Lunar Dragons - whats the go ?

S

silverman47

Active Member
Can somebody tell me what is going on with these lunar dragons, and why people are paying premiums for them?

nobodies paying huge premiums for koalas, or kookaburras, i don't see that the lunar dragons are really any different.

They are limited edition sure, but end of the day its just a silver coin.
 
There are lots of different views regarding the profitability of Australian Lunar Dragons.

From Badon at LBC, an American perspective on them, you can read about it here: http://www.livebusinesschat.com/smf/index.php?topic=4814.0

"Australian lunars were a fantastic investment, and they did better than any other coins for several years. At one point a complete set of gold lunars was selling for somewhere in the $100,000 range! Remember, those coins were originally sold when $500 per ounce gold was an impressive historic achievement, so with only 12 coins in the set, we're talking about some pretty ridiculous profits those investors were making...until prices dropped."
 
dindu5585 said:
you are right.

Its just a silver coin but Monkey see; Monkey do so ive decided to hop on the banwagen as well :D
Click to expand...


hahah, yeah i must admit i am looking at one to add to my stack ! theres one with a red dragon on it i like.
 
yennus said:
There are lots of different views regarding the profitability of Australian Lunar Dragons.

From Badon at LBC, an American perspective on them, you can read about it here: http://www.livebusinesschat.com/smf/index.php?topic=4814.0

"Australian lunars were a fantastic investment, and they did better than any other coins for several years. At one point a complete set of gold lunars was selling for somewhere in the $100,000 range! Remember, those coins were originally sold when $500 per ounce gold was an impressive historic achievement, so with only 12 coins in the set, we're talking about some pretty ridiculous profits those investors were making...until prices dropped."
Click to expand...


so the 1/2 ounce gold lunar rabbit that i have arriving tomorrow might be a good investment then ? (rubbing hands together) i just thought it was another gold coin !
 
Very limited 300000 mintage and annual design change. The kooks are 500000 and the koalas are unlimited mintage. At spot plus a small premium, silver lunars are an outstanding investment.

The main reason people are paying high premiums for the 2012 dragon is because the 2000 dragon has a high premium. Flippers should do well, but investors may end up being disappointed. In 2006 you could buy those 2000 dragons for close to spot. At that time, I bought a 2oz dragon for spot or spot + $1oz premium.

I don't plan on buying the 1oz 2012 silver dragons unless the premium drops significantly. It is possible that if silver runs to $50oz or higher, the price on the 2012 dragons will be stable and they will lose a significant part of their premium.
 
I think dccpa raises some good points...

Investors and flippers may have different results; and with a run up in silver spot, part of the premium may be lost.
 
Have a look at Gold Pelican's presentation. In particular the dragons. We Asians are superstitious lot and the dragon is particularly auspicious. Add to that the burgeoning public interest in silver just over this year alone. We all want them whether for luck, intrinsic silver value, long term numismatic value or the quick buck.
Lastly, numismatics like these provide a little insurance against total loss if the bottom drops out of the market AND you have to sell. Unlikely, of course but everyone's situation is complex .
 
Though a vast majority of the Chinese population would agree that dragons are viewed as an "auspicious" symbol, a small but growing minority do not find the symbol of the dragon appealing.

Historically speaking the image of the dragon was used by the first Emperor (Qin Shi Huang - also known as the "Mad King") to unite (and decimate) the independent Chinese states that existed around 200BC. Prior to this time, the primary religion (and unifying religion) of many independent Chinese states was based on a monotheistic God "Shang Di" (God of Heaven and Earth - a tender, compassionate and forgiving God).

Beginning with the First Emperor and many subsequent emperors, many forsook the worship of Shang Di and committed themselves to following the dragon as a symbol of self-seeking lust for raw power, and attempted to wipe out the traditional beliefs (in a singular all powerful deity of Heaven and Earth) as well as those who believed and practiced it.

Some Chinese historians put forward the case that the symbol of the dragon is why modern day Chinese tend to submit to authoritarian rule, preferring strong rule over democracy.

When the dragon was first introduced, any subject of the Emperor caught using the dragon symbol was usually put to death. The symbol of the dragon equated to imperial rule (not a government for the people by the people).
 
I'm seeing the 10oz dragons as a great deal currently. I just purchased ten of them today, for only $4 above spot per oz, which is pretty standard for nice minted coins. Not numismatic at all, but I tell ya, the private sales for these things commands a heck of a lot larger price. Look on ebay and see what people are willing to pay for the same exact coin.

Then imagine next year when so many Chinese are going to be wanting these and when the spot price of silver is probably a great deal higher than it is today. I think its a fairly sound investment and if you get the 10oz ones you'll be sure to not lose out paying for premiums. Personally, I wouldn't pay the high premiums for the 1oz coins even if they are rare. I'm just not into numismatic investing.
 
dccpa said:
Flippers should do well, but investors may end up being disappointed.
Click to expand...

You are totally right dccp, flippers ARE doing well. To me, this means more Ag and some Au is coming. And thanks yennus that was very insightful that was.
 
This anomaly isn't only limited to Australian Lunar coins. The current ASE proof set being released will probably benefit flippers much quicker than investors (I am attempting to get a few of these ASE proof sets too, both for flipping and keeping).

Numismatic Panda coins have historically benefited both flippers and long term investors. This is an advantage of getting into a bull market relatively early (this effect is not isolated to the Panda market, but this is obviously one area I'm more familiar with).

E.g. If you got into 2009 Pandas two years ago in 2009, you would have more than tripled your net silver value (good for flipping). For the investor, going into the future another 5years, it is likely that you will increase your gains even more so (but no one can say for sure).

E.g. If you got into 2000 Mirrored Pandas in 2007, you could have increased your net silver value by over 7 times (good for flipping). For the investor, going into the future another 5years, it is likely that you will increase your gains even more so (but no one can say for sure).

In both instances (old numismatic Pandas, and newer bullion Pandas) have benefited flippers and investors.

I recommend reading Badon's commentary if you haven't already: http://www.livebusinesschat.com/smf/index.php?topic=4814.0

He makes some good observations based on historical performance, as well as some future predictions based on current trends.

Badon writes:
"If you don't have lunars yet, it's time to start shopping. Just make sure you buy the rare, older Chinese lunars, not the Australian ones. Dragons are going to be so hot, it might get tempting to taste the grass on the other side of the fence, but once the dragon mania dies down in 2013, nobody will care as much about the Australian lunars, but the rare Chinese lunars will just keep getting more expensive. That's what you want as an investor."

I read what Badon is saying as essentially, flippers will do well on the Australian Lunars, but investors may not do as well (historical reference given previously).

At the end of the day, no one knows for sure. Do your homework, and hope for the best.
 
What about the 2011 Panda Yennus, seems even a fire sale cant move it?
 
dude a dragon would fkn mince a koala...

and devour a kook.

think about it.... DRAGON...

sheesh.... nothing beats it
 
I don't know what the go is.

But they sold out from the mint on the first day, they're highly sought after by individuals, they command a decent premium and they're my favourite kind of metal.

And this is why I have stashed a roll away for the future :)
 
Agauholic said:
dude a dragon would fkn mince a koala...

and devour a kook.

think about it.... DRAGON...

sheesh.... nothing beats it
Click to expand...


Maybe they should make a coin featuring Michael the archangel then! ^_^
 
In response to first post.

Pack mentality, everyone wants what everyone wants.

Same rules apply for dragons, pandas, koalas, kooks, gold, silver, RE etc etc.

Everyone happened to want the dragon really bad in the beginning, driving prices to the high heavens.

The best dragons to acquire are the 1/2 oz, 2 oz, 5 oz, 10 oz and kg. Because they have normal premiums and eventually after their mintage ended they will have numistmatic appreciation. 1 oz will always be expensive. Because dragon pricing is more often than not above other lunar animals, if tiger goes for 65 long term then dragon is 70-75 long term.

2011 pandas are the cheapest pandas you can get your hands on at this time. Next one maybe 2012 .... but if they double their mintage ...... I am concerned.

Which silver is best? none, all the same, all has its own market. Even the plain ol ASE and philharmonics have their own market.

Do research and enter knowing every investment comes with risk. Calculate that risk and enter if you can bear the risk.
 
jpanggy said:
In response to first post.

Pack mentality, everyone wants what everyone wants.

Same rules apply for dragons, pandas, koalas, kooks, gold, silver, RE etc etc.

Everyone happened to want the dragon really bad in the beginning, driving prices to the high heavens.

The best dragons to acquire are the 1/2 oz, 2 oz, 5 oz, 10 oz and kg. Because they have normal premiums and eventually after their mintage ended they will have numistmatic appreciation. 1 oz will always be expensive. Because dragon pricing is more often than not above other lunar animals, if tiger goes for 65 long term then dragon is 70-75 long term.

2011 pandas are the cheapest pandas you can get your hands on at this time. Next one maybe 2012 .... but if they double their mintage ...... I am concerned.

Which silver is best? none, all the same, all has its own market. Even the plain ol ASE and philharmonics have their own market.

Do research and enter knowing every investment comes with risk. Calculate that risk and enter if you can bear the risk.
Click to expand...
anyone think the 2011 will reach the mintage limit?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top