Couple years ago the sensitive long term investment price was declared as sub $50.
Yet they all hammered their sell long term investment buttons.
Since every price dollar relates to a same amount ounces, looking at lowest / highest prices has a statistical tendency to fail. A few manage, a lot in any degree including the worst.
Over 1-2 weeks another typical 3 month cyclus will end, so it looks like the moment to add another chunk is very near for some (this only takes this short term into account, in the end it will depend on all of us and the new together)
The size of the futures hedge was 23559 on 16/09 with end of day price $18.69
The price is now 1 dollar lower so it's atm likely well sub 20000 again.
Then the latest cycles IShares Silver Trust, the by far biggest physically backed non-ETF, evolution ounces:
2014/07/22 321,162,103.50 $20.86
2014/07/25 321,977,950.50 $20.745
2014/08/04 321,837,037.80 $20.14
2014/08/06 322,604,748.20 $20.03
2014/08/12 324,763,902.20 $19.98
2014/08/15 325,771,410.80 $19.55
2014/08/22 330,281,005.00 $19.395
2014/08/29 331,528,167.80 $19.46
2014/09/03 333,207,530.80 $19.21
2014/09/10 334,646,300.80 $18.94
2014/09/15 339,489,962.40 $18.70
2014/09/17 340,449,034.40 $18.51
The fluctuation is since years only in the order of a few dozens Moz, so peanuts compared to the impact that the futures hedge has on the price (100's Moz) but apparently they loaded up (thus relative) heavily since the price hung around $19.
During last uptrend, about 70 Moz was sold, which now gets finally reflected in the spot price, with the hedge positions gradually been dropped. Todays price was to expect, and a $17 chance may be around the corner. May Be.
In my region, it all doesn't differ as much as the USD price suggests, simply because alot of what changed sits on the USD/Euro side. The Euro was considered becoming too strong, and the central banks intervened in their typical keep the currency snakes-in-their-tunnels fashion. At the moment, a kilo coin costs exactly what it costed back then (both lowest I've seen so far). Earlier this year I bought a few at the same price I can buy them today, despite the USD spot being over a dollar lower.
It just shows: take some freely published market data into account and you can get quite a clue, on both short and long term.
About general inflation, central planners declared almost deflation, but two regular (cheapest versions) things on my shopping cart got alot more expensive since august, inflicting me a daily extra cost of 2.5 euro.
