Looking at past monthly charts the silver price tends to be lower in June, July August , higher end of year but those trends were when the financial situation was more stable, anything is possible at the moment, it is all a gamble! - maybe the price will creep up again by the end of the year but probably not over $50.
Well, few weeks back I said we are going for $60, I like the way we are going, still $60 is my mark and keep holding the Plata until we pass the 00's. good luck!
To my thinking. Depression means less industial use and a fall in silvers use and value. Also means less money for speculation and so also again a fall in Silvers value.
No. That's based on what happened recently when it neared $US50. It got smashed. It's a rigged f$&@ing game. The big boys rule the roost. We can't compete. Please don't fill the rest of this thread with 'paper-physical spread' 'crash JPM' or 'COMEX default' It's all bull5h1t. It's a game. It's rigged. Just like the stock market. Just like rhodium a few years back. Just like property. It's a joke. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrggggghhhhhhhhh. Rant over.
You know what, with the safe fundamentals and the state of paper money and conflict in the middle east, we could very well see a silver price as high as $100 (this will happen evenutally). To many factors can influence the price in the short term to make a correct prediction with an accurate time horizon realistic but $100 is the direction we are looking at. Some catalysts to boost silver to $100 could be: QE3 WW3 (as this would lead to govts stockpiling for ammo strategically) and may also freeze bullion markets Strong growth in 3rd world countries Industrial shortage further financial contagion in club med and europe bullion bank run (default) - due to demanded delivery exposed manipulation by gata with prosection Bullion Bank bankruptcy China Silver Standard US debt default - US Debt Ceiling *(explain the difference.. LOL) increased "PHYSICAL" investment demand Australia getting a climate tax and a resources tax both in one year (this will be a supply side price push). Mining companies leaving the industry and mine depletion (iron ore and other primary metals mines with silver as a by-product) further industrail application patents.. SOLAR, CATALYTIC CONVERTER for DEISEL/ELECTORINC motor I could go on... 1for1
During the Australian Banking Crisis of 1893, there were some people "who insisted on carrying transactions in gold sovereigns" as "they were suspicious of paper money". Smaller banks at the time couldn't redeem their outstanding bank notes for "sovereigns, or even silver currency". "They had banked on the accepted idea that there would never come a time when they would have to meet all their commitments at one time." At the time industry was on its knees - people were out on the streets in the thousands, unemployed. "There were literally thousands sleeping in the Domain, Hyde Park, Belmore Park and in University Park. The government opened up its wool storage sheds at Circular Quay as shelters." Basically, it's pretty bullish for silver, but mostly for gold. Source: The Great Bust by Jack Lang
You can't compare then to now without highlighting the big difference. Back then the banks issued their own money. The modern day equivalent would be company bonds (bad example but as close as I can think of quickly). If the particular bank looked wobbly then their paper was worth very little but if the bank was strong and had good asset backing (gold, silver, property, cash, foreign bonds, deposits etc) then it's paper money hold MOST of it's value. The same as company bonds today. If the company is considered "safe" then the bonds hold their value but if the company wobbles - the bonds are hit very hard, very quickly and basically become toilet paper (eg some of the REITs over the last couple of years). Like it or not - paper money issued today is backed by Governments. Governments aren't a backable asset on their own but the population is. If everything goes down the toilet then the government can rely on it's population (ie taxes) to dig it out of the problems. This is much more secure than any property, gold, silver, bonds etc. The banks in the 1890s didn't have this advantage. Before I get shot - No - this does NOT make governments or paper money infallible. It does however provide a lot more security and stability than was around during the time of the banking crisis of 1893 without the necessity of paper money being backed by physical (ie gold and silver) assets. malachii
I dont think you're far wrong actually, except wouldn't gold and silver shoot upwards in the event of (more) war?
I remember Bob Chapman predicting silver to reach somewhere between $60 and $80 by the end of June, but that was in US dollars... A tad optimistic in my opinion time wise, but perhaps later this year
Personally i love it that its rigged! means i can collect more ounces than if silver was not manipulated down. But the real sweetener is the fact that those big boyz who are doing the rigging wont be able to do it forever. and once that party stops, well then i guess those who stopped buying at whatever price will begin to have some regrets. but regrets will be too late as it will be impossible to "get back in"
Costello was probably thinking that when he sold off two thirds of Australias gold. :/ With no one left to bail out Australia (everyone will be too poor fighting their own post-GFC2 depression) and the local housing bubble popping, I can see the banks toxic assets taking them down. The people (foreign investors included) will want their money, the banks won't be able to supply it. Back then they just closed the doors. These days our balances are mostly electronic and can be zero'd out overnight. NAB gave us a sneak preview of a 21st century Black Friday. Some people actually had to go to a friends place to eat that weekend or borrow physical cash from family. So what do we barter with when the banks close the doors? Commodities, including PMs.
That is of course assuming that the citizens of said country will accept being strung up by their supposed elected officials for all the debt owed by the government, which in the case of the US is tantamount to its citizens being reduced to becoming slaves of the "government". Once they realise they've been fleeced i dont think the paper money "backing" will be as strong as you believe. It definately wont in the US, where 300 million gun wielding citizens will definately need to be listened to by government. Here in Australia it may be different though since its citizens have already been disarmed by the government. It's going to get interesting thats for sure
Stop being such a drop bear Time to pull out that old dusty "To DA Moon!" flag and charge towards the enemy! Well not yet, it's still not GFC2. :/ The reason crash JPM didn't work was because lots of people who joined the movement had weak hands and butter fingers. Even a granny with arthritis had stronger hands. Then there were those with delusions of getting-rich-quick and they got burnt by following YouTube preachers and conmen, so now they've got burnt granny hands with arthritis. Can't hope that they can maintain the momentum to climax. Those still holding have the bulls or wear tin foil hats. With enough effort and strong hands the silver market could be cornered. As a tin foil hat wearer, my objectives aren't about crashing JPM and all that, it's mainly to prepare for a rainy day, but by holding I'm indirectly a supporter of such plans. I don't mind really. Cornering the silver market would be cool though, just to say it was done
No matter what the tax payers think or do - the debt will always be collected. Have you seen the debt of some of the 3rd world countries? The government changes hands (usually violently) like most change their undies but the debt burdened against the "citizens" remains and has too be paid. Even if the US had a civil uprising - do you really expect China to say "Ah - you've changed governments - you don't need to pay off the debt". If a country thinks it can refuse to pay it's debts - it will be in for a rude awakening. In case you hadn't noticed - we are all "slaves" of our Governments. Try not paying your taxes and you'll soon see how much of a "free" person you are. malachii
I completely agree with you but it should be noted that several governments in the past have inflated their way out of debt. Oh they'll pay it back, just with worthless paper
Countries often refuse to pay their debts, and generally nothing particularly bad happens to them at all. They might be unable to borrow money on international debt markets for a few years but that's about all the consequences that eventuate.
Whether banks fail or not has little to do with the "backing" of the paper money. This is the difference I was trying to point out before. Banks may fail (Bank of Vic anyone? - I know, it didn't fail but would have if the CBA hadn't "come to it's rescue". Pyramid is an example of a failure but was a building society) but that does not mean our currency will be worthless. We will still have commodites to sell, people to pay taxes, carbon taxes to pay and GST to relieve people of their hard earned. The banks will have an interesting time if/when our property bubble "pops" but a lot of the more toxic debts will have pushed on to others (check where your superannuation fund is investing - makes for interesting/worrying reading if you really believe there will be a major fall out from a property bubble!). If banks do close their doors (still as possible as back in the 1890s) I'm not sure how much good PMs will really be. I know I would be reluctant to swap my food/equipment etc for PMs. Maybe gold - but not silver - it's value relies too much on industrial uses and if there is a SHTF scenario - the main demand of silver will plummet causing an excess of silver on the market. Just look at GFC1 for an introduction to that. malachii
The countries that have lent them money will still pursue them. They maybe able to dodge it for a while but eventually they have to pay. This was the whole thing behind the "cancel the 3rd world debt" rally a year or two ago. The debts they had racked up over the years were burying them and they were being forced to pay. I noticed that not a lot (in the grand scheme of things) was cancelled. malachii
