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I hope you are joking.

I never would have seen that angle. That is freaking brilliant.

Interesting. So, let's unpack these numbers. Half my investment would be about $3,500, so if you were able to buy physical at $14/oz on day 1 you bought 250 oz. You then 3 days later sold said 250 oz for a 15% gain or $4,025 which would be $16.10/oz. Great trade. Was it through private dealers...

Just for completeness sake. Trade closed today for a $28 profit per spread after fees (500 margin) or a 5.6% return in 16 days or 126% return annualized. So if you add the $20 from my T trade to the $392 made in this trade I am up $412 on my original ~$7k investment in 17 days. Volatility is...

These bonds were originally issued with positive rates and the rates don't change just the yield does. Made up Example; 20 year bond issued in 2010 for 1,000 with 5% return. Investor gets a $50 every year for 20 years then gets his 1,000 back. If demand is high for these bonds the price rises...

Read that on google already. What does that mean?

Just some food for thought. U.S. Government current debt is 19 trillion. U.S. Income in 2016 projected to be 6.38 trillion. This is a debt to income ratio of 2.97. Average Americans debt to income ratio is 1.77. Average Australian debt to income is 1.85. If you use gdp instead of revenue...

I'm happy with my 12% return annually.

Did some research on this and the best thing I can find is no correlation between premium on physical and volatility.

While extremely cheap at current prices... I'm not interested in stacking turds.

What are swap dealers?

I have said that I do not trust your analysis with regards to probabilities and expected return and the following explains why. 76:1 = 3,355.65 : 46.35 Based on the above quotes. Average win = $46.51 or stock price of 36.00 Probability of T being at or above 36.00 on 3/18/16 95% Average loss =...

Avg win and loss?

Does anyone know when the new generic year of the monkey rounds will be released?

What probabilities did you use to calculate these and how did you get them? Same question with avg win and loss?

I don't like going long Gld and short spx or spy because I don't think they are causative of each other. Also, I am not a fan of buying or selling long term options because they need a huge price movement in the underlying stock to make any kind of gain. So I typically buy the underlying...

A model (black scholes) does give you the probabilities of a stock moving to a specific price. So I do high probability low reward trades with a positive expected return. You do low probability high reward trades with a positive expected return. Neither is better than the other if the expected...

I love the contradictions. If options are expensive sell them. That is what I did. (Doubt you know how to tell if an option is expensive or cheap because they change daily) Yes. I am not too bold brash.... to admit that I am learning how to trade from people that have been successful doing it...

Stupid President's Day. Will have to wait an see if this is still viable on Tuesday.

You are multiplying the ratios when you need to divide them :) Multiplying ratios: (a/b) * (c/d) = ac/bd (1/3) * (1/76) = 1/228 just like (1/76) * (1/3) = 1/228 so which one is the 228 times better? You must divide to find something to be a certain times better. Dividing ratios: (a/b) / (c/d) =...