southerncross said:
I sense a lot of the sentiment lost in translation Pirroco. I only speak and write and understand in English myself full stop, so thumbs up to you for getting your point across in a second language.
I am wondering though if you base the above interpretation ( the original post) on only the Comex itself rather than the world market ? If so what are your thoughts on the information contained in the link I posted above ?
I personally do not see decades ahead before the inevitable crash of western fiat, 3-5-10 yrs at the most. The Goose is already stuffed and cooked, all we are waiting on is the vegetables and gravy.
If you do infact base your decisions purely on the comex alone why so , and why discount the rest of the world market in silver and gold?
The Comex amount positions is one of the elements that I keep an eye on.
I start to draw conclusions when I see alot elements all pointing in the same direction.
When they don't contradict eachother, but support eachother.
I see now hanging silver stocks of Exchange Traded Funds (Sprott's PSLV is an exception but matters little since relatively small).
I see now on auction sites alot new or long inactive people selling what looks together as all their silver.
I see now the spot price dropping without the amount positions on the futures market dropping too. Some months ago we had $35 with the same total position as now.
I see how the spending rate of the banking systems excess reserves stalled (except for a US sudden big spike ahead of elections).
If I put these elements together, it looks like an end-of-'bull run' story, where the last wave newbies absorbing the sold off silver at a top, to then stay in the red for years.
The price uptrend since 15 august was already preceeded by another shift from nonfutures to futures. The latters total position increased (12000 to 23000) without the price increasing too, meaning that alot sold there too. The price uptrend showed a high amount futures positions per price dollar. That indicates that those that sold end juli / first weeks of august, did not buy back in.
The TFmetals report you linked states that the total futures position increased with a declining price. Re-read this line a few times to understand the relation that is given.
What does this mean?
The TFmetals author claims that US banks "are having difficulty keeping a lid on the market".
That the US banks thus control the gold price less than before.
I don't understand the logic of the author. Because according to my logic, it's exactly the opposite.
I already explained it here above - if the spot price drops and their total position increases, then that means that the price would have dropped more if they did NOT increase their amount positions. They avoided the price to drop more. To me, it's very clear and logical that other sides of the market sold off.
Now, what does this mean in the aspect of controlling a market?
Who controls a market?
Those that buy its product and thus hold stocks of it?
Or those that sold its product and effectively left the market?
My logic says the first. Those that hold stocks of it. They control the price.
The TFmetals author claims the opposite. To me, that is clearly wrong. Those nonfutures market traders that sold gold / silver, gave away their control with it. They are now depending on the willingness of those US banks on the futures market, to dump their positions. So it's the opposite, the US banks control the market MORE. Not less. They now have it easier to keep a lid on the market.
About looking decades ahead, it's not that difficult, if you understand the macro economical manipulation scheme that is the foundation of todays system as we know it, and the famous sentence 'history repeats itself' applicates here once again.
The last decades, a rather big resources shift happened on the market as a whole.
From private to government. From the net producing part of the population to the net parasiting part of the population.
This is a trend seen many times in history. And it always ended the same way: it ran into human, technological and time limits.
Because producing new money (fiatmoney didnt came into existence in 1970, it exists as long as government - thousands years) has no consequences on prices as long as the producing population part is able to increase its production at the same cost.
In 2006-2007 they actually ran into these limits and the two sides of the situation (if I can describe them like this) met eachother, due to accelerating price increasings which brought the debt side finally into trouble. The lower manipulated intrest rates (which are in a true marketplace a reward for working harder/better) didnt suffice anymore to erase their obligation to pay back in terms of purchasing power, fast enough. It resulted in this crisis since 2008.
To predict decades ahead, it only needs one question to be answered: do you think that the ever shrinking producing part of the population will once again manage to overcome the Legalized Theft?
In the eighties, there were many major technological advances. Especially computers. They overcame the crisis then. Automation in every aspect of production and distribution and recycling.
Now warp to today.
Look at the dimensions of todays modern production. They mine commodities including our silver with monster machines and mass production and following strict time schedules in order to remain profitable. In order to avoid Depression, it requires them to repeat this post 1980's story. Unless some aliens warp in, or a new continent is discovered, I give it no chance.
That leaves the parasiting population part to do something about itself. What do we see? Take for ex that latest US unemployment report. It's positive. But take a closer look. Over 70% of the new 'jobs' are for government. This is just more of the crisis (see the market shift). Look at the amount regulation and taxes they added. Here in Europe, the central planning is gonna control all bigger system banks and any bank. They already controlled them in the past decades, so nothing new, but this official way is routing out the very solution of a monetary crisis: a (real!) private bank that does the banking job according to what the producing population part wants, NOT according to what the parasiting part wants.
So, this is clearly an end of a supercycle and this means a Depression is next.
But there is now a new element, that was so far unseen in the long term history: the lack of alternatives.
A correction typically origins in people going for alternatives.
A small and recent example: the African state Zimbabwe, where their dollar hyperinflated into the void because people moved to foreign currencies and/or fled the country and/or went to black markets based on smuggling from foreign origins.
This brought a correction within a relatively short period. Just like in any system, the higher the frequency of corrections, the smaller they are and the easier it is to adapt/adjust.
The new element is that the central planning started to operate on the world level, and the problem thus reached the world scale.
This is the same as the former Warschaw Pact, but without another side of the Wall and thus not even a need for a Wall.
So this time, the situation can become severely worse. It could be named as a 'zero-crossing'. Infrastructure that detoriates into ruins.
Cannibalism applied on working machinery to repair nonworking machinery.
To the point that even the light goes out.
Because the parasiting part of the population has the nasty habit to refuse until there is nothing left to steal.
And this last, applied on the globe, is quite ugly.
In some past (1912) the current system - the devil triangle economy>currency>politics, was once again brought into place.
John Maynard Keynes wanted to be able to spend deficits. Irving Fisher wanted a banking system that would cover this spending.
5 years later, the "Liberty-bond" issued by the Federal Reserve sponsored the US World War I activities.
Basically the very same as todays treasury/state bonds buying that central banks do all over the world.
The subsequent 'Roaring Twenties' saw massive deficit spending.
The two sides of the situation (see above) met eachother a decade later, where the Great Depression of the 19th century got renamed to Depression due to the bigger new one.
It caused some serious economical destruction that laid the foundation for another ugly decade: the road towards World War II.
Technological advances there, allowed to recover. Still, the world already transformed into a bipolar human world, the Warschaw Pact and the NATO, both with their own version of the same fascism they claimed to have routed out, and the very first world central planning entities (alike the IMF).
The deficit spending and market shift once again worsened. The modern incarnation of 'fiatmoney' was pushed through.
The EU central planning came into existence and started to work together to uniformly spread their inflation over the multicurrencies system.
In the late 1970's, the two sides of the situation found eachother once again.
But as before, the producing population part overcame it, by shrinking and working harder.
A situation that lasted until the early 1990's, where the Soviet Union went bankrupt and desintegrated to move to the smarter Western fascist model of disguised central planning.
Alot of the satellite states were absorbed by the EU central planning system, and its governments started to force-shift resources across the whole, much similar to the former Warschaw Pact.
Recognized the Red line to worldwide centralisation here? Similar to how the 9-11 event was used to introduce drastic limitations of freedom, the 2008 crisis was used to introduce drastic worldwide central planning. The fast currency swap facilities that they brought into place, makes that the devil triangle is now spanning the world.
We see the results every day, but because it all happened gradually, we got time to get used to it and find it 'normal'.
But look at how the amount smaller companies is reducing every decade. Their scale of operation doesnt allow them to survive the effects of the devil triangle.
We will end up with a few multinationals and some 'social-economics' heavily sponsored by governments, with nothing but the void outside them.
Project this trend of the past decades into the future. The same, but more of it. It doesn't need a superbrain to realize what will happen over some decades. The zero-crossing.
It's not the fiat that is gonna crash. That can only happen in a competing currencies environment and their snake in the tunnel currencies manipulation method destroys the competetive element. It's the economy that is gonna detoriate into Depression. Many years situation look-alikes of the former communism. Queues. Tickets. Look already at today. The same, but everywhere you look. Until as said above, the light goes out. Not by war bombing, but simply because the producing part of the population ceased to exist.
So you may have realized by now, that I'm placing silvers situation in a much bigger context than you thought.
A while ago, I also thought a quick crash was on the way. But after getting insight in the macro economical level that the central planning operates on, things look much more worse than a quick crash. Any crash is a market/people based correction that forced itself through. A slowly detoriating economy until a zero crossing, is much worser. And this gradual approach is exactly what the central planning uses. Their goal is to spread their inflation uniformly over the world. Every day you see a tiny bit more consequence of it. When the light goes out, alot will still not realize why.
And they will still blame nature and egoism instead of the mirror.
So my entire story in one line: At the moment (important detail) I see no hurry to buy silver, haha.
Alot of above may get lost in translation though. It's not hard to learn English words, but often a specific context requires specific words despite they translate to the same.
In that case, you can safely ignore my post. I'm just one of the many peons that come... and go.
