If There Is One Thing I've Learnt From Investing in Silver.........

[Ernster]

No matter how smart the individual people are in the group......when a group comes together most will act like sheep. I use to think we were all so much smarter than the masses (and we are!) :lol: but also taking the opposite approach within the group I believe usually yields best results.

Groups no matter what type (especially those that are money/investment related) will usually think the same and regurgitate information they hear from others like it's fact. We have seen that those silver investors who did the opposite to the Silver herd, have made the most profit, even though they got scolded at the time for taking a different approach.

So there it is.

I am guilty as charged as well, just something to take in and think about.

 

[DanielM]

What do you think is going to happen with 7+billion people on this planet? Everyone think differently? It's a human trait, some people are leaders, most people are followers. This happens in most situations/markets

 

[Jislizard]

The one thing I have learnt from investing in silver is that even though we are all investing in the same product no two stackers are doing it the same same way for the same reasons.

SHTF, Zombie Apocalype, inflation hedge, flippers, long term, short term, paper traders, "don't hold it don't own its", silver is silver, lunarmanias, Carded painted gilded nonsense, bars, coins, Legal Tender only, allocated, unallocated, storing at home, bank, safety deposit, confiscation, hiding it, detecting it. etc.

So it is no wonder that half of the forum is about trading and the other half is about flame wars.

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

are you undogoing a Damascus Experience ? :lol:

 

[RetardedMonkey]

Groups no matter what type (especially those that are money/investment related) will usually think the same and regurgitate information they hear from others like it's fact.

Positive reinforcement on a declining investment.

Happens all the time.

 

[Clawhammer]

The one thing I have learnt from investing in silver is that even though we are all investing in the same product no two stackers are doing it the same same way for the same reasons.

SHTF, Zombie Apocalype, inflation hedge, flippers, long term, short term, paper traders, "don't hold it don't own its", silver is silver, lunarmanias, Carded painted gilded nonsense, bars, coins, Legal Tender only, allocated, unallocated, storing at home, bank, safety deposit, confiscation, hiding it, detecting it. etc.

Excellent example, because you missed what I consider to be the most important reason; Alien Invasion!

 

[Jislizard]

The one thing I have learnt from investing in silver is that even though we are all investing in the same product no two stackers are doing it the same same way for the same reasons.

SHTF, Zombie Apocalype, inflation hedge, flippers, long term, short term, paper traders, "don't hold it don't own its", silver is silver, lunarmanias, Carded painted gilded nonsense, bars, coins, Legal Tender only, allocated, unallocated, storing at home, bank, safety deposit, confiscation, hiding it, detecting it. etc.

Excellent example, because you missed what I consider to be the most important reason; Alien Invasion!

Well that is why I am stacking so I assumed no one else would be!

 

[wrcmad]

Groups no matter what type (especially those that are money/investment related) will usually think the same and regurgitate information they hear from others like it's fact.

Positive reinforcement on a declining investment.

Happens all the time.

+1.

It's easier to tell yourself that the rest of the world are idiots,
rather than to question yourself over an investment decision that may not have been a good one.
It's human psychology.

 

[Jislizard]

Groups no matter what type (especially those that are money/investment related) will usually think the same and regurgitate information they hear from others like it's fact.

Positive reinforcement on a declining investment.

Happens all the time.

+1.

It's easier to tell yourself that the rest of the world are idiots,
rather than to question yourself over an investment decision that may not have been a good one.
It's human psychology.

+1+1

At least my collection of 1980's promotional items from cereal packets has held its value, everyone said they would never be worth anything but I collected them anyway. Along with those, and my boxed Star Wars toys and my sealed Magic the Gathering Collection, I have made nothing but sound investment decisions.

The inability of the rest of the world to see what great investments these have been still puzzles me.

 

[Scyb]

At least my collection of 1980's promotional items from cereal packets has held its value, everyone said they would never be worth anything but I collected them anyway. Along with those, and my boxed Star Wars toys and my sealed Magic the Gathering Collection, I have made nothing but sound investment decisions.

The inability of the rest of the world to see what great investments these have been still puzzles me.

If you had a sealed factory booster box of alpha booster packs, you would be killing it

 

[trew]

It's easier to tell yourself that the rest of the world are idiots,
rather than to question yourself over an investment decision that may not have been a good one.
It's human psychology.

OK I'll bite this time wrcmad

When the rest of the world was buying silver at $45 were they making the smart decision ?
Now that the rest of the world is selling silver below $20 are they making the smart decision ?

 

[willrocks]

Right now the group-think mood is negative. Right?

By adding a '+1' or agreeing with the OP aren't you further buying into the group-think herd mentality? Only this time you're different because of the pro anti-group-think sentiment.

It never ends.

 

[wrcmad]

It's easier to tell yourself that the rest of the world are idiots,
rather than to question yourself over an investment decision that may not have been a good one.
It's human psychology.

OK I'll bite this time wrcmad

When the rest of the world was buying silver at $45 were they making the smart decision ?
Now that the rest of the world is selling silver below $20 are they making the smart decision ?

I would answer both questions with a possible yes - depending on one's reasoning at the time. Both the above scenarios could have resulted in a positive outcome.
However, my comment was not in regards to weather a particular purchase or a sale price constituted a smart decision, but in response to the idea groups usually thinking the same and regurgitating information they hear from others like it's fact.

IMHO, both the transaction scenarios you put forward above, with only the information at hand at the time and no means of hindsight, could have been justified as smart decisions depending on individual circumstances. In hindsight, most of the "smarts" of any decision depend on the outcome, and most of the outcome depends on the ability to manage that decision.

What isn't smart is the inability to recognise and admit a bad decision, and correct it before it burns your fingers. This doesn't prevent you having another crack at it at a later time when circumstances are more favourable.
This is where a lot of people get caught up in their own need to be proved right, and justify their bad decision as a good one by regurgitating information they hear from others like it's fact.

Was it smart to buy at $45, and then proceed to spew out every permabull clich one could think of in order to make one's self feel vindicated whilst ignoring the reality of the situation, all the way down to $18? No.
The reality of the situation was it was a wrong decision - ignorance of this reality made it a dumb decision.

 

[trew]

It really depends what you use as your measure of value and measure of whether you made a mistake

I would have said that buying at $45 was high risk because the price had run up very quickly well above the long term average
A chartist would have probably viewed it as low risk because the up trend was still intact

Now at $20 I would say the risk is much less as its much closer to the long term average and much nearer to production cost, so downside is limited
A chartist would probably view the current price as high risk because the down trend is still intact

Sometimes the market is irrational - sometimes the rest of the world are idiots
Not always, but sometimes

 

[Jislizard]

At least my collection of 1980's promotional items from cereal packets has held its value, everyone said they would never be worth anything but I collected them anyway. Along with those, and my boxed Star Wars toys and my sealed Magic the Gathering Collection, I have made nothing but sound investment decisions.

The inability of the rest of the world to see what great investments these have been still puzzles me.

If you had a sealed factory booster box of alpha booster packs, you would be killing it

Only about 20% of the early boxes were sealed apparently, or maybe it was 80%.

I sure would like one of those but if I am going to dream, a sealed box of Summer would be nice, only $8k per booster!

I have a sealed box of Revised, not quite the same league

 

[Kawa]

I'm buying cheap blocks of land between now and December.As cost of living goes up I see a move to select country towns with cheap rents and good services as being a very attractive alternative .

Ok you say..." what about employment".

I say for some people they will adopt the view" better to be on the dole out there than in town" where they can't even afford to run a car etc to get to interviews let alone rent.

 

[Jislizard]

I'm buying cheap blocks of land between now and December.As cost of living goes up I see a move to select country towns with cheap rents and good services as being a very attractive alternative .

Ok you say..." what about employment".

I say for some people they will adopt the view" better to be on the dole out there than in town" where they can't even afford to run a car etc to get to interviews let alone rent.

My mate is on 5 acres, whole family have been told to move out by Christmas as the council wants to build a secondary school where his house is. He doesn't know how much he will be offered but it put me right off land banking.

Russell Island has really cheap blocks but my wife wouldn't let me buy any.

 

[Kawa]

I'm buying cheap blocks of land between now and December.As cost of living goes up I see a move to select country towns with cheap rents and good services as being a very attractive alternative .

Ok you say..." what about employment".

I say for some people they will adopt the view" better to be on the dole out there than in town" where they can't even afford to run a car etc to get to interviews let alone rent.

My mate is on 5 acres, whole family have been told to move out by Christmas as the council wants to build a secondary school where his house is. He doesn't know how much he will be offered but it put me right off land banking.

Russell Island has really cheap blocks but my wife wouldn't let me buy any.

Very unsettling for your friend's family however hopefully they will do Ok financially as most resumptions do end in favour of the owner .

Russell Island has very poor services in terms of basics like Hospital etc.

I'm trying to find towns with 2-3K people and get a feel for the basic land prices and then try and find towns 10-15 min away that are 50% of that price.I'm trying to keep the sites within 3 hours of Brisbane in my case however this basic filter system may help in other States.

They are there. I'm talking blocks 20-30K to buy.

I have 2 that I'm going under contract soon.You will find that you can get extended settlements on these blocks as there is not a lot of buyer competition.This time line can suit SMSF with known income.

I suggest no borrowings on these investments.The play is to get basic housing on there within a 5 year time frame and rent them out.Not a sexy investment however I think 10-15 years will see it go well.

I plan on building solar houses off the grid with LPG for showers and cooking.

 

[Jislizard]

Sounds interesting, I looked into the various options with esuperfund, might have worked if I had a bit more put away (and held less in depreciating commodities, mentioning no names)

 

[Kawa]

Sounds interesting, I looked into the various options with esuperfund, might have worked if I had a bit more put away (and held less in depreciating commodities, mentioning no names)

Most here are WAY ahead of the pack as they are thinking about Super and Investments.

Cycles come and go.You just need to be chipping away with putting into Super and it will pay off.