All is a bet, no need to get emotional over it. I’ve made losses of 80-99% on various stocks that I bought, they are worst than pm. Was it the fault of the stock? No, it’s because I made a wrong assessment. Will pm turn out to be a success or failure in 8 years? Time will tell but I think it can’t be worst than cash in the bank. At the most it will be a waste of time.
Time is the key here....for example if you bought at the following times and are still holding, your investment would be classed accordingly (inflation adjusted) - 1970........poor - 1980........absolutely horrendous - 1990......back to poor - 2000......good - 2010......fair - 2015......extremely good If you bought and held in 1980...well you will have to be looking at a gold price of approximately 6000 - 7000 clams to break even.
Using RBA data ( which is a bit on the low side ) then adjusting for exchange rate at the time. e.g 1970 Exchange rate $1.10, gold $35....au gold $32...inflation 11.50 times compared to 2018 equals $380-$400. In 50 years, multiplier is 5.5 times. House in Melbourne Average 1970 $12,800....inflation 11.5 equals $147,00 now $660,000, multiplier is 4.5. The difference is the house has returned nearly 50 years of rental return. 1980 if you bought at the peak...nothing more to say 1990 exchange rate $0.8, gold about $400....au gold $500....inflation 2 equals $1000. In 30 years, multiplier is just over 2. Melbourne house average 1990 $131,000..inflation 2 equal $262,000. Now $660,000.....multiplier is 2.5 before 30 years of rental return.
Sorry, I have re-evaluated the 1980 peak and it is probably closer to $3000-3500 in Aussie money today. $6000 - $7000 was my imaginary dramatic number.
Over 30 years it is still terrible compared to stocks or housing 8f you had bought in the 1980s peak your still well under water today
yer bad investment if you buy stupidly and when high, same could be said for anything including housing, if you bought housing last year in some cities at their peak you would be well over $100k+ behind not including the interest rates your paying for something well above current market price, then also if you bought a house with flammable cladding you would be well behind and be paying that off for along time in the future. if you bought at the right time your ahead, just like PM. You failing to look at sensible buying rewards vs stupid bad decision buying. you could point out examples with pretty much anything where people bought in at the wrong time take big loses and say its a bad investment, yet there are examples with many where people have been smart and made money likely on the same examples. Buy and sell at the wrong time is when its classed as a bad investment, Buy and sell at the right time its a good investment. Like anything, you just have to use your brains a bit more with PM. If you cant make money when gold goes up $300 an ounce in a few weeks, Or Silver goes up $6 in a few weeks then its you being a bad investor rather than PM being a bad investment. 80% of my stack was bought around $9-$10 an ounce, you cant tell me that is a bad investment?. And this isnt even near the amount I had when I sold a big lot at $38 an ounce in 2011. Ive only bought a couple of Kg's since then enough to prop my stack up a bit. I was a teen buying this stuff, used to buy a few ounces of silver when my pay check came in each week and did that for a few years, people said I was stupid doing that, PM is a bad investment they said. lol. I bought it as it looked cheap to me and it was. Glad I didnt listen to those people, I didnt buy a single ounce when Silver skyrocketed, Why? because it didnt look cheap any more, and that thankfully was the case. A bad investor can make a good investment look bad.
Your cherry picking over the long term housing has been a solid investment Silver has not. They were right you should have put your money else where instead of silver
Yes I did cherry pick, as you did with silver in your examples. Oh I have investments in other things as well, Silver was my first and my favorite, I paid for my house in full, and I have zero debt, I have not taken one single loan out in my life. Never paid a single cent of interest,1/4 of my house was actually paid from my silver investment in 2011. is that a good enough investment? for every $9-$10 it turned into $38, thats pretty good deal IMO. and still have some left which Ive used for savings. actually if you want a good bit of investment advice, dont buy into debt, use silver as a way to save and sell when it looking good. Best part about this all, I dont do what allot of so called pro investors do which is use debt to invest, so If there is a crash tomorrow, I wont lose a single thing, Infact Id likely be better off if there was a crash, might even snap up a cheap house from some fool who thought paying too much for a house while in lots of debt was a good investment. Just because you cant work it out doesn't mean its not a good investment.
Good investment, bad investment.........it is all sooooooooooo easy in hindsight. We sell when we are satisfied/unsure/fearful and buy when we are confident/unsure/fearful. Two opposite sides to a trade. Are we really that much in control of the future that we actually know what the future is? I have made some good investments and some total shit investments. At the time they all satisfied my criteria of good investment. It is too much to grandstand good fortune as it is to claim a higher intelligence for not investing in the first place. I like reading the contributions of those on this forum that take a chance on a metal/stock and sincerely wish them the best. I follow their stories with interest and I am very happy for them when they make a profit. I have an inclination to speculation like many others here ( SLV ) and if I make money then good luck to me. I reckon its about a 50/50 chance. The reality is we are all guessing. Only sometimes we can make a better educated guess but that is as close as it gets. P.S. who wants my tips for this years Melbourne Cup?
I'm usually skeptical about silverbug videos, but this report has some good points, assuming that the data presented is real. The report says that silver is mostly mined as a by product in Asia so an economic downturn or a reduction in demand for zinc, lead, can lead to a drop in silver supply. It's highly possible that silver demand remains elevated even in such a scenario because solar energy is actually economically viable as compared to electric vehicles which until now is not viable due to the high costs of batteries.
I just started the investing game so i'm a bit late and I bought last week when it was at its highest so I did take an L, but the maker of those above videos really did sell me on their points. Despite whatever noise on market manipulation the market always wins and the factors behind a silver rise are so strong in the general supply and demand area and macroeconomic factors. For me silver is a investment vehicle for me right now in this very bear territory market, gives me good liquidity to buy out things such as etfs which will be pennies on the dollar next downturn.
