damien192x
New Member
What kind of BS is this, opening up a graph, drawing lines, circling things, and then telling people the price could go up or down?
No shit. Now pick one.
No shit. Now pick one.
Technical Analysis
- Thread starter damien192x
- Start date
damien192x said:
TA and mathematical equations based around machine learning are all you have to make money on the markets (legitimately of course). Using algorithms like linear regression on massive vector dataset of stocks is how the big banks make billions of dollars. Does that sh*t crash markets ... yeh it does, does it work all the time ... na it doesn't, but if you happen to be making the trades during the 90% where there isnt a massive downturn, make millions 3/5 days you trade for the bank, you wil start to believe you have just hit the alpha ..
There are patterns in the data if you know what kind of parameters to pick and if you have the right equations ... they are the same equations that google uses to guess what word you might be typing even before you type it
how does google know from the trillions of page when you type something what you actually mean, how does it know to put it on the first page, when you start typing in the box how from the trillions of pages does it start to guess your word and put it in the dropdown just under the search bar. Using TA and quant analysis methods you can do the same thing with stocks and pick the most likely outcome (which with google search) im sure many times it is correct, but also at times might also be incorrect too ... but looking at how many times google gets it right vs how many times it gets it wrong, if you had a method that could get you the same odds with stocks im sure you would use it
ReturnToZero
New Member
pmstacker said:damien192x said:
TA and mathematical equations based around machine learning are all you have to make money on the markets (legitimately of course). Using algorithms like linear regression on massive vector dataset of stocks is how the big banks make billions of dollars. Does that sh*t crash markets ... yeh it does, does it work all the time ... na it doesn't, but if you happen to be making the trades during the 90% where there isnt a massive downturn, make millions 3/5 days you trade for the bank, you wil start to believe you have just hit the alpha ..
There are patterns in the data if you know what kind of parameters to pick and if you have the right equations ... they are the same equations that google uses to guess what word you might be typing even before you type it
Using TA and quant analysis methods you can do the same thing with stocks and pick the most likely outcome (which with google search) im sure many times it is correct, but also at times might also be incorrect too ... but looking at how many times google gets it right vs how many times it gets it wrong, if you had a method that could get you the same odds with stocks im sure you would use it
That is the biggest pile of crap I have ever read.
Big banks make money with algo's by finding small mispricing and arbitrage quicker than any natural person can, not by using TA to guess where the markets are going in the short/medium or long term.
All short, medium and long term trades are made with fundamental analysis and privileged information. Banks don't put millions on the line because a line is pointing up.
Google knows what you're about to type next based on what's trending, not that stuff you just made up.
Anyone that works in finance will tell you charting is full of crap. No-one got rich by drawing lines on a chart. Have a chat with any broker about TA and they'll roll their eyes and laugh at you.
You talk like you're one of the big boys at a big bank but you sound more like a kid who just read a lot of stuff on Google.
ReturnToZero said:pmstacker said:damien192x said:
TA and mathematical equations based around machine learning are all you have to make money on the markets (legitimately of course). Using algorithms like linear regression on massive vector dataset of stocks is how the big banks make billions of dollars. Does that sh*t crash markets ... yeh it does, does it work all the time ... na it doesn't, but if you happen to be making the trades during the 90% where there isnt a massive downturn, make millions 3/5 days you trade for the bank, you wil start to believe you have just hit the alpha ..
There are patterns in the data if you know what kind of parameters to pick and if you have the right equations ... they are the same equations that google uses to guess what word you might be typing even before you type it
Using TA and quant analysis methods you can do the same thing with stocks and pick the most likely outcome (which with google search) im sure many times it is correct, but also at times might also be incorrect too ... but looking at how many times google gets it right vs how many times it gets it wrong, if you had a method that could get you the same odds with stocks im sure you would use it
That is the biggest pile of crap I have ever read.
Big banks make money with algo's by finding small mispricing and arbitrage quicker than any natural person can, not by using TA to guess where the markets are going in the short/medium or long term.
All short, medium and long term trades are made with fundamental analysis and privileged information. Banks don't put millions on the line because a line is pointing up.
Google knows what you're about to type next based on what's trending, not that stuff you just made up.
Anyone that works in finance will tell you charting is full of crap. No-one got rich by drawing lines on a chart. Have a chat with any broker about TA and they'll roll their eyes and laugh at you.
You talk like you're one of the big boys at a big bank but you sound more like a kid who just read a lot of stuff on Google.
OK i read it of google what ever, i dont get into arguments about this cause i know what i know. So i ain't gonna respond back to the personals
You might be looking at one example of using arbitrage which is fine and which is correct. But there are MANY different ways to use ML to determine prices of stocks, determining risk. There are ways to classify stocks and trade based on classification, there are ways to do arbitrage (which you said and which is right) and you can use basic algos to work out the price of stocks and options in future. I have worked with these algos on data sets and seen how its done. I have used them to work with other data sets also such as finding patterns in peoples shopping habits ... a misprice represents its self as a certain pattern also. The difference between finding peoples shopping habits and another area is the input vectors , you need a financial expert to determine what data needs to be fed to determine risk and determine a trade but the high level algo is the same.
With respect to TA, When someone uses TA and says heads and shoulders pattern its because some PHD determined in the past that when this pattern arises in the charts in many cases it means that X will happen. A head and shoulders or whatever other patter is a plot of the price over time, if you see that that pattern is formed and in more then a certain percentage it ends in *lower prices* then as a TA guy you use that as an indicator.
NOT everyone can understand why a head and shoulders pattern may lead to a certain outcome mathematically or from its core equations but its a template that people who do TA can use, its easier and it works many times so its a tool based on something deeper. Like when someone gives you a forumla to find something. You dont need to know how they got it all you need to know is that it just works (most of the time cause you need whatever tools you got exposure to).
WHY would a certain pattern mean a certain thing IF there wasn't a long line of training examples of seeing that pattern result in similar outcomes most of the time ? a pattern means nothing if there wasn't previous examples of it leading to the same outcome right ..
And yes .. google uses trending, it might use trending with a combination of levinstien distance and some sort of profile built about you over time. Again what does that mean, it knows about you, its created an input vector of you as a person and given that when you type something from the data its managed to collect about you over time it can guess what you want. Do you know that if you have a google account it puts a cookie on your computer and when you visit sites that use google analytics a profile about the sites you visit is built up about you. Hence if you notice ads targeted to you are actually related to your interests. Again whats this, the data set of what you visit is stored based on this data set algos are used to determine what you might like , a prediction of what you might like ..
Which is why i always log out of my gmail account after i finish using it
Bulawan pilak
New Member
There seems to be a pattern in this thread.....maybe we could make a chart and analyse who is going to comment next......lol.......steady......easy...... 
ReturnToZero
New Member
pmstacker said:ReturnToZero said:pmstacker said:TA and mathematical equations based around machine learning are all you have to make money on the markets (legitimately of course). Using algorithms like linear regression on massive vector dataset of stocks is how the big banks make billions of dollars. Does that sh*t crash markets ... yeh it does, does it work all the time ... na it doesn't, but if you happen to be making the trades during the 90% where there isnt a massive downturn, make millions 3/5 days you trade for the bank, you wil start to believe you have just hit the alpha ..
There are patterns in the data if you know what kind of parameters to pick and if you have the right equations ... they are the same equations that google uses to guess what word you might be typing even before you type it
Using TA and quant analysis methods you can do the same thing with stocks and pick the most likely outcome (which with google search) im sure many times it is correct, but also at times might also be incorrect too ... but looking at how many times google gets it right vs how many times it gets it wrong, if you had a method that could get you the same odds with stocks im sure you would use it
That is the biggest pile of crap I have ever read.
Big banks make money with algo's by finding small mispricing and arbitrage quicker than any natural person can, not by using TA to guess where the markets are going in the short/medium or long term.
All short, medium and long term trades are made with fundamental analysis and privileged information. Banks don't put millions on the line because a line is pointing up.
Google knows what you're about to type next based on what's trending, not that stuff you just made up.
Anyone that works in finance will tell you charting is full of crap. No-one got rich by drawing lines on a chart. Have a chat with any broker about TA and they'll roll their eyes and laugh at you.
You talk like you're one of the big boys at a big bank but you sound more like a kid who just read a lot of stuff on Google.
OK i read it of google what ever, i dont get into arguments about this cause i know what i know. You might be looking at one example of using arbitrage which is fine. But there are MANY different ways to use ML to determine prices of stocks. There are ways to classify stocks and trade based on classification, there are ways to do arbitrage (which you said and which is right) and you can use basic algos to work out the price of stocks and options in future. I have worked with these algos on data sets and seen how its done. I have used them to work with other data sets also such as finding patterns in peoples shopping habits ... a misprice represents its self as a certain pattern also.
When someone uses TA and says heads and shoulders pattern its because some PHD determined that when this pattern arises in the charts in many cases it means that X will happen. NOT everyone can understand why a head and shoulders pattern may lead to a certain outcome from its core equations but its a template that people who do TA can use. Like when someone gives you a forumla to find something. You dont need to know how they got it all you need to know is that it just works.
WHY would a certain pattern mean a certain thing IF there wasn't a long line of train examples of seeing that pattern result in similar outcomes most of the time ?
And you know what happens when any sort of "pattern" forms? Something fundamental comes out, like the Europeans announcing that they are going to nuke Greece. What happens to your patterns then?
Markets are driven by fundamentals and sentiment, not by charts. You can't chart fundamentals or sentiment. The macro environment has no rules. Rather than sitting in the drivers seat and wondering why a car is going one way, you are trying to build the road for the car to drive on based on it's current trajectory - the moment it turns for no apparent reason, you will lose. At least in the seat of the car you can guess.
Have you also noticed a certain pattern with people who swear by TA? Yeah, none of them are rich. Explain that.
RomanControl
New Member
as of the time of this post, the us dollar is tanking, Id like to convert my silver to us dollars temporarily in this situation then wait for the exchange rate to slingshot back and convert back.
Is there a way to do this without being under the eye of the government?
Is there a way to do this without being under the eye of the government?
ReturnToZero said:pmstacker said:ReturnToZero said:
OK i read it of google what ever, i dont get into arguments about this cause i know what i know. You might be looking at one example of using arbitrage which is fine. But there are MANY different ways to use ML to determine prices of stocks. There are ways to classify stocks and trade based on classification, there are ways to do arbitrage (which you said and which is right) and you can use basic algos to work out the price of stocks and options in future. I have worked with these algos on data sets and seen how its done. I have used them to work with other data sets also such as finding patterns in peoples shopping habits ... a misprice represents its self as a certain pattern also.
When someone uses TA and says heads and shoulders pattern its because some PHD determined that when this pattern arises in the charts in many cases it means that X will happen. NOT everyone can understand why a head and shoulders pattern may lead to a certain outcome from its core equations but its a template that people who do TA can use. Like when someone gives you a forumla to find something. You dont need to know how they got it all you need to know is that it just works.
WHY would a certain pattern mean a certain thing IF there wasn't a long line of train examples of seeing that pattern result in similar outcomes most of the time ?
And you know what happens when any sort of "pattern" forms? Something fundamental comes out, like the Europeans announcing that they are going to nuke Greece. What happens to your patterns then?
Markets are driven by fundamentals and sentiment, not by charts. You can't chart fundamentals or sentiment. The macro environment has no rules. Rather than sitting in the drivers seat and wondering why a car is going one way, you are trying to build the road for the car to drive on based on it's current trajectory - the moment it turns for no apparent reason, you will lose. At least in the seat of the car you can guess.
Have you also noticed a certain pattern with people who swear by TA? Yeah, none of them are rich. Explain that.
I did .....
And dude I TOTALY agree with you, in good times Quant Analysis works charms, im not advocating that its the best thing to use over all tho, when did i say that ?! i was just stating that there are fundamentally *logical* reasons WHY drawing a line might MEAN a certain outcome, just trying to help the original poster understand that drawling a line isn't just drawing a line, there is a logical REASON behind it thats all.
As a matter of fact i always question how the banks trade even now using their trading systems, does it still work with these uncertain times, what did they change to still make profits or have they turned of the computers and done more fundamental based trading, I full well know you cant model ben Bernanke in a computer well you could if you coded an entity that just started adding zero's to the worlds money supply LOL, or someone nuking someone else, well you could and give it a very low probability JUST like they did when the housing market collapsed where i presume in all their models the possibility of housing collapse would have been given a very small probabiluty .. but in all seriousness you cant model whats happening in the world today cause these are uncertain times, but say during 2000 - 2007 i can see how it was possible and how a CRAP load of traders could have made a CRAP load of money doing it ..
And if someone could actually do it ... well ... he would be the master of the universe ...
ReturnToZero
New Member
pmstacker said:ReturnToZero said:pmstacker said:
OK i read it of google what ever, i dont get into arguments about this cause i know what i know. You might be looking at one example of using arbitrage which is fine. But there are MANY different ways to use ML to determine prices of stocks. There are ways to classify stocks and trade based on classification, there are ways to do arbitrage (which you said and which is right) and you can use basic algos to work out the price of stocks and options in future. I have worked with these algos on data sets and seen how its done. I have used them to work with other data sets also such as finding patterns in peoples shopping habits ... a misprice represents its self as a certain pattern also.
When someone uses TA and says heads and shoulders pattern its because some PHD determined that when this pattern arises in the charts in many cases it means that X will happen. NOT everyone can understand why a head and shoulders pattern may lead to a certain outcome from its core equations but its a template that people who do TA can use. Like when someone gives you a forumla to find something. You dont need to know how they got it all you need to know is that it just works.
WHY would a certain pattern mean a certain thing IF there wasn't a long line of train examples of seeing that pattern result in similar outcomes most of the time ?
And you know what happens when any sort of "pattern" forms? Something fundamental comes out, like the Europeans announcing that they are going to nuke Greece. What happens to your patterns then?
Markets are driven by fundamentals and sentiment, not by charts. You can't chart fundamentals or sentiment. The macro environment has no rules. Rather than sitting in the drivers seat and wondering why a car is going one way, you are trying to build the road for the car to drive on based on it's current trajectory - the moment it turns for no apparent reason, you will lose. At least in the seat of the car you can guess.
Have you also noticed a certain pattern with people who swear by TA? Yeah, none of them are rich. Explain that.
I did .....
And dude I TOTALY agree with you, in good times Quant Analysis works charms, im not advocating that its the best thing to use over all tho, when did i say that ?! i was just stating that there are fundamentally *logical* reasons WHY drawing a line might MEAN a certain outcome, just trying to help the original poster understand that drawling a line isn't just drawing a line, there is a logical REASON behind it thats all.
As a matter of fact i always question how the banks trade even now, you cant model ben Bernanke in a computer well you could if you coded an entity that just started adding zero's to the worlds money supply LOL .. but in all seriousness you cant model whats happening in the world today cause these are uncertain times, but say during 2000 - 2007 i can see how it was possible and how a CRAP load of traders could have made a CRAP load of money doing it ..
in 2000 - 2007, traders made a CRAP load of money by just going long and gearing it. That's all they needed to do, nothing else. Charts aren't needed to make returns during that time.
The good old days aren't coming back, intervention is only going to get worse and markets will probably get even more volatile. If you want to make money now, either play the fundamental macro game by waiting for all of this to blow over, or if you got the time, play the fundamental micro game and pick long term winners.
I've had a lot of experience with proprietary quant & qual models (I maintained one), bloomberg "PHD" indicators, I've even had GSJBW build me quant reports for 20k a pop - none of them work.
ReturnToZero said:
Im sure the good old times are not coming back either, even in silver i remember when a two dollar drop was considered a *dip* , now its just normal. When i stay up at night to get the first few hours opening of the AMEX all i use charts for are to see what the price is of whatever im looking at nothing else. Im either trying to find the latest article to see what the fed is going to do, what just happened in europe after a meeting or any other type of fundamental information. Based on that, i click few buttons or i don't click a few buttons then go to bed ...
Turk
Active Member
MelbBrad said:
That's a very interesting comment, and it's something I often think about. One thing I've noticed (and this is not a hard and fast rule, but a general observation) is that even manipulation has its limits. Yes, it can wreak havoc with the short term picture, but I think I'm starting to observe that the MORE you mess with the short term picture, the 'wider' the TA-type signals become, and consequently the more powerful (and perhaps slow) they become. It's like you need to zoom out of the picture to get rid of the short term noise.
Anyone else ever notice this, or is it just my imagination?
ReturnToZero
New Member
pmstacker said:
Yeah mate, it's probably better to just read the news these days and have some dry powder ready for the macro game, in case Europe somehow does something to fix everything... Even if it's just temporary. And even then, we got the American problem. Chances are we will just go in to a slow burn and everyone becomes poor and we get taken over by Asia.
FA and TA both work together hand-in-hand FA helps decide the why, what and which; while TA helps out with the when.
Turk: I think the larger the market, the more true "Manipulation has its limits" is. e.g. the currency market (largest market), insofar I have observed before, in 2003/2004, USD/JPY was in a big down-trend when Japan tried to intervene in the forex market by printing Yen and buying 300+ billion US dollars... it still failed as the USD/JPY continued much lower due to market pressures.
Same thing happened when Swiss National Bank intervened for the EUR/CHF, the relief was very temporary, as it could do nothing much to stop the strengthening of the Swiss vs. Euro due to market pressures...
FA helps decide the why, what and which; while TA helps out with the when.Turk: I think the larger the market, the more true "Manipulation has its limits" is. e.g. the currency market (largest market), insofar I have observed before, in 2003/2004, USD/JPY was in a big down-trend when Japan tried to intervene in the forex market by printing Yen and buying 300+ billion US dollars... it still failed as the USD/JPY continued much lower due to market pressures.
Same thing happened when Swiss National Bank intervened for the EUR/CHF, the relief was very temporary, as it could do nothing much to stop the strengthening of the Swiss vs. Euro due to market pressures...
Dirtbikepilot
Active Member
It's all a bit like the weather isn't it? "Mostly sunny with possible cloud and showers."
"We will see a significant rise in silver today with the possibility of a decline in silver prices."
I am so going to become a PM's forecaster. An oz of silver and I will send you a daily forecast for free.
"We will see a significant rise in silver today with the possibility of a decline in silver prices."
I am so going to become a PM's forecaster. An oz of silver and I will send you a daily forecast for free.
Dirtbikepilot
Active Member
went to edit my last post and created a new one. You can have this for free as well :lol:
Just thought id post this video to give a very basic idea of what we were discussing in the first few posts, its a bit of an IBM promo but it does give an idea of the scope of where alot of the stuff that people use in financial markets originate from. As the guys in the video say, the systems are used for anything, whether its financial data or any other sort of data, its about the needle in the haystack, the patterns in the data. I tried to find something alittle more indepth but the videos are either too deep (start talking about the mathematical equations) or to high level. This video at least gives an idea of how the models are queried.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IV6mfWWMIVg[/youtube]
This video atleast gives some examples of how neural networks are used to predict the price of the stock given the current stock data, neural networks are algorithms that function in the machine learning area. The bottom part is the predicted prices given the top prices. The actual description of the video is as follows
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JI9CGMQu-4I[/youtube]
Of course these things get it wrong but its just another tool that you can use ontop of FA to make a bet (cause essentially thats what trading is LOL) As a result of these things certain patterns are understood and these patterns are then used by people who do TA (head shoulders whatever else). TA of course is very crude cause its trying to commoditize knowledge which you cant but which again is just another tool that you can use.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IV6mfWWMIVg[/youtube]
This video atleast gives some examples of how neural networks are used to predict the price of the stock given the current stock data, neural networks are algorithms that function in the machine learning area. The bottom part is the predicted prices given the top prices. The actual description of the video is as follows
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JI9CGMQu-4I[/youtube]
Of course these things get it wrong but its just another tool that you can use ontop of FA to make a bet (cause essentially thats what trading is LOL) As a result of these things certain patterns are understood and these patterns are then used by people who do TA (head shoulders whatever else). TA of course is very crude cause its trying to commoditize knowledge which you cant but which again is just another tool that you can use.