Cognitive biases and the psychological problems of stackers

SpacePete

SpacePete

Well-Known Member
Silver Stacker
I started stacking because I thought our dollar was going to crash and I had misgivings about our economic future and the wisdom of holding cash. Maybe I was unduly impacted by confirmation bias and put more trust in stories that reinforced my belief.

Now that I have a reasonable stack I have found myself becoming more concerned about the spot price and sometimes catch myself looking for justifications for a rise in the spot price. Yet another bias introduced, one that is irrelevant to my original reason for stacking.

I have also noticed that older stackers are generally more pessimistic, something that I have also observed about myself, while youth are more optimistic about the future (with exceptions of course).

There is also the strong tendency to find someone to blame for everything. If the spot price is lower than you want, then it is "someone" suppressing the price with malicious intent rather than the overall behaviour of the market as people seek to maximise profit. Any questioning of this belief can invoke strong emotional responses from the true believers. People want an easy target, someone easily identifiable... its the "banksters" or the illuminati, and never the emergent behaviour from complex interactions within human society, our inherent drives and the economic system. It is never our own collective greed and self-interest, it is always someone else, as if we are helpless victims rather than actors within the system.

Maybe there's more but my cognitive biases have blinded me to them :)
 
Teach us the true reasons of the silver price movements, oh wise one!

I'm so nervous that I started to believe all the silver bears on this forum.
Thinking about selling all my stack under SPOT and joining RealEstate'R'US.com forum instead.
/sarcasm (in case it isn't obvious)
 
Well grasshopper, clear your mind of all that you thought you knew and embrace what you cannot believe.
Like the rising and setting of the sun, silver is in a cycle. You are looking for the cause but they are legion. If movement does not make sense then it is your sense that is wrong. It is a difficult thing to come to terms with. The cycle will turn again in its own time.
 
As with many silver investors/stackers you're letting emotions creep into what should be an entirely rational investment decision.
 
While I am new to stacking , my interest/involvement in the broader financial system is not.

As I have aged I have started to move towards the "collective greed" camp. While the system we have certaintly does allow certain entities to manipulate the market in the short term , in the long run ( I believe ) what we see is the sum of the collectives actions.

But hey , maybe I've been hoodwinked too :)
 
SilverPete said:
There is also the strong tendency to find someone to blame for everything. If the spot price is lower than you want, then it is "someone" suppressing the price with malicious intent rather than the overall behaviour of the market as people seek to maximise profit. Any questioning of this belief can invoke strong emotional responses from the true believers. People want an easy target, someone easily identifiable... its the "banksters" or the illuminati, and never the emergent behaviour from complex interactions within human society, our inherent drives and the economic system. It is never our own collective greed and self-interest, it is always someone else, as if we are helpless victims rather than actors within the system.
Click to expand...

Some large banks have already been publicly busted for manipulating the financial markets in such things as LIBOR & the price of gold, for recent examples, and merely got a small fine relative to their profits (cost of "doing business," if you will).

This is documented fact.

It's also just the tip of the iceberg.


What more do you need that if it can be traded, then it's manipulated for profits, strategy and even international economic war?

This has been going for quite some time now. And it happens every day, every week, every month..


I'm not sure why some out there still refuse to believe it.
 
SilverPete said:
There is also the strong tendency to find someone to blame for everything. If the spot price is lower than you want, then it is "someone" suppressing the price with malicious intent rather than the overall behaviour of the market as people seek to maximise profit. Any questioning of this belief can invoke strong emotional responses from the true believers. People want an easy target, someone easily identifiable... its the "banksters" or the illuminati, and never the emergent behaviour from complex interactions within human society, our inherent drives and the economic system. It is never our own collective greed and self-interest, it is always someone else, as if we are helpless victims rather than actors within the system.
Click to expand...
^This.... 100% :)
 
This is a great thread and the reason I won't purchase silver as an investment, but only as a hobby.

I enjoy silver too much and shouldn't mix the two. I am not sure what you mean by cognitive bias, but certainly confirmation bias. Second, I don't want to invest in something that people feel is so heavily manipulated.

With a rental property, income is made because someone needs a place to live. This is more difficult to manipulate.

Finally, the costs (over spot) to invest put you behind from the start. With stocks, many have a very small premium to purchase.
 
I started out wanting to stack for the apocalypse - but apparently that has been put on hold until further notice.
Then there was the zombie invasion - I see them on the streets with their iPhones every day - but you are not allowed to kill them (no fun in that). And still my silver has not appreciated dramatically.
Then I thought, wow, spot to da moon - but apparently Keating's J-curve and the recession we had to have is setting in into the spot price.
Then I started to get depressed and took a fond look at my silver - there's bars, and buffaloes, and kooks, and roos (including some tiny gold ones), and zombies, and horses and dragons, there's 5 oz beauties (OMG) and tiny little ones, and .........
mmmmmm .....shiney
shiney .....mmmmmmmm

What more is there to say?
Shit, it's been a long week!
 
Gatito Bandito said:
Some large banks have already been publicly busted for manipulating the financial markets in such things as LIBOR & the price of gold, for recent examples, and merely got a small fine relative to their profits (cost of "doing business," if you will).

This is documented fact.

It's also just the tip of the iceberg.


What more do you need that if it can be traded, then it's manipulated for profits, strategy and even international economic war?

This has been going for quite some time now. And it happens every day, every week, every month..


I'm not sure why some out there still refuse to believe it.
Click to expand...
Read my sig.... ;) (and I credit it to Tolly_67..... a beautifully crafted phrase)
 
wrcmad said:
Read my sig.... ;) (and I credit it to Tolly_67..... a beautifully crafted phrase)
Click to expand...

You don't seem to comprehend the vast extent of it: *Everything* is rigged.. from currencies, to interest rates, to commodities, to the stock/share market, et al.

The question is, then, why are you still playing any of these games, yourself?
 
Hey Pete,

hahah I love how you phrase "true believer" thus polarizing and categorizing those who dare look behind the curtain.

There are levels of awareness and those "believers" motivated by greed have little idea of how deep the nature of our reality is. You are checking the "spot price" and thus fall into a category of "fiat believer", as you and many others believed that system would collapse and therefore TPTB must exist but if there is no collapse then TPTB must not exist. And yes you are frustrated because of your "brainwashing" by these propaganda specialists. So you post this thread taking a stab at those who are firm in their knowledge of how the world operates.

Everything is controlled or designed in reality whether for benevolent reasons or malicious. To believe otherwise is truly foolish and denies reality itself. You chose to believe in silver along with many others who chose this path through greed or resistance or fear or whatever other reason. Your thinking is just a snapshot in time. What if collapse happened or deflation or stagflation or war?

My opinion is that totalitarianism is the goal, constant surveillance, obedience and more... I'm sure you can see what has been happening.

Anyway to me precious metals are insurance that I hope never to use. So I don't really care about the spot price. The consequences of a collapse is frightening even if you are totally against the evil in this world. I am doubtful of a collapse too.

But the question is are you willing to be micro-chipped?
 
Miloman said:
Hey Pete,

hahah I love how you phrase "true believer" thus polarizing and categorizing those who dare look behind the curtain.

There are levels of awareness and those "believers" motivated by greed have little idea of how deep the nature of our reality is. You are checking the "spot price" and thus fall into a category of "fiat believer", as you and many others believed that system would collapse and therefore TPTB must exist but if there is no collapse then TPTB must not exist. And yes you are frustrated because of your "brainwashing" by these propaganda specialists. So you post this thread taking a stab at those who are firm in their knowledge of how the world operates.

Everything is controlled or designed in reality whether for benevolent reasons or malicious. To believe otherwise is truly foolish and denies reality itself. You chose to believe in silver along with many others who chose this path through greed or resistance or fear or whatever other reason. Your thinking is just a snapshot in time. What if collapse happened or deflation or stagflation or war?

My opinion is that totalitarianism is the goal, constant surveillance, obedience and more... I'm sure you can see what has been happening.

Anyway to me precious metals are insurance that I hope never to use. So I don't really care about the spot price. The consequences of a collapse is frightening even if you are totally against the evil in this world. I am doubtful of a collapse too.

But the question is are you willing to be micro-chipped?
Click to expand...

Thanks :)

I use "true believers" for those who don't look deeper, for those who swallow the acceptable conspiracy theories churned out by the usual suspects without question. They are the useful idiots of the information age, more manipulated than gold or silver.

I'll explain further sometime how it is being done but you are spot on about the objectives and where we are headed. We agree on the goal, but have differing views on the metho

The US is already an inverse totalitarian state, but that is just the beginning, and we are heading fast down the same path.
 
SilverPete said:
Caput Lupinum said:
Miloman said:
But the question is are you willing to be micro-chipped?
Click to expand...

I'm getting mine just below my Hello Kitty tramp stamp
Click to expand...

I thought the chipping was to be administered rectally?
Click to expand...

Micro sd slots to be installed so they can get a hard copy of our data as well.

Thats what the voices are currently telling me. :P
 
But before you got your stack, and you were stacked with Fiat instead, how was it confirmation bais that got you looking into silver and precious metals, i think that was your intuition and critical thinking leading you into "safe" vessels as savings are useless in an inflationary low interest environment.. and knowing the fiat debt based monetary system is bound to collapse eventually.

Now you have a stack and a vested interest, sure it confirmation bias..

We need to tune out the noise and lose the short and medium term rationale~ or focus on the short term and flip your silver making short-term paper profits.. a long term rationale is not compatible with short term doubt and a need for constant confirmation (from people you dont know or trust!)
 
It's all about savings.

Saving your excess wealth so you don't spend it indiscriminately.
Saving outside of the banking system.
Saving for when the SHTF.
Saving in a material that is tactile and pleasing to the eye.

All this within an inner circle of companions, an extended city, state, country and international group.

And the best reason, as cited by Peter, is it's insurance that repays the premiums at at least spot.

Lastly, don't forget, we are stackers, not investors.
 
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