Reggie Middleton warning of imminent European bank failures.

[tolly_67]

His blog caught my eye years ago. His bank analysis is second to none. He warned of Bear Stearns, Lehman and gang well before each one crumbled. I read his analysis and months later, bingo, it happened like it said it would. While he was declaring dead and buried, newspaper analysts were advising to buy the stock as they saw good improvements in price possible.
He is being a bit cagey with his info now. It is a paid analysis. It used to be free. I believe the big one he is alluding to could be Deutsche Bank. Wouldn't that make the Euro fall...yeeeeee haaaaa.

 

[SpacePete]

I believe the big one he is alluding to could be Deutsche Bank. Wouldn't that make the Euro fall...yeeeeee haaaaa.

Deutsche Bank is a prime candidate, and the clue is in their desperate trillion euro selloff of credit default swaps:

Deutsche Bank AG, the lender exiting some trading operations, is in talks with JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. to sell the last batches of about 1 trillion euros ($1.1 trillion) in complex financial instruments, people with knowledge of the matter said.

Deutsche Bank, based in Frankfurt, has sold about two-thirds of the portfolio of uncleared, mostly single-name credit default swaps since last year and wants to sell the rest within the next few months, according to the people, who asked not to be identified as the talks are private. The three U.S. banks have already purchased some of the instruments, the people said.

Deutsche Bank is withdrawing from countries, dumping unprofitable clients and pulling out of businesses as co-Chief Executive Officer John Cryan, 55, tries to boost profit and meet tougher capital rules after starting in July. He inherited a plan by his predecessor, Anshu Jain, to stop trading most credit default swaps tied to individual companies after new banking regulations made them costlier.


Shedding Risk

Before Deutsche Bank began the sales, the swaps had a leverage exposure -- a metric that regulators use to measure a bank's capital requirement -- of about 100 billion euros under the latest rules, one of the people said. The lender said in April that it would shrink the leverage exposure of its investment banking and trading unit by as much as 150 billion euros through 2018.

Credit-default swaps are insurance contracts that pay out if a borrower defaults on a debt. Investors use them to speculate on the borrower's ability to repay debt or to guard against losses on the debt. The instruments helped to fuel the 2008 credit crunch and regulators have been trying to make them safer and less opaque.

...The swaps are mostly "single-name," meaning that they're tied to individual companies' creditworthiness, as opposed to an index of securities, one of the people said. Deutsche Bank stopped trading these instruments in late 2014, the lender said then. The total size of the credit derivatives market has dropped by almost two-thirds from $33 trillion in 2008, according to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...an-said-to-discuss-buying-deutsche-bank-swaps

 

[BuggedOut]

Deutsche Bank has been flagged as a potentially catastrophic failure for months now.

It is my opinion they will be bailed out. Maybe it will be a subtle bail out and/or done behind closed doors so nobody even sees it, but Europe is showing policy that suggests a bail out is inevitable. The main opposition to the Italian bank bail outs seems to be the German people....but do you think they will oppose the bail out of one of their own?

 

[bellinvest]

The Deutsche Bank is a huge bank in Europe and houses some incredible amount of loans etc. to an extent.... it's simply to big for Germany to bail out individually. Throw in the EU/IMF and they might be covered... its weird because the EU keep bringing in banking new regulation, which impacts the EU banks negatively, which has an end result that the EU wont like... crazy cycle really.

But! the real problem is if the Deutsche Bank goes... many of the EU banks go with it! creating a snow-ball effect very quickly... people would transfer their money to a US bank or the like within hours as a serious fear haze set it. So the situation would escalate very quickly... to fast for the EU/IMF to act meaningfully i think.

Side note: When the 10yr Spainish/Italian bond is trading at a tiny 1.5% (risk suppose to equal reward)... you know there is a serious crisis looming.

B

 

[Miloman]

Reggie Middleton will be added to the list of pumpers.

 

[JulieW]

Reggie Middleton sounds like a character on Eastenders.

 

[tolly_67]

Reggie Middleton will be added to the list of pumpers.

Just because someone asks for money for time and effort doesn't make them a 'pumper'. If you had followed his advice 9 years ago you would have made serious money. His reports which predate the events are still available to be read. Proof is in the pudding.