yep, was just about to write that xmas only predates political correctness by a few hundred years. how's the silver price going?
A commenter I follow believes that silver might repeat what it did early this year, rising into Jan and then slamming down again before the real spike to $20 in H2 2020. While I won’t put much weight on this comment but it’s not impossible. Another year of zigzagging to throw off more stackers?
HAPPY CHRISTmas to you too COURT CLOWN. Jeez, it's been pleasant having you on my NO-SEE LIST. I slipped up & checked the thread without logging in. I hope, amongst your NEW YEAR's RESOLUTIONS, is one to GROW UP. _JOHNLGALT.
I think it's a good time of year for self reflection. But remember, the behaviors or qualities we dislike in others, is a reflection of the behaviors and qualities we dislike within ourselves. We are all at different stages of growth in different areas of our lives. Teacher's and students are not defined by age and personal growth can come from unsuspecting places. The truth is, being kind and respectful in your approach is more likely to lead to desirable and mutually beneficial outcomes, than being spiteful and vindictive. Sometimes it's simply better to walk the higher ground than to lower yourself to the same standard that you disapprove of in others. I love you all! You're my people and for the first time in many "Woke" years, I feel like there's hope for all of us moving forward. We need each other and shouldn't take the opportunity forums like SS create for us all, for granted. We should take this opportunity to unite, rather than focus on our trivial differences.
@STKR whilst we are pontificating here on the future of Silver & the Future of mankind I'd just like to put my 2 bobs worth in. LINK to the narration by Les Crane.
Greatly expanding output is a lot easier said than done. Many mines today, especially primary silver mines are teetering on the edge of their maximum ore processing capacities. With clearly evident declines in ore grades, the production abilities of mines will depend on new technologies and/or processing machinery to achieve production levels of previous years. [/QUOTE] Is that really all you took from the Vans analogy? Or are you deliberately skirting the point? Then you make the same comparison with bitcoin? WTF? [/QUOTE] No, I understood what you were saying and felt that you dismissed the point I made with your Vans analogy. History has shown us that in times of economic uncertainty, money flows into Gold and silver, as well as other "safe" asset classes. It's far from fantastical to think big money could flow into Both markets, especially as we near the end of this current Fiat monetary experiment. The connection to Bitcoin was only to show how a small market can be blown into a bubble. Bitcoin is at least seen as an asset class and an alternative store of wealth... Even if I think it's a massive Ponzi scheme and has only made it this far to be a prototype to the cashless monetary system we are heading towards. [/QUOTE] BS. I disagree, and explained why current supply can be so easily ramped up. Looks like you only need to open another 5 mines, according to your numbers? Mining supply can keep up by opening more mines, or digging more ore. But price needs to move first, and in the absence of that, then a supply deficit is but a mere fallacy. Price measures everything. I guess you didn't read my post, or don't want to see my point? [/QUOTE] I think you over-estimate the ability of mines around the globe to just ramp up production to meet excessive demand. As it was mentioned by another member, a Non-primary silver mine isn't likely to ramp up production for a metal that isn't their primary target, yet I could see that easily changing if the price was high enough relative to gold. One interesting point that I learnt from our conversation is the amount of silver that is sacrificed to process other metals. This is obvious in the ratio of silver to gold found in the ore grades relative to the final production ratios. The question this raises to me is: If silvers price reached a 1:10 ratio to gold, would that translate into higher final production ratios for mines simply because less silver would be lost or wasted to target/process other metals? I could see this as being a potential bubble popper in the 1:1 ratio hypothesis. The other major threat would be the scrap metal industry (as I mentioned previously). None-the-less, a 1:1 ratio environment would not be a natural price and wouldn't last long at all, but IMO still has a good chance of occuring. Even if production was ramped up and our malls were full of "We Buy Silver" shops, I can't see them filling a deficit of 2 billion Oz's. Further to this, Large companies like Sony, Samsung and Apple would likely increase their orders for silver 10 fold once they learn of a supply shortage. This would artificially increase demand in a very short period and in-turn affect the price significantly.
Essentially, this is the only point we disagree on - the ability to ramp up production if price makes it feasible. And after we each put our view forward, it is this issue that will ultimately determine the ratio outcome. Time will tell. In the meantime, I've laid my bets on gold for reasons already posted above. Looks like I also need more of whatever J Gault is taking. Good having a discussion with you. Cheers.
2020 will be a good year for silver and gold. Remember that the PTB will try to eventually rid us of cash; hard assets are always good to have. A few extra ounces of silver can never hurt; don't forget to keep an eye on platinum too. Many of the Platinum Platypus coins are still quite expensive to buy, the Perth Mint Australian Kangaroo Platinum coins might be the ticket for atleast a few ounces. IMO, platinum will bounce back sooner or later and as they say, it's un-loved atm. Sure, some are saying the end of catalytic converters and all that, but eventually Platinum will again smash gold prices longterm. Having said that, this thread is about silver so sorry for the digression. Silver is the ticket, it's still very cheap. H.
I've been very interested in pt since Sept 2018, but so far only a fun buy. Silver is no brainer. Pt is challenging to take the plunge because it looks like silver but at a much higher price and similar premium to silver. In value investment, to buy undervalued stuff, often, the fundamentals are against it. So, it is going against the crowd. Why is platinum so cheap? Because all the odds are against it. Falling catalytic converter demand and rising stock levels. Similarly so for silver, it is cheap because of falling demand from photography and stagnant industrial and investment demand. So, cheapness has a reason and being a contrarian is not easy. There's also the risk that what is cheap can become even cheaper. The competition for silver and gold is the stock market and bubble. The potential for silver is the monetary demand for it, which currently doesn't really exist and all of us in it are betting that this demand will appear in the future.
^ Platinum is yet another industrial metal that's going to be heavily affected by the coming crises. Industrial collapse will drag it down, just like silver. Gold is king right now
I'm thinking more about an industrial decline. Severe one. But the 2008 crisis also slammed the industrial use of Platinum, as it can be seen on this chart: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/infographics/platinum-industrial-use# The global industrial slowdown will impact the price for sure.
Thanks for the chart, interesting to see that Pt price is much higher in 2008 than today. And most of us investors in pt bought in around $800-$900 which is even lower than today's price. I’m also wary of this industrial slowdown thing so I’m cost averaging along the way but there are disadvantages to doing this in a rising market as it increases the average costs. There is the problem of having the will to buy when the downturn really comes. By then, there will be too many distractions like doom and gloom news on the media, the security of one’s job, family problems, partner lost his or her job or unhappiness, and as a result, the likelihood of not buying anything, or buying too little (like a fun buy) is very high. As in all downturns, the rebound will be very sharp and fast and by the time there is a will to buy, the price will be over $1000. The lowest pt will go to in a downturn is $600 probably for 1-2 weeks before the rebound and provided you can find physical platinum which I can guarantee not a lot can be found at that price. The dealers will be buying it for themselves or refuse to sell. All the above assumes there will be deflation. It could turnout to be inflationary instead and one would have totally missed out the opportunity, and in 10 years when pt is $10k-15k an ounce, one would look back and wonder at what one was thinking today by trying to save $200-$300 an ounce and then miss out gains of $10k an ounce.
