if you were reconfiguring 300 oz generic stack to numismatics ...

[silvstack]

i don't have much money to buy anything new, and would be content to sit on a stack, except that i recently decided i don't want to keep generic silver, i'd rather numismatics. (if i had purchased numismatics instead of what i did when i did i'd be so ahead of the game but i was paranoid that a SHTF scenario was around the corner!) i figure that trading would be perfect (i know there's buying and selling commissions but i'm ok with that).

i'm thinking along the lines of 2012 issues of pandas and actually have been awaiting their release while wondering about britannias and kooks and koalas but even things older - takus are awesome too! half ounce koalas seem interesting. i don't think there's any mistaking one way or the other, but i'm interested in whatever rationale would be behind selection, i.e., mintage, slabbed v. OMP, denominations, MS/Proof.

so, if you were trading a stack, what would you trade for?

 

[dccpa]

Some of my advice would be different for citizens of other countries, but you are in the US. So here is my pecking order.

My first choice would be lunars, but the 2012 dragons are too expensive. My 3rd choice would be kooks, but I think the premium on the 2012 coins may already be too high for you.

My second choice is the Canadian Wildlife Series coins. However, unless you are getting the entire set of six coins, I would skip the current Cougar coin and either get the Grizzly coin or the 4th coin that will be released in 2-3 months. Since you are swapping metal vs. buying to increase ounces, you you are not really affected by the price of silver and have the luxury of being able to wait for your choice of coin to be released.

Large minting of new Pandas and the rampant counterfeiting are deterrents for me. If you buy the Pandas, use reputable US dealers and avoid Ebay.

For a shtf scenario, I would also keep some ASEs. The ASEs aren't numismatic, but they are more recognizable to US citizens and they would be much easier to use for barter, etc. than foreign coins.

Keep in mind, an increase of counterfeiting by the Chinese in Australian or Canadian coins would affect my choices.

 

[Dabloodymess]

Well I guess you aren't too late to get in in series 2 lunars.... grab a 20 roll of each 1oz that has been released so far and make sure you have spare $$$ for at least a 20 roll at each new release.

By the end of the series you will then have 20x12 coin lunar sets which should have a decent premium attached.

 

[Anthony]

Just remember with the 2012 Pandas that it will be the highest mintage limit they have ever seen.

While it would be nice to have a few of them they don't have the same restricted supply drivers as older years, so are unlikely to see the same sort of gains.

I think the Lunars are a pretty safe bet each year, buy some mice at around $40-45 if you want something right now and save your $$$ for the September release of the snake and any pre-orders which are taken (if there are any this year).

 

[fishball]

You've still got almost a whole year to buy 2012 Pandas, if I were you I'd go for other stuff instead (numismatic-wise).

 

[RetardedMonkey]

If I were you, I'd keep the generic silver.

 

[smokey]

one of my new years resolutions was to stop buying silver coins [numis]
keep the generics

 

[RetardedMonkey]

one of my new years resolutions was to stop buying silver coins [numis]
keep the generics

Same with me mate.

I am wondering how I got these random numis in the first place - like seriously, what prompted me to buy the whole set of kooks and s1 lunars!?

 

[metalzzz]

In a shtf senario I would be wanting max ounces. Pretty silver wouldn't be a priority for me.

 

[heike1a2b3c]

What type of things are you classifying 'generic stack'?

I even thought the 1oz kookaburra was generic enough, because it can be bought at a reasonable price at high volumes. I was not trying to even get into any numis, but seems that by buying coins at good prices, I still managed to accumulate some stuff.

I do have some basic 10oz Perth Mint bars, but have to agree they are ugly after I received my first 10oz kookaburra. I had to get one since everyone else was saying the 10oz coins are so much nicer, AND THEY ARE. You can actually see all the design features on this size coin. So, I will keep getting stuff that is close to bullion price.

So, I would just assess what really you do have. If it is ASE or Canadian 1oz coins, I would definitely keep these. If it is non-government coins etc, then may be swap some of those. Personally, I would not pay the premiums of the panda or lunar series and have not done so. But I have not even bought any of these, even when I could. The rabbits seem to be very unloved and can be found at lower premiums than other coins. That is too much of a numi game for me to participate in. ...

 

[silvstack]

i have some of those native american/buffalo, which are not as ugly and tacky as the standing liberty rounds - i think they are remarkably tacky looking. i got rid of some more generic rounds and kept a few that i find attractive. but my situation is multi-faceted ...

1 - i do believe that numismatics is a bit of "misdirection" - like you can have a kilo of silver, but look at this astonishingly beautiful dime you can have instead. so there's certainly valid reasons to avoid numismatics, depending on how immanent a SHTF scenario is. if a SHTF scenario is not immanent then perhaps diversifying is not a bad idea.

2 - i do not think a SHTF scenario is immanent because i think the powers that control things are vast and can draw this out for a decade, and besides, scenarios are changing all the time.

3 - i am a bit over-invested but don't feel like selling at $30 and i don't think silver will move much higher for a while. but i purchased some pandas just when silver plumetted, but the panda price floated at around where i purchased them. that's astonishing. so it's a bit of gambling. but i have to admit that those standing liberty rounds are really really ugly, not at all like pandas - not even in the dark!

i'm thinking of transferring that to a sheet or two of pandas, and the rest for something fiji low mintage, and some non-ounce (half ounce and multiple ounce) perth coins, perhaps koalas or 10 ounce kookabooras. those odd denominations sheerly because of low mintages. i am finding that i am gravitating towards wanting pretty silver ... i do have to remind myself of that point i numbered 1., above.

PS - U.S. stackers who might want to trade for silver rounds (i have some really beautiful standing liberties!) can PM me.

it really helps to hear people opining!

the more i read from you all, the more awesome this forum seems, thanks!

 

[yennus]

i don't have much money to buy anything new, and would be content to sit on a stack, except that i recently decided i don't want to keep generic silver, i'd rather numismatics. (if i had purchased numismatics instead of what i did when i did i'd be so ahead of the game but i was paranoid that a SHTF scenario was around the corner!) i figure that trading would be perfect (i know there's buying and selling commissions but i'm ok with that).

i'm thinking along the lines of 2012 issues of pandas and actually have been awaiting their release while wondering about britannias and kooks and koalas but even things older - takus are awesome too! half ounce koalas seem interesting. i don't think there's any mistaking one way or the other, but i'm interested in whatever rationale would be behind selection, i.e., mintage, slabbed v. OMP, denominations, MS/Proof.

so, if you were trading a stack, what would you trade for?

Hi silvstack! Congratulations on desiring to get into the game of numismatics! I'm not a numi expert on all coins, but I am an incredibly enthusiastic Panda fan.
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_china-silver-panda-coin-pic.jpg]

[/imgz]

When I think about stacking Pandas, I consider the following statement:
a) If I keep cash, I'm losing purchasing power (due to inflation, etc, etc). [E.g. $100 ten years ago had more purchasing power than it does today]
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_0436s.jpeg]

[/imgz]
b) If I keep generic bullion (e.g. ASEs, Maples, Bullion bars, etc) I'm holding purchasing power (a bullion bar 10years ago, is equal to a bullion bar today) [E.g. A 1KG bullion bar purchased 10years ago, if sold today only buys me a 1KG bullion bar today]
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_5kgsbas.jpg]

[/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_silverpamp_1kg.jpg]

[/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_random2.jpg]

[/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_jm100ozs.jpg]

[/imgz]
c) If I keep Pandas, I'm gaining purchasing power (a Panda ten years ago is worth more than a Panda today) [E.g. A Panda purchased 10years ago if sold today, should get me at least 3x 2012 Pandas, and if it is good condition and graded, even more than 10x 2012 Pandas]
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_emhww.jpeg]

[/imgz]

If I were just starting out, I would go for the 2012 Pandas - despite their high mintages.
a) Their release prices are likely to be only 10% above ASE prices (or approx 20% above spot... dependent on source and volume, etc).
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_mbox_-_copy.jpeg]

[/imgz]
b) Their price is linked to spot (e.g. if spot goes up, then their price goes up - yet hedged to the Yuan and collector demand)
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_chinadaily.jpg]

[/imgz]
c) Their price is linked to the Yuan (e.g. if the Yuan goes up, then their price goes up - yet hedged to spot and collector demand)
d) Their price is linked to the demand (e.g. if more than 12million units are purchased, then their price goes up - yet hedged to spot and Yuan)
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_jimrogersbuyspandas.jpg]

[/imgz]
e) After a couple of years, their price decouples from spot prices, and starts moving independently above spot.
f) The 2012 Pandas have all the advantages that generic bullion has, and more.
g) Demand for Pandas is growing worldwide, and domestic demand for them in China is still in its infancy, yet growing more and more each day. Chinese now fly to the USA to pickup Pandas to sell back in China.

Once you have played with the low risk Pandas, or if you're brave, I would then suggest getting involved with some of the older bears. Older OMP (original mint packaging) Pandas have a few big benefits:
a) Low mintages.
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_big13.jpg]

[/imgz]
b) Historically high demand.
c) Historically good rates of growth.
d) High returns when slabbed. If you do your homework, there are some OMP Pandas, that when slabbed, almost automatically convey reasonable profits in a short amount of time.
E.g. 1995 (Common Large Date Large Twig) 1oz Silver Pandas.
Suppose you could get 10x 1995 Common Pandas (OMP) for $105each (e.g. Group Buy Price) [Total $1050]... hopefully you would get something like this:
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3291.jpeg]

[/imgz]

[if you get a MS70 you have permission to print money... a 1990 MS70 1oz Silver Panda went for $5200USD last year... but getting a MS70 is not easy so i'll leave it out of the equation for the moment]

7x MS69 $210 (APMEX price $279.99)
2x MS68 $105
1x MS67 $55
Total: $1626

Gross Profit: $576 (55%)
Minus expenses: (grading fee + postage) $265 + $100 + (1-2months at NGC)
Net Profit: $211 (20%)

b) if spot races up, so does the price of these Pandas.
c) if spot races down, these Pandas usually maintain their higher prices.
d) if you don't get the price you want, just wait... as the number of Panda collectors worldwide increases, time is on your side in regards to achieving your desired price.
e) the profitability of Pandas allows you to be in a better position if you have to get prepared for a SHTF scenario. When I first started with generic bullion, my stack size remained the same (as I didn't have much cash to keep pumping into my stack)... but since switching to Pandas, I've been blessed in watching the size of my stack grow (because the value of the Pandas grew - allowing me to get both Pandas and generic ounces).

Peter Anthony recently updated his Panda Pricepedia chart, which doesn't reflect the entire coin market, but it has been very similar to my experiences (the red line).

Source: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-20813-pricepedia-2000-index-january-2012-update.html
"The China Pricepedia 2000 Index gets revised twice a year. It is made up of 20 Panda coins with populations under 2,000. The Pricepedia Index is a measure of how an investment strategy concentrated in the most numismatic of Pandas is performing relative to a strategy based on the gold and silver value of the coins. It is NOT meant to be a general Panda market Index, and doesn't necessarily reflect the price movements of the rest of the market. " (Peter Anthony)

For me, Pandas are a wonderful hobby that I have enjoyed studying and learning. I derive a lot of satisfaction from collecting them; a lot more than when I was only going for gross amounts of silver and gold (though I still do a bit of this on the side). [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_predecimals.jpg]

[/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3204.jpeg]

[/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_botswana2s.jpg]

[/imgz]

After doing my calculations I am many times better off (in both cash and ounces) collecting Pandas, than had I been purely counting/stacking the number of ounces. In this environment, I've found that quality (Pandas) trumps quantity (generic ounces).

Hopefully with Pandas, you will be plenty profitable within a short period of time. I find it easier to win in this 'bear' market (pun intended).

Here's a beginners guide to Pandas if you're still interested: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-18356-pr-beginners-guide-to-pandas.html

Thanks!

 

[Macros_The_Black]

Wow yennus, that was a super-informative post, thanks for taking the time you did to put all that together ... I'm nearly convinced I should set up a parallel strategy to invest in pandas! (More cash required ... note to self to get creative to make more fiat asap!)

Thanks again, very educational.

 

[yennus]

Thanks Robert.S, it's my pleasure...

Pandas are lotsa fun (and profitable)

 

[silvstack]

thanks yennus - we corresponded in pandas too - i'm a bit hesitant about the increase to ... what is it, 8 million? i do respect pandas quite a bit - i saw what happened immediately after i purchased some - silver plummeted, pandas floated on the ether.

i did subscribe to the pricepedia - it'll take some time to learn to read his charts.

but i have a couple questions - where do you get these pandas? i'm asking because my source for most everything has been apmex, but you just indicated one instance where apmex was seventy dollars higher than ____ ? (ever since that thread where someone convincingly exposed that apmex allegedly submits coins for grading and then breaks 69s out of slabs and sells them as unsealed i've lost quite a bit of regard for them). that said, my pandas came from apmex. besides that, with all this talk of counterfeits i guess the only ebay i can trust is pcgs cert.

also what about half ounce and larger multiple ounce coins?

 

[heike1a2b3c]

Thank you yennus, but could your graph not also be read as pandas being in a bubble more so than silver and it could come crashing down even more than silver itself and as such is riskier to invest in for long term safety net investing?

 

[yennus]

thanks yennus - we corresponded in pandas too - i'm a bit hesitant about the increase to ... what is it, 8 million? i do respect pandas quite a bit - i saw what happened immediately after i purchased some - silver plummeted, pandas floated on the ether.

i did subscribe to the pricepedia - it'll take some time to learn to read his charts.

but i have a couple questions - where do you get these pandas? i'm asking because my source for most everything has been apmex, but you just indicated one instance where apmex was seventy dollars higher than ____ ? (ever since that thread where someone convincingly exposed that apmex allegedly submits coins for grading and then breaks 69s out of slabs and sells them as unsealed i've lost quite a bit of regard for them). that said, my pandas came from apmex. besides that, with all this talk of counterfeits i guess the only ebay i can trust is pcgs cert.

also what about half ounce and larger multiple ounce coins?

Hi Silvstack, thanks for your response... I'm about to run off on a Panda Hunt, so this will be the quick response, but hopefully I'll reply more fully later today.

Q> 8Million too many?
A> Not really. When you factor in domestic demand, and then add international demand, 8million Pandas is still relatively few. Consider that about 3million American Silver Eagles are minted each month... makes the 8million over a year relatively small. But obviously, the numismatic demand for these coins are likely to be considerably less than for the pre2009 Pandas.

Q> Pandas floated on the ether
A> Indeed they appear to do eheheh...

Q> Where to get Pandas
A> Surprisingly I think American and Europe are one of the cheaper places to source some Pandas. Demand for Pandas is hot in China, which is in part driving up prices worldwide.

Q> APMEX?
A> Yep, I like APMEX, their prices reflect a good balance between profit and liquidity. There are some people that focus on making big profits but low liquidity... then there are some people like me, who want to share Pandas, so the prices are lower, but the liquidity is higher.

Q> Counterfeits?
A> Yep, the counterfeiters found something of value to copy. Fortunately counterfeiters follow the market, not the market following the counterfeiters.

Q> Half ounce Pandas?
A> hehehe... shhhhh... don't talk about this... I want to go big in these.

Q> Larger ounce Pandas?
A> ehhehe... yep, I'm into these too.

Sorry about the short response... running out the door.

 

[yennus]

Thank you yennus, but could your graph not also be read as pandas being in a bubble more so than silver and it could come crashing down even more than silver itself and as such is riskier to invest in for long term safety net investing?

Could be in a bubble... silver and gold could be in a bubble too... but I doubt it.

a) Demand for Pandas is still growing domestically in China, and abroad.
b) Potential for domestic growth is still growing (E.g. the Chinese are getting richer).
c) Modern Chinese Coins are still in their numismatic infancy compared against their Western counterparts.
d) The Yuan is still undervalued (E.g. if the Yuan appreciates then so do Pandas).

a few other reasons... but I gotta run out the door.. Panda Hunting time

 

[yennus]

The Yuan is still undervalued (E.g. if the Yuan appreciates then so do Pandas).

Undervalued against what?

Monthly increase in the Chinese money supply peaked at a rate that was 30% YOY in 2010 and even at the current lows is around 13% (and has bounced around 15-20% for a majority of the last decade). This is much higher than the US... they are professional money printers!!

The Yuan is still undervalued against the USD.

"Rise of Chinese yuan not over, says analyst"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ri...r-says-analyst-2012-01-09?link=MW_latest_news

"With fewer funds leaving China, Lu foresees further yuan appreciation against the U.S. dollar this year, even as China's currency ended the last year near its all-time post-liberalization high against the greenback. "

"Yuan ends up; stability seen as China visit to US approaches"
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...sit-to-us-approaches/articleshow/11523899.cms

"Despite signs of foreign exchange outflows in recent data, market pressure still appears to be pushing the yuan to appreciate. "

China Yuan Up Late As GDP Reaffirms Currency's Rising Trend
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120117-702552.html

"Traders expect the PBOC to keep the yuan steady in a 6.3000-6.3200 range for the week as Beijing steps back to assess when to engineer further yuan appreciation. The Chinese currency is widely expected to rise 2%-3% this year."

..."The Chinese unit has risen 8.1% against the dollar since June 2010, when China ended its currency's peg to the dollar."

 

[yennus]

There are many reasons why I believe the Yuan to be undervalued against the USD. Primarily I see the capacity for economic growth in China (in the short, medium and long term) to be above that of the US. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

If you think the Yuan is overvalued against the USD, that's fine.