Yep, looking at tops and bottoms can be very misleading. Averages reflect silver supply/demand reality, not tops and bottoms. To give some longterm figures: 1970-1982 $6.83 1983-1992 $5.72 1993-2003 $5.01 2004-2014 $18.11 So todays price sits pretty close to the average of the past decade.
If the Aussie dollar collapses against the USD, you'll wish you had purchased. Some buy top quality Lucerne hay for top dollar during the drought. Some sell top quality lucerne hay during the drought. Some have to have lucerne, some love the smell of lucerne and just want more for their stack. If you have farm animals that eat lucerne and there's a likely hood that lucerne prices may be more expensive perhaps buy what you can afford and stack it in a water-proof shed. Seriously.... War drums in Persia...war drums in the Ukraine...likely build-up of arms and logistics in Poland...ocean land disputes between China and Japan...al qaeda likely to open a new front in India...Likely hood of a major terrorist action on US soil and Australia...Public opinion against the Islamic community in many countries...influx of refugees from Africa, Syria etc and economic refugees causing civil unrest...and of course...currencies printed out of thin air. Better buy a few ounces / Kilo's of silver now I'd say...also stack some lucerne.
Wait at least a bit. Perhaps it'll go sub-17 $ this year. And this autumn could still be a good time to buy some.
I think it all comes down to upside / downside risk. I think US$15 is a pretty reasonable bottom, I can't see it going below that for any length of time. Since its about US$18 now, that's a downside of $3 which is probably about the same as a sudden upswing. There was a short period of time around the US government shutdown last year when silver was up at $24, and a part of me wished I sold everything I had then and rebought now. Still if it goes to $15 I wish I had held off!! If such things bother you just dollar-cost-average and take heart that you're trading your worthless fiat for something of real value. That or buy stocks...the Dow is hot right not
ahh, stocks, i don't want to hear about them, not even as a joke. In the past I had not much luck with them. Some I made money, most I did not. One was a real shocker that withered down in price to nothing. That was Davnet.
When the US government will raise interest rates, the price will drop to $15/oz. Wait. Even though all the silver bugs will say that I am crazy. Though the Australian $ might devalue somehow.
I wish! I'll be happy with ONE house in Melbourne's cheaper suburbs! If one day Silver hits $200 and around the same time houses prices drop sharply then it could be a reality. But I got to keep stacking for the next 3-5 years and Silver cannot skyrocket til after then or else I missed the boat/rocket.
Buy. I Have picked up maybe 16 0z the past 2 wks. I Go with my gut Instinct always! I Just don't see It goin below 16 anytime soon Graydragon
Unless you are earning USD, there's no point focusing on the silver spot price on isolation. There is also exchange rate risk with any prediction of the spot price.
Yes: stock market would drop, US$ would go up, silver prices would drop. Net result for silver in A$? It depends. But I am in HK, and the HK$ is pegged to the US$, so in HK the price of silver will drop.
Then pigs will fly and we will live happily ever after....... The Fed can never ever ever raise rates again. Yes they can make an attempt at 0.1% rise nothing meaningful. That is not a real rise but I agree it will fool the sheeple for a little while longer. If Interest rates went up to 5-6% which is an average rate prior to 2000 then the payment on the national debt will go from 250B to north of 1T (close to 1.1 T). Then add the 0.5T-1T deficit and the Millitary you all out of cash
Ronnie, I don't think so. Give me the math. And I think that a lot of US government debt is simply money given to bank for very short term "investments" (e.g. overnight). If the fed wants to stop this, it can do it. Of course the stock markets will drop, since banks have less money to buy shares, but the debt would very rapidly drop. It's not that all money given by the fed is long-term debt. I don't know if what I write makes sense? But I think this is the essence of their loans and free money given out to banks.
Cheepo you are confusing me. The Fed's balance sheet is not the US government debt ? The Fed/banks own about 10% of the debt but most is owned by foreign countries (40%) individuals and hedge funds. So will raising the interest rate reduce the debt - no as they will have to increase the loans from the Fed to pay the interest. Also remember operation Twist ????? The fed swapped all its short term loans for 10-30 year paper - not much short term stuff left there ?
The markets are pricing in a rise (maybe not immediately, but eventually). I've argued that Australia is in a far more difficult position than the US wrt raising rates.
Ronnie, I have given a more complete (though equally confusing) explanation here: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-56454-opposite-view-of-precious-metal-bugs-page-2.html Basically if the borrowed money is long term, it's at a fixed interest rate, right? So if they raise the interest rate, it's going to be on the new loans, not on the old ones, right? So, there you go. As long as they don't make new loans (joke), they don't need to worry about higher interest rates. So I don't really see the problem. Anyway, I might be wrong, but I don't think you can just say: 17 trillions of debt = can never raise interest rates. It's simply not as simple.
Cheepo the problem is the US has a deficit of over a T$ in real terms each and every year there is no end no fix and I think it is that simple cash must lose its value. ZIRP and NIRP forever. Until the system resets ..............
