What's the point of numismatics when you are gone?

Discussion in 'Numismatics' started by SilverDJ, Aug 19, 2019.

  1. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    Let's say you collect numismatics for their potential growth value.
    What happens if you kick the bucket?
    Even if you left a detailed guide to how much they are worth and were to sell them, would your next of kin bother to try and sell them individually to other collectors to try and get the maximum value, or would they just take the lot to a dealer and get spot or under?
    I suspect it'll mostly be the latter.
     
  2. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Some people enjoy collecting and that's their return. Who gives a stuff when you're dead.
     
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  3. Jislizard

    Jislizard Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Most of the numismatists I know are well aware that their kids are not interested and several have already started selling off areas that they are no longer interested in or actively collecting.

    Not many were buying as investments, they were in it for the fun so most of the numismatics are actually pretty decent coins rather than limited edition modern collectors non-circulating legal tender Philatelic-Numismatic Covers or stuff like that.

    I have bought a few numismatics for the potential growth but they have no silver content so I doubt a dealer would give my wife anything for them, I think I will just flog them and get something else I like instead.
     
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  4. GoldenEye

    GoldenEye Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    My kids weren’t interested in PMs until I put a bar of gold in my daughter’s hand and told her what it was worth.
     
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  5. Silverdale

    Silverdale Active Member

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    I give my kids coins for their birthday and Christmas and when ever they do good things each time I tell them about the coin and mintage.
    By the time I die they should have great collections of their own and a lot of knowledge
     
  6. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    Of course, but that's why I said "for their potential growth value", and adding in the wild card of kicking the bucket.
    I'm sure there are those collectors who would care what their stash got sold for?
     
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  7. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Depends a bit on the amount of time that has passed and how collectible. I would have appreciated it a lot if my grandfather has collected 1930s penny’s. Real increase in value there. But I think my collectible value to disappear over time. And their main value will be the PM content. So no value in collecting today’s numismatics. Just like collecting toys. They have to be really unique and special to hold any real value. IMHO
     
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  8. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I have a decent stamp collection from when I was a kid and I wouldn't even know who to give it to, I doubt that anyone would even care. Maybe coin collections aren't that much different unless they have bullion value to most people.
     
  9. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's one of the reasons that David Gilmour just got rid of his guitar collection I think. A '56 Strat that might be worth $70,000.00 now may well be worth a tenth of that in 20 years time as the generation of people who grew up with guitar music and rock disappear to be replaced with a generation that grew up listening to loop based laptop music. That Strat is only a collectible icon to someone who has a context for appreciating it.
     
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  10. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Good vinyl is doing pretty well. But time changes everything. Who knows what future generations will desire.
     
  11. Agnostic

    Agnostic Active Member Silver Stacker

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    So I hated life, because the work that is done under the sun was grievous to me. All of it is meaningless, a chasing after the wind.
    I hated all the things I had toiled for under the sun, because I must leave them to the one who comes after me.
    And who knows whether that person will be wise or foolish? Yet they will have control over all the fruit of my toil into which I have poured my effort and skill under the sun. This too is meaningless.
    So my heart began to despair over all my toilsome labor under the sun.
    For a person may labor with wisdom, knowledge and skill, and then they must leave all they own to another who has not toiled for it. This too is meaningless and a great misfortune.
    What do people get for all the toil and anxious striving with which they labor under the sun?
    All their days their work is grief and pain; even at night their minds do not rest. This too is meaningless.
    A person can do nothing better than to eat and drink and find satisfaction in their own toil. This too, I see, is from the hand of God, for without him, who can eat or find enjoyment?
    To the person who pleases him, God gives wisdom, knowledge and happiness, but to the sinner he gives the task of gathering and storing up wealth to hand it over to the one who pleases God. This too is meaningless, a chasing after the wind.

    Ecclesiastes 2:17-26
    Written by one of the biggest stackers of all time, King Solomon
     
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  12. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I take it it’s agnostic in name only?
     
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  13. Agnostic

    Agnostic Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Its agnostic in regards to Ag!
     
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  14. Art in Coins

    Art in Coins New Member

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    Truth be told, there's no guarantee of future value on bullion products either. One massive deposit discovery (easily accessible) could potentially destroy the value of the gold or silver markets overnight. As I inform my "new - to - precious metals" clients, numismatics / collector sets are really for thematic appreciation or gifting only. Since the premiums are already massive on the low mintage boxed sets, investment should never be a first consideration. (although some coins do prove to have a great return, it's the exception, not the rule)
     
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  15. STKR

    STKR Active Member

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    As far as silver is concerned, even if a massive deposit was found, every mine has a yearly production limit and takes a significant amount of time from discovery to production. Sometimes it takes longer than a decade before a single Oz can be produced. The largest silver mines typically produce between 30-50 million ounces of silver annually and that doesn't even come close to filling the yearly deficit between the global mining supply and global demand of up to 250 million Oz's.

    If we had yearly surpluses between supply and demand, the discovery of a large deposit would be detrimental to Silver's bottom line, but we don't. The floor in the Silver price, in my view, is based on the All-In-Sustaining-Costs (AISC) of primary silver mines. This appears to be around the $14-$15 USD range, yet the total cost of production can be much higher, as the AISC figures don't account for the additional costs that aren't directly associated with the mining process, like administration, accounting, and the interest on debt.

    I'm not convinced that the price of silver will ever again go below the $12-$13 USD unless industrial demand dries up and we begin seeing large surpluses.
     
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  16. Art in Coins

    Art in Coins New Member

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    Agree, silver is a bit tougher in terms of production since it's often a by product of other base metal mining... thinks there's only a handful of actual "silver" mines in the world and since most is consumed industrially, I don't expect the price to crater all that much even with a large discovery. Gold is much more sensitive.
     
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  17. whay

    whay Active Member

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    The price is determined by futures contracts and the organizations buying PM they don't really want, from those who don't have any. All the factors you mentioned - new ore discovery, demand/supply, surpluses/deficit, all in production cost, bah bah, yadayada and other metal pumpers' weekly intelligent sounding theory have zero, - 0 - nada influence on the manipulated comex price.
     
  18. Art in Coins

    Art in Coins New Member

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    My point has nothing at all to do with the manipulated Comex and price discovery mechanisms inherit in the PM markets... there's seemingly no fighting bottomless printed fiat and naked futures contracts. But in a true market, a massive influx of new supply (even just the news of a large economic find) would crush the price and since the manipulations are already to the down side, it'd be all that much worse.
     
  19. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    I made sure my family knows the value of real money and my kids are stackers too.
    I dont buy numismatic coins so theres no worry there. Education is key for peace of mind with that topic.

    When I leave this world I will have no worries and my family will have it for them.
     
  20. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    That is simply not true. If it were true, then the price of silver would be $5 on the Comex, etc. The price has stayed above $14 because that is approximately what the all-in production cost is (some may be higher, some a bit lower). By all in costs I mean everything. Some mine companies say they pay $5 or so per ounce for their silver in production costs, but the company shows a loss every year?

    A person who is long a Comex contract may stand for delivery of the underlying commodity. This means the short holder has to deliver the metal (through certain procedural mechanisms).

    Yes, probably 99% of the Comex players don't stand for delivery but instead use the Comex as a way to gamble on commodities, but if they want the commodity, they are entitled to ask for that. If the Comex price was that far from actual cost (say $5 per ounce), the short would not be able financially to deliver when the price they pay on the street is 3x the Comex price for physical silver.

    A few years ago some BS PM pundits were claiming it was not possible to stand for delivery anymore and if you tried, you were secretly paid a "premium" to go away and not stand for delivery. Not true.

    FWIW, the Comex type system is not in my opinion a "fair" system for the reasons that you can sell something you don't own at the time you sell it. This is the hocus pocus that does allow for "manipulation" in the sense deep pockets can move the market without ever touching any gold, silver, etc, and this is because so many fail to stand for delivery. If every long stood for delivery, the price would be much higher in my opinion. But that is the way the game is played.

    Once they allowed Bitcoin Comex futures that was the death knell for bitcoin for the same reasons.

    So while there is what you may call "manipulation" it is held in check to some degree by the fact the long can stand for delivery, then the short has to pay the piper.

    Right now I can get 90% junk silver for close to melt. If the "manipulation" really mattered, there would be a $5 premium per ounce instead of close to melt pricing.

    Remember, in 2011 silver went to $50 on the Comex. Was the manipulation stopped to allow that, or was that price "manipulation" too?
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2019
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