Essentially, this is the only point we disagree on - the ability to ramp up production if price makes it feasible. And after we each put our view forward, it is this issue that will ultimately determine the ratio outcome. Time will tell. In the meantime, I've laid my bets on gold for reasons already posted above. Looks like I also need more of whatever J Gault is taking. Good having a discussion with you. Cheers.
2020 will be a good year for silver and gold. Remember that the PTB will try to eventually rid us of cash; hard assets are always good to have. A few extra ounces of silver can never hurt; don't forget to keep an eye on platinum too. Many of the Platinum Platypus coins are still quite expensive to buy, the Perth Mint Australian Kangaroo Platinum coins might be the ticket for atleast a few ounces. IMO, platinum will bounce back sooner or later and as they say, it's un-loved atm. Sure, some are saying the end of catalytic converters and all that, but eventually Platinum will again smash gold prices longterm. Having said that, this thread is about silver so sorry for the digression. Silver is the ticket, it's still very cheap. H.
I've been very interested in pt since Sept 2018, but so far only a fun buy. Silver is no brainer. Pt is challenging to take the plunge because it looks like silver but at a much higher price and similar premium to silver. In value investment, to buy undervalued stuff, often, the fundamentals are against it. So, it is going against the crowd. Why is platinum so cheap? Because all the odds are against it. Falling catalytic converter demand and rising stock levels. Similarly so for silver, it is cheap because of falling demand from photography and stagnant industrial and investment demand. So, cheapness has a reason and being a contrarian is not easy. There's also the risk that what is cheap can become even cheaper. The competition for silver and gold is the stock market and bubble. The potential for silver is the monetary demand for it, which currently doesn't really exist and all of us in it are betting that this demand will appear in the future.
^ Platinum is yet another industrial metal that's going to be heavily affected by the coming crises. Industrial collapse will drag it down, just like silver. Gold is king right now
I'm thinking more about an industrial decline. Severe one. But the 2008 crisis also slammed the industrial use of Platinum, as it can be seen on this chart: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/infographics/platinum-industrial-use# The global industrial slowdown will impact the price for sure.
Thanks for the chart, interesting to see that Pt price is much higher in 2008 than today. And most of us investors in pt bought in around $800-$900 which is even lower than today's price. I’m also wary of this industrial slowdown thing so I’m cost averaging along the way but there are disadvantages to doing this in a rising market as it increases the average costs. There is the problem of having the will to buy when the downturn really comes. By then, there will be too many distractions like doom and gloom news on the media, the security of one’s job, family problems, partner lost his or her job or unhappiness, and as a result, the likelihood of not buying anything, or buying too little (like a fun buy) is very high. As in all downturns, the rebound will be very sharp and fast and by the time there is a will to buy, the price will be over $1000. The lowest pt will go to in a downturn is $600 probably for 1-2 weeks before the rebound and provided you can find physical platinum which I can guarantee not a lot can be found at that price. The dealers will be buying it for themselves or refuse to sell. All the above assumes there will be deflation. It could turnout to be inflationary instead and one would have totally missed out the opportunity, and in 10 years when pt is $10k-15k an ounce, one would look back and wonder at what one was thinking today by trying to save $200-$300 an ounce and then miss out gains of $10k an ounce.
