GP. How come only one of the two fighters got suspended? Is there a difference between fighting and sledging? With only one suspension, it looks like the one left can have the final say. I know it must be hard to make a decision when these situations arise and there probably is maybe PM's involved. I feel a little guilty myself for posting this thread in the first place. I feel that there was a lot of good video links and comments made and a lot of interest shown. However. I don't like it when someone gets suspended for responding to an issue that I raised. I like all of the outspoken posters on this site, for having the courage to state their views sometimes against spirited opposition. I very seldom get into debates these days for I care not whether I am right or wrong. Whats the point? If you don't believe in yourself then no one else will. In saying that however, I am always ready to listen and change my position if I have a better alternative view pointed out. You can't always be right! Regards Errol 43 Now is the World Financial Crisis Over? My conclusion, NO!
In between the personal insults (both ways) this thread is actually a good read. I think we all know the WFC is just getting started, but good luck figuring out exact time frames, staying aware and keeping a fluid approach isn't going to hurt anybody.
Dellers i think you nailed it with your last sentence staying aware & keeping a fluid approach isnt going to hurt anybody . & that is the main reason i get so vocal on these types of threads .With the all the doom & gloom thrown about there needs to be some sort of level ground for people to work with not a 100% doomsday scenario portrayed .If it wasnt for myself & a couple of others this place would be over run by the doomsday brigade Unlike many think i do know the world economy is in a mess & there is very little anyone can do to save it Also oz will be affected but there wont be a 1930s style depression like auspm keeps posting & the others cheer on & agree with . We are somewhat insulated because of the region we are in & being the main supplier of resources in the region ...Like i asked in an earlier post if all the countries in the world had a GFC in 2008 that conveniently went unanswered because it would not suit their stance .Its obviously not the case & some countries just cruise through the whole mess as will happen in the next one knowing which ones will is up to the individual to do their homework & make their own decisions . To paint a picture thats obviously isnt correct will always get my attention & a little commonsense needs to prevail . My question to those who are doing nothing because of the impending doom is do you really think stacking a few metals is the only thing you should be doind or should you be working like a madman trying to secure your future incase of any such scenario . Most here are sitting on their hands waiting for the crash then they say they will pounce into action when it does . To me thats just total BS because people that are "doers" always do it & dont just do nothing for years until & hypothetical scenario might or might not arise . How long will you wait ? i know some here have been waiting 3 years . lol My next question is how many opportunities will actually be available to their obviously limited talents to make monoey in those hard times .When there will be thousands of others trying the same thing with very little money being spent . ...think about that for a while . So make hay while the sun shines because the sun will set one day & it will be cloudy for years for some .your opportunities for making money will be diminished significantly in those times . Thats why my advice is do it while you can im not sure the opportunities will be there when things turn pear shaped .
Errol i think it was because i took it on the chin & stopped while aus kept the abuse & swearing going (which has been cleaned up a bit ) after the fact .When the referee blows the whistle you have to listen not argue .Argueing with the ref will only get you sent off as my many years of sport has tought me
As always making assumptions with no basis in fact. What do you think, that people who predict dire financial consequences are sitting in their basement living in fear? I would say the vast majority of us, if not all of us, are out there securing our future as best we can. part of that is finding out how economics actually works and adjusting your portfolios accordingly. There are powerful economic forces in this world, and if you don't know what's going on, then you are just getting blown around by the winds of economic fortune. Maybe you'll get lucky and maybe you won't. Might as well put your money on red if that is going to be your approach. It would be useful if you added something substantive to the forum instead of near-constant trolling and baiting. This isn't the pub where you just joke around and mess around. If everyone did what you did on this forum it would be virtually useless. Any useful signal drowned out by incessant noise. I realise you never grew up, but it would be useful if you at least tried to pretend to behave like an adult.
I will bet that the power companies will do the same thing that Sydney water did - They encouraged us to use less, so we did, then they complained that their profits were dropping because of the decreased demand and applied to put up prices to recover their profit margins. These companies are scum.
Guaranteed to happen. Broadly most of the infrastructure costs are fixed costs associated with the capital. Less demand due to the manufacturing industry shut down, carbon tax, distributed solar schemes among other things means that the same cost of capital needs to be smeared across less kilowatt hours. So just like the water infrastructure the fixed charge component will go up per kWh used. Ordinarily the generation cost would also fall as demand falls but this has partially (or fully) been negated by the carbon tax. Even people who have grabbed the various Govt subsidies with both hands and are net producers from their solar arrays still need access to the grid. The electricity network and market is very complex so there are lots of nuances of course but the basic story is that the cost per kWh will most likely increase as the kWh's consumed fall - or wear a fixed charge if you are a net producer. This has always been one of the biggest holes in the cost-benefit analyses that people have produced showing the purported benefits of rooftop solar, mandated energy efficiency improvements, etc.
I read a lot of threads here including the shares & charting threads & i have to say you guys havent made many good calls . If you think gaining a little & the losing it all again is winning your kidding yourselves .. So my assumptions are founded in facts that you yourselves have put in black & white . While others are by their own admission wage slaves also if you think that is the way to wealth & early retirement you are also kidding. I will say i take particular notice of the more vocal & prolific posters for information that i base my assumptions on . You guys just dont like me because i talk straight & dont dance around the subject then do a backflip to try to correct anything As far as it isnt the pub you might want to go down there one day & speak to some real people & see how out of touch you are with whats reality..Not everyone is a university graduate with a diploma & theres some great people that arent over educated & by the sounds of it you dont associate with any of them by your pub remark. Many of then have more money than you will ever see & spend more at that pub in a week than you can afford to spend on metals .in a month . If you want to start the name calling where auspm left off feel free i will beat you with facts just as i do him Just because i dont talk like you doesnt mean im not worthy of being on here like you & the others seem to believe .. You & about 4 or 5 others out of thousands want to run the show with your tinfoil hats .....It aint gonna happen get used to it . Try to belittle me all you like it has no effect .It shows you have nothing left
Rennovator as for Australia being stuffed an argument could be made that we are seen as a speculative/risk on trade (hence why 98% of our currency is traded for speculation/investment purposes). Basically if the U.S. and Europe fall to pieces and there is a flight back to the U.S. dollar, which means the Aussie dollar will drop, but more importantly foreign capital will withdraw from Australia bringing tough times to Australia. As to how tough things could get in Australia who knows. As for government debt levels interest rates are just as important as government debt to GDP ratios look how Greece has fallen apart even though it has far less government debt than Japan because of higher government bond rates. If foreign capital withdraws from Australia due to a global flight to U.S. dollars then our government bond rates could go up. The market in my view will definitely not tolerate Australia having high government debt levels therefore even 3 or 4 more years multi billion dollar deficits could spook the bond markets (both for the government and banks). As for shares rennovator if you look at some of the threads for non-mining stocks they have done well e.g. Credit Corp (CCP) my pick which has its own thread, or Customers (CUS) (Big A.D. talked about this one) which got taken over at a premium after the company underperformed. Cash Convertors (CCV) has also done well. For those dabbling in risky mining stocks with no track record of profitability (i.e. most stocks on the stock forum here) yes they will likely lose money overall) As for the issue of wage slaves I agree it is not the way to wealth for most people, however many lack business acumen and will end up broke if they decide to become businessman its not for everyone. Some that families and mortgages to support (not me though) can't afford to take those kinds of risks of failure.
Im sure some shares have done ok but the majority have been duds .I wouldnt be in too deep in the share market . What baffles me is the same people that generally champion the big fall scenario dabble in shares & they are the first thing to lose value in a crisis ....cant work that one out . my problem i think with some of these guys is they say they are doing good ....just ask them ....but they complain about not being able to afford a house ....what ?. Their posts tell the tale of their finances in general .Anyone who is travelling ok would own or be well on the way to owning a house not saying its an overvalued asset & gambling that it will fall & the rent they paid will be far less than the interest . If they had so much income even an overvalued asset would be a fraction of their income & that i believe is the deciding factor for most when they buy a house .& will they money be available to borrow when the shtf. Theres a lot of variables that the so called educated guys here are forgetting focusing on the meagre gains to be had in the future . Most have paid around 50 or 60K in rent over the last 3 years waiting & in a lot of areas thats all they have dropped so they have saved ZERO. I know some will say i share a house so its been cheaper . If they were buying the house they could rent the rooms out with their mates & their share would have been much the same as renting a room . I just dont get it .They have created a false economy in their heads Back to the topic if our dollar drops i believe foreign investment will increase because oz is a very desirable place to live . Thats something that i feel a lot forget when thinking about oz people are spending billions here now when the AUD is high think about how much more will come if it drops a bit . Its all about the safety the climate the environment the welfare & health systems we have that attracts them here it has nothing to do with the economy . So imo it doesnt matter where the dollar is . you say if the US & europe fall to pieces there will be a flight to the USD ? i think it wont be worth buying & people will be dumping it like garbage . when the day comes that it goes south . which im not sure will happen for a while yet . If im wrong i'll be here eating humble pie catching the tomatoes theyre throwing at me with my teeth :lol:
Rennovator I think you've got things backwards. Our dollar declining would be caused by a withdrawal of foreign capital. Foreign capital flows drive our dollar not the other way round as you suggest. Yes eventually if our dollar stays weak for a prolonged period of time that could attract foreign investment but the reason for a low dollar is likely to be lack of confidence from overseas investors/speculators. Also if our dollar is weak because our economy is weak then foreigners would view the dollar weakness as a sign of economic troubles and therefore be less inclined to invest. Do people always invest in third world countries with currencies that could hyperinflate because the currency is weak and the conversion rate is attractive? Sometimes a weak currency is a sign of trouble rather than an attractive entry point it all depends on the circumstances. As for a flight to U.S. dollars it could happen because the U.S. dollar is still the world's reserve currency and still the largest and most liquid bond market. This is irrational but has happened in the past from time to time (e.g. think 2008/2009) and could occur again in the future. As for shares if you own shares in companies that are increasing their profits and paying you increasing dividends who cares if the sharemarket crashes and takes the share price down with it, just sit there and collect the increasing dividends and the share price will eventually recover. I wouldn't be buying the market, however if you find individual shares that are a bargain go for it (I'm having trouble finding bargains at the moment).
I think this is called passion. Here is the finale but go from Part 1 if you need to know the scary figures on why the crisis is NOT over, in fact it hasn't really started yet. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyvIu8IcAvA[/youtube] From 8:20 minutes in some talk of Australia and New Zealand for those who want to narrow it down. Quo Vadis? - interesting question she poses.
I think you put too much emphasis on the one thing with our dollar .A simple interest rate cut can send it down it doesnt need a withdrawal of capital theres lots of reasons that can do it .Foreign investment will always be strong for the reasons ive mentioned its a very desirable place to live .. What has investing in a third world country got to do with australia ? we will never be a third world country so thats a moot point my remark about the usd was if it tanks . i undestand the fools might buy into it but i feel its days are numbered as the number one currency to go to for obvious reasons.
