Steve Keen

Topherclaus

Topherclaus

Active Member
I've only come across him tonight and I like what he is putting down, it makes a lot of sense to me.

Apart from him getting his big call that the Aussie housing market would collapse in the last recession, is there anything else about his analysis that we should be hesitant about? In his defence the continued growth does make sense with his explanation. But then again I had to keep putting down Mein Kampf because I found myself agreeing with his leading information too. Haha.

Any exceptional work of his, good or bad, would be nice too. If you could comment with those to avoid hours of scouring.
 
I've nothing in particular against Steve Keen, however he is an academic and so his view is 'academic'. I tend to follow, or at least take more notice of, real traders and people with 'skin in the game' these days.
 
JulieW said:
I've nothing in particular against Steve Keen, however he is an academic and so his view is 'academic'. I tend to follow, or at least take more notice of, real traders and people with 'skin in the game' these days.
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I guess it depends on what you're looking to get out of the information. I think someone who devotes themselves to understanding it at an academic level definitely will find things that traders do not. Especially given that he goes against the grain of standard economist rhetoric (which is clearly how we got where we are). I think most people who look into it even superficially can see that things aren't right but it is very interesting to see why explained in depth.

Edit: I agree that people with skin in the game are likely to have a pretty solid grasp on it all as well; I do follow traders too. I guess I'm just getting an interest in macroeconomics.
 
I tend to follow, or at least take more notice of, real traders and people with 'skin in the game' these days.

Offline

Where were those with skin in the game in 2008/09..I'll tell you where? The big boys were deciding how to save their own skins..

Regards Errol 43
 
He lost me with his "Debt Jubilee" idea. Never generated much if any support around the world. FAR too many winners and losers for it to be anything but a huge mess!

Maybe he had a big mortgage and little money in the bank, but his socialist leaning is a BIG handicap to my view of him.

JMO


OC
 
Well I had skin in the game before 2008/2009, during 2008/2009 and after 2008/2009 and I can tell you that you would have done far better NOT listening to Steve Keen for the last decade than you would have if you had.

If I remember rightly he had to walk from Canberra to somewhere (Mt Kosiosko??) in 2010 because he lost a stupid bet about house prices and how they would fall. All his ardent supporters said he just got the timing wrong and here we are 6 or so years later and he still has his timing wrong and prices are far more expensive. How long should you wait for him to be right and how much money are you losing by waiting?

Like any other "guru" back test his calls and investments and see what the results are. I think you'll find he has not got it right with any consistency. Like any academic they look at generalisations not specifics and make grandiose judgements from that. History is littered with academic calls of certainty that have ended up being the complete opposite of reality. I still don't know of ANY academics on the BRW Rich 200 list. And like the old saying goes - if there was money in academics, Packer would own some (ok - I slightly bastardised that one :) )

Real estate is like any other investment. There are really good buys and really bad buys all the time whether the market is at the top or at the bottom. I've seen many people make money buying at the top and lose money buying at the bottom. It all depends on the deal, how it is structured and what you are going to do with it. A bargain to me may not be to you and vice versa because of our intentions and how the deal is structured.

Just remember - if you know what you are doing the deal of a lifetime comes along about every 2 weeks.

malachii
 
To be fair to Keen, 1. who would have thought interest rates would go to record lows and stay that way and 2. who would have thought our government would fully deregulate foreign ownership of housing allowing the Chinese market to buy up anything they want.

And for any fool that believed the governments big crack down talk here are some stats for you.
- ATO has only issued 150 penalty notices by EOFY on June 30 2016
- Penalties totaled $695,980, or an average of $4,640 each :rolleyes:
- Mr Abbott introduced "higher" penalties after 2014 inquiry revealed no :lol: prosecutions for breaching rules since 2006
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Nothing to see here people, keep moving along.
 
whinfell said:
Paging House to the white courtesy phone! (House is Steve Keen's #1 fan :lol: )
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I hope House is ok. It is very unlike him to leave a thread like this go unchecked. If he is absent much longer we might need to fill out a missing persons report. :lol:
 
leo25 said:
To be fair to Keen, 1. who would have thought interest rates would go to record lows and stay that way and 2. who would have thought our government would fully deregulate foreign ownership of housing allowing the Chinese market to buy up anything they want.

And for any fool that believed the governments big crack down talk here are some stats for you.
- ATO has only issued 150 penalty notices by EOFY on June 30 2016
- Penalties totaled $695,980, or an average of $4,640 each :rolleyes:
- Mr Abbott introduced "higher" penalties after 2014 inquiry revealed no :lol: prosecutions for breaching rules since 2006
Click to expand...

Nothing to see here people, keep moving along.
Click to expand...

I disagree. Surely as a "Guru" he should have seen these things coming or at least taken into account their possible effect. Otherwise every situation would be a "Oh didn't think of that". The ability to plan for the unforeseen and unexpected is what differentiates the "Guru" from the ordinary guy in the street. The academic "Guru" thinks it will follow his script. The other knows it won't and sets in place contingency plans.

Which leads to the very important difference between an academic "Guru" and a person with skin in the game. The "Guru" says "oops - well how could you expect me to anticipate that?". The guy with skin in the game says "that's ok - this is one of the unforseen things I anticipated. I'll now do XXXX".

Whenever you have money on the line - you always have a plan for when things go pear shaped because you know that you can't know exactly what will happen. You allow for "fat" in the deal or "wriggle room" and always have several exit strategies.

Listen and learn from those who are doing what you want to do. If you want to be a good academic then listen to Steve Keen. If you want to be a successful astronaut then find one and learn from them. If you want to learn how to drive a car then find a good driver to show you how. If you want to invest successfully then find a successful investor.

malachii.
 
BuggedOut said:
whinfell said:
Paging House to the white courtesy phone! (House is Steve Keen's #1 fan :lol: )
Click to expand...

I hope House is ok. It is very unlike him to leave a thread like this go unchecked. If he is absent much longer we might need to fill out a missing persons report. :lol:
Click to expand...

Malachii said it all ;)
 
Keen has been wrong like all the rest. Though I admire anyone who truly believes in their sound logic and reasoning enough to make public predictions with presumably not much to gain from doing so. I just wouldn't base my investment decisions on any single person's advice.

As for successful traders...the only successful traders that I'd listen to are those that are investing their time and energy into their work. By work, I mean real work and real passion, not 'playing the markets'. Most successful traders of this 'playing the markets' type have no morals and no real life skills.
 
Keen's logic will be correct if the world is still under Bretton Wood system. However, our economy no longer grow the way it used to grow. Instead of growing by production, saving and investing, it grows by the expansion of credit. Sadly, by looking at the several cuts in interest rate, it appears RBA is going down this road in the past 8 years...

As long as credit continue to grow, Australia housing market will be either flat or continue to rise. (i.e. regardless of affordability and debt-to-income ratio).

That is why his argument about Australian housing bubble is incorrect.
 
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