If you stick to buying silver through our amazing stackers community, and you stick to bullion - instead of numismatics - then you will be able to buy and sell at the SAME SPREAD ... i.e. if you buy (say) Perth Mint 1 kg bars you should be able to get them for around spot + 7% ( 3%) ... then when you flog them you can do so to a fellow stacker and you should get back spot + 7% ( 3%) Thus in the end - give or a take <= 3% variance depending on your rush to sell - the determining factor in how much profit/loss you make is related only to SPOT spread over the time period you own the bar. The buggerup comes when you buy from a dealer at a higher markup and then resell back to a dealer, then you will lose big on spread. savvvie??!?
"You can do so", "rush to sell" and "you should be able to" all come into play which means the price you want is not a guarantee, thats the whole point. This means when you need money or want to sell at a given moment ,things may not work out as expected, when paper has pushed the price up to $49 dealers wont even buy at spot or a few bucks under they may buy at $40. Your left to sell to newbies in the market and if you cant find them whether silver is $40 or $49 makes no difference cause you realise only $40 cash if you want to take advantage of the spike. When your trying to sell the physical, sentiment comes into play as well NOT just the hard number values. On top of that, if the price is falling people make an excuse to pull out of the sale, which means again your going to loose out and left holding the bag. i have sold on both massively rising markets as well as slightly falling and seen the behaviour of buyers on both.
A year or two, or possibly three is my opinion also.. I've slowed down my silver buying, now saving and buying gold. Will still add here and there to my stack because I also believe in long term prospects and realize silver won't go to the moon as soon as I expected.
Personally i havent sold any silver that ive bought and when it hits $70 i might offload some! Im targeting 1000ozs and im over 2/3rds the way there, once i hit 1000ozs i will sit on it and see what the price does over a 12 month period (might buy big dips) For me im still in my 30's and have a lot of yrs left working and as im self employed, i buy silver instead of putting $$$ in my super fund. Ive collected 733ozs since April this yr! so 1000 oz s a yr aint bad accumulating huh? Cheers all Happy stacking
What silver does in relation to fiat is really a foregone conclusion over the long term. $50 in today's value will be far less in a few years with all the printing, so why Silver wouldn't hit $50 and keep going isn't really a question at all of if - but when. A 100 trillion dollar Zimbabwe note wouldn't buy you 1oz of silver, so debating 'value' in terms of paper currency is really a moot issue at the end of the day.
Thing is, printing = inflation. But if deflation is in full force, then fiat gains so much power, so the value goes up as time passes (e.g. Japan). The big question right now is, inflation or deflation.
Inflation can come from either oversupply of credit or a lack of confidence in the currency can't it? If its a lack of confidence in the currency, at the same time as say a restriction of credit, Couldn't you have both at once?
In fiat currencies with high levels of government debt, severe deflation causes a loss of confidence in the nation's currency by shrinking the economy and making the government's debt appear increasingly unsustainable. This loss of confidence then causes the flow of money to speed up as individuals become desperate to exchange cash for real goods as quickly as possible resulting in high inflation.
In deflation, there will be cash hoarding. Severe deflation actually makes everyone stop spending for fear it will be cheaper next week/month. Yes, the economy shrinks, but spending power of cash increases. Loss of confidence only if foreign debt is unserviceable. Japan has national debt exceeding 200% of GDP but this is owed internally, so they are still seen as stable. Japan is the best case study for deflation. Their money did not collapse, in fact they became safe haven.
Let's keep it simple. There are no safe havens in this day and age. Everything carries risk. We can all debate about what vehicles will manage our risk exposure best, but it's all just a guessing game. You can't even trade/invest on fundamentals anymore because they're regularly thrown under the bus. There's far too much uncertainty surrounding everything, everywhere, right now.
I am not arguing for any safe havens, I just want to know YKY's point of view. I am merely learning here, so I explore contradictory point of views. I don't think anyone should look for a safe haven because everything is volatile right now. JPY is one safe haven that can always go under the bus a la swiss franc.
My point of view is that the coming financial crisis will play out as a period of deflation followed by a period of high inflation. You need not agree with me, but i'm not alone in believing it will play out this way. or do you think all that fiat pulled out of Bernanke' arse is going to have no inflationary consequences down the road? :lol:
The inflation already happened, in the resulting lowered USD and higher commodity prices. Unless they start qe3/4/and to infinity and beyond, further weakening can not be priced in. At qe4, us credit rating would probably be downgraded 2 notches. QE is politically unfavorable because it weakens the dollar, making living cost high but still does not stimulate the economy as hoped.
