Sub $30 silver - will it be possible to find anything to buy?

B

Billythekid

New Member
I purchased some 10 Oz bars from the PM the other day when spot was about $32. I also wanted some smaller coins, but found (ordering via their website) that my choice was limited (silver wise) to 10 oz or 100 oz bars.

Assuming you are only making relatively small purchases, what are your thoughts as the price of silver drops? Its OK to say that you are saving cash to 'back up the truck', when the price drops, but what if there is little to put in the truck when that happens.

I mean, with demand the way it is at the moment ($32 Oz), when i ordered they didn't have any 1/2 Oz, 1 Oz, 2 Oz, 5 Oz, or 10 Oz silver coins at all.

Will we all be standing around with silver at $20 or something, cashed up, but with limited options???

Bill
 
Yes. There was silver around last time it dropped from $39ish to $26 (figures might not be quite right - whatever the big drop after Easter this year was).
 
Billythekid said:
Will we all be standing around with silver at $20 or something, cashed up, but with limited options???

Bill
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I believe you have found the problem with 'buying the dips'... In my recent experience the local dealers here in Melbourne have little or no stock available on days when Silver spot is close to $30-$31. Or the stock they have, has been purchased too high and the premium is greater to reflect what they had to pay for it!

When I was buying at higher prices there was plenty to go around, but as soon as the dips arrive all the dealer's stock disappears out the back of the shop for a spell.

No point having a 'buy the dips' strategy if all you end up with is a wasted day and a pocket overflowing with devaluing Fiat... :-(

Curious
 
Come jan feb there will be plenty of half, 2 and 5oz availabe from the mint when they go back into production. Well until Everyone on here buys it all up
 
Just had another thought. I suppose you could purchase something like a Pooled Allocated product (PM depository account). I think it's 5K minimum purchases each time, but at least you can lock in any possible low price immediately. They pour it into a giant bar, keep it safe for you, and you can collect it later if you want...

Bill
 
Curious said:
Or the stock they have, has been purchased too high and the premium is greater to reflect what they had to pay for it!
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Not how dealing works - what matters is the price you can replace stock at. With wholesale ordering of various size bars regularly being suspended due to inventory levels at the mint, it's frustrating to receive enquiries for say 10kg of silver bars and having to advise a potential customer (and usually try to convince them to believe you) that they simply aren't available for order, and that a price can't even be locked in for future delivery.
 
goldpelican said:
Curious said:
Or the stock they have, has been purchased too high and the premium is greater to reflect what they had to pay for it!
Click to expand...

Not how dealing works - what matters is the price you can replace stock at.
Click to expand...

That's how I understood it works... If i ring a dealer and they quote me a price, what they are really doing is telling me what the cost of a simultaneous parallel buy is going to cost them. Because they are essentially just immediately replacing the stock they are about to sell to me? yeah?

Therefore to a dealer it matters not what the metal price is, as long as they can arrange an immediate parallel buy. The dealer doesn't lose out - so they shouldn't feel the need to 'hide' stock out the back, as spot price drops, as it makes no difference to them.

Bill
 
Recommend that you open a PMDS account. Yes it is $5000 minimum, and until you have a balance of $50,000, you'll be charged 2% on each purchase. So get an account setup (takes about a week), and just have it ready for use when prices go through the floor. There's no charge if you don't use the account. To buy, you must have a deposit of x% (forget the number) either as cash or existing metal. But bank transfer only takes 24 hrs.

And when you want some of your silver fabricated, you pick how you want it done; eg. bars/coins/size. You do not have to get it allocated and/or delivered to you all at once. As you say, the problem with dealers is they don't want to sell when prices crash, but Perth Mint has no problem selling to you.

Not sure what the deal is about buying online through Perth Mint - if they are all out, as I've not done it this way before.
 
The funny thing about the price of silver is that however manipulated it is, it is the result of buyers and sellers in the marketplace. Whatever the price of silver is trading at, you can always buy at that price and don't let people tell you otherwise (these same people were recommending to go all in 100% silver when it was in the $40s! :)).

When silver gets absolutely hammered people panic and get afraid, sure there are hardcore stackers with powder ready to deploy but the average punter is scared and buying dries up. Back in late 2008 somebody I know took delivery of a nice size stack purchased sub-$12 CAD when it had been trading over $20 not 6 months earlier so yeah, you can find the stuff.

Just look at the situation now, this year we've gone from a high of $48.70 US in London to sub $30 and where are these supposed silver shortages???
 
goldpelican said:
Curious said:
Or the stock they have, has been purchased too high and the premium is greater to reflect what they had to pay for it!
Click to expand...

Not how dealing works - what matters is the price you can replace stock at. With wholesale ordering of various size bars regularly being suspended due to inventory levels at the mint, it's frustrating to receive enquiries for say 10kg of silver bars and having to advise a potential customer (and usually try to convince them to believe you) that they simply aren't available for order, and that a price can't even be locked in for future delivery.
Click to expand...

Thanks GP,

I realise I can order at current prices and wait for delivery (and have done that more recently) but I like to be able to buy the stuff that's displayed and available for the immediate taking if I can. Several shops have given me the same excuse for not letting their displayed stock go for the daily price "we paid more that for it two days ago so will only sell it for the higher amount"... their words not mine.

Cheers, Curious
 
oasis said:
The funny thing about the price of silver is that however manipulated it is, it is the result of buyers and sellers in the marketplace. Whatever the price of silver is trading at, you can always buy at that price and don't let people tell you otherwise (these same people were recommending to go all in 100% silver when it was in the $40s! :)).

When silver gets absolutely hammered people panic and get afraid, sure there are hardcore stackers with powder ready to deploy but the average punter is scared and buying dries up. Back in late 2008 somebody I know took delivery of a nice size stack purchased sub-$12 CAD when it had been trading over $20 not 6 months earlier so yeah, you can find the stuff.

Just look at the situation now, this year we've gone from a high of $48.70 US in London to sub $30 and where are these supposed silver shortages???
Click to expand...

I actually find it is easy to buy silver when the price has dropped but very difficult to sell it as everyone seems nervous about it dropping further. Fair enough I guess but it always makes me laugh when I read the posts about "backing up the truck" if silver drops below X - when it does these same people seem to be very quiet.

malachii
 
Billythekid said:
...Will we all be standing around with silver at $20 or something, cashed up, but with limited options???

Bill
Click to expand...

Tested this theory again today, did the rounds visiting the local 5 dealers and the same story as last time "paid $1050/$1150/$1200 for it so can't let it go for less" (which is understandable) only glitch is that now they won't take money up front on an order for the future...

So far Bill you are proven correct, I am one stacker standing around with Silver at $26+, cashed up, but no PM for me!

Apparently the truck can be backed up all the way...but it'l be driving home just as empty as it came...

Cheers, Curious
 
I've had no trouble at all finding the silver I need - lots of places unloading this time. I've had a little trouble unloading some that I got at a good price to others at a good price. People seem to be worried that it's going to crash a lot further so wont even buy absolute bargains. Can't work that one out but that leads us back to the same old arguements with R/E. Just because the market is crashing/booming - doesn't mean there aren't bargains and ripoffs available.

malachii
 
malachii said:
I've had no trouble at all finding the silver I need - lots of places unloading this time. I've had a little trouble unloading some that I got at a good price to others at a good price. People seem to be worried that it's going to crash a lot further so wont even buy absolute bargains. Can't work that one out but that leads us back to the same old arguements with R/E. Just because the market is crashing/booming - doesn't mean there aren't bargains and ripoffs available.

malachii
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Thanks for the response Malachii,

Any chance you'd be willing to point in the direction of the places that are unloading? :D

Cheers, Curious
 
Matthew 26:14 said:
Buy online then, can get pamp 1 kilos for $900 easily ($28 an oz).
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That is certainly my fallback position, however if stores are unloading I'd be happy to front up with the moola and take some kilos away :D
 
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