Aussie Dollar and Silver price

S

smeagol

New Member
as the Aussie dollar is dropping, it seems that its (kinda) making up for the drop in silver prices...

anyway, i've got a lil bit of cash and atm unsure when to buy more physical :/

even if the silver price drops from here, it appears that the AUD might actually drop too :(

so... how do you think the weaker AUD is going to affect silver prices?
 
IMO the AUD will hit the 80-90c USD range in the next 12 months. Even if silver stayed at current USD prices it would be around $26.XX AUD.
 
I buy every week regardless of exchange rates. Need a larger stack. I see the 1 oz not the $. I have my stack at 179 ounces, not a lot, but, in under four weeks not to bad. Bought twice so far from APMEX and some local guys. In my first order I had 2 numismatics, should have bought rounds. You never stop learning do you.
 
smeagol said:
MRP said:
I see the 1 oz not the $.
Click to expand...

lol so you don't care how much you buy your silver for?

i can sell you mine for $50/oz if you like...
Click to expand...

He was referring to the exchange rate not having any impact on his buying mentality - although it has an impact on how much he can spend - rather than the underlying price of silver.

The underlying price in USD is the major criteria in whether PM's are expensive or cheap*. Exchange rate differences merely enhance or limit buying opportunities. For example, 1 oz in NZD is $28, should Kiwis stop buying because it costs more in NZD than AUD or USD to buy? No of course not. It just means for our Kiwi friends their $ has less buying power, in the same way as Cayman Islander's buying power is stronger because 1oz of silver in KYD is about $18.

If silver reached $50/oz because the AUD plummeted to sub-USD0.50 then silver would still represent a buying opportunity. If silver reached $50/oz because the price madly rose over a few months (as it did in 2010/2011) and the AUD remained at parity or near with the USD then we start getting into dangerous waters again and it may be wise to be cautious or get out.

MRP said:
I buy every week regardless of exchange rates.
Click to expand...

*with acknowledgement to the idea that using fiat as a measure of value is somewhat contradictory.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
The underlying price in USD is the major criteria in whether PM's are expensive or cheap
Click to expand...

Only if your fiat is in usd.

In 2008 silver dropped from $20 to below $10 so was cheap
But at the same time the aud got hammered so the price in aud actually went up rather than down

Was it cheap ?
 
trew said:
mmm....shiney! said:
The underlying price in USD is the major criteria in whether PM's are expensive or cheap
Click to expand...

Only if your fiat is in usd.

In 2008 silver dropped from $20 to below $10 so was cheap
But at the same time the aud got hammered so the price in aud actually went up rather than down

Was it cheap ?
Click to expand...

In light of what I posted above, yes.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
smeagol said:
MRP said:
I see the 1 oz not the $.
Click to expand...

lol so you don't care how much you buy your silver for?

i can sell you mine for $50/oz if you like...
Click to expand...

He was referring to the exchange rate not having any impact on his buying mentality - although it has an impact on how much he can spend - rather than the underlying price of silver.

The underlying price in USD is the major criteria in whether PM's are expensive or cheap*. Exchange rate differences merely enhance or limit buying opportunities. For example, 1 oz in NZD is $28, should Kiwis stop buying because it costs more in NZD than AUD or USD to buy? No of course not. It just means for our Kiwi friends their $ has less buying power, in the same way as Cayman Islander's buying power is stronger because 1oz of silver in KYD is about $18.

If silver reached $50/oz because the AUD plummeted to sub-USD0.50 then silver would still represent a buying opportunity. If silver reached $50/oz because the price madly rose over a few months (as it did in 2010/2011) and the AUD remained at parity or near with the USD then we start getting into dangerous waters again and it may be wise to be cautious or get out.

MRP said:
I buy every week regardless of exchange rates.
Click to expand...

*with acknowledgement to the idea that using fiat as a measure of value is somewhat contradictory.
Click to expand...
If there's a crash,USD will rise as people safehaven in USD.
The AUD will in response fall.
In those circumstances U.S. citizens will lose in USD if they sell their gold then,unless gold rises proportionally.
And Aussies will gain in aud.
Bad for them, good for us.
So gold buying is a different proposition for them and us.
I'd think twice about buying if in the U.S. at the moment if i was looking for shortterm., but have much less doubt in Australia
So it's not the same whatever currency your buying in.
If you're selling in a particular currency, who cares what it does in another's.
If you end up with more dollar's selling gold than people who didn't buy, that's good.

Admittedly it's a hard topic.
 
Depends what is crashing

At some point there will be the mother of all crashes - us bond market meltdown
Usd will collapse as countries rush to offload bonds and get out of usd
I have no idea what would happen to the aud in this scenario though
If it does get taken down along with usd then PMs will offer protection
 
I agree.
Gold would most probably rise in both currencies then however, and you would end up with more currency when selling
Than those who didn't buy?
I think its probable.
 
Hmmm. Looks like it's Australia's turn to enter the currency war. As a matter of fact when a currency devaluates, the price of commodities rise in the currency terms. So, if the Australian dollar plummets, silver price rise is on the cards.
 
smeagol said:
if the USD rises, then AUD falls
if the USD rises then Gold/Silver also fall

is that right?
Click to expand...
Depends if gold also rises against USD.
Gold can rise in usd because everyone wants it,
or because less people want USD.

The rise and fall of gold in AUD is also affected by Golds current desirablity,
not just the current exchange rate.

I find the subject confusing.
 
Depends on whether it's going up or down in price in the near future.
No one knows the future for sure.
You pays your money and you takes your chances.
 
The 08 AUD and US market crash could be a good indicator of the timings of how things may pan out. Assuming bad fiscal circumstances become irrefutable by the MSM and causes the market to tank PMs are likely to follow in the short term too. And looking at '08 the AUD is looking at some neutering itself.

The lowest USD pm price will be likely to be then and there. But not likely so with AUD purely on price and not on market cycles like Shiney said.

The irony may just be, even with currency conversions and the already black and blue AUD accounted for, that a healthy stack of Benjamin Franklins, the very bill that in large part was b$tch slapped into causing this whole mess, presents itself as the best opportunity to take advantage of the upcoming opening of the gates of hell .... Sorry..... 'Correction'.

It calculates out as a fine line for success based on a number of things probably (though definitely not certainly going each which way). It be almost fun for the game though all in now seems like the percentage play.
JS
 
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