Just noticing the AUD is appreciating against the USD, erroding gains in the PM complex again, but I'm wondering how high the RBA will let it go this time. We topped out at USD$1.10 previously in the last AUD run and we are currently at USD$1.064 (last I looked it was USD$1.04). Given all the manufacturers and other exporters complaining about the high value of the AUD, where do you think the AUD is headed? At this point, I reckon we will see a sell off once the RBA gets back from their Australia Day break tomorrow.
Not sure about a sell off tomorrow, however, it would not surprise me to see the A$ in the low US$0.90's by mid year.
If the USA keeps it's head above the financial quagmire, then we won't see the AUD drop much below parity, the devaluation of the USD is working in their favour and means they don't have to whinge incessantly about the yuan.
Perhaps. However, I do see China slowing down appreciably, which will affect our celebrated mining economy. And let's face it, our resources really are the only thing that is keeping our bottom lip above the waterline. That slows down - we are in a pickle, and our A$ corrects.
Yep. We'll be in one big big mess if China slows. It's frightening. Everything worth selling is sold. Australians will be lucky to be able to feed themselves.
A drop in minerals exports would see a corresponding drop in the AUD, but, unless the US raises interest rates, I still feel that it is unlikely that we will see low 90's. Where else is there to go for all the sovereign wealth funds, superrich and investment banks to park their cash? Barring China's slowdown, that gives us 2 years at parity, give or take 5-8%. How's that for a bold prediction :lol:
I think the AUD will go back to 65c in the coming Economic crash.Just my opinion. Be good for Gold in Aud. Thats why I'm here.
See opinions don't help. Now theories are a different matter The point is, it doesn't matter what the AUD is worth compared to the USD if there is an economic crash. If there is an economic crash it will result in the destruction of the USD and a realignment of the economic global powers, I believe China also walks a knife edge, mainly because it has 60 billion citizens and has a long long history of turmoil. If there is an economic crash, well let's hope our gold and silver and Water&Food stashes protect us. In the meantime, the AUD will not tank until the planned devaluation of the USD has run it's course and the US economy returns to a high consumption and forever rising house price based economy.
My 'theory' is that we will have a reasonable devaluation before the end of the year through either/or, or possibly both, two (2) following possible reasons. 1. China's slow down. 2. Competitive currency devaluation to align with the USA and the EU.
Let's call reasonable 92c or less. No to "1" unless the US raises interest rates, because the US is not attracting capital. Yes to "2" if our govt decides that if it's good enough for the Swiss or the Japs to do it, then it's good enough for us.
USA can't afford its current dollar. They need to devalue. Oz will be a lot better off if the AUD is around 90c. As Gerald Celente says 'currency wars'.
My theory is that ,in an Economic crash,our commodities(iron ore,etc) will not be bought,and they are all we have. Also the carry trade,where the rich gamble that the AUD will go up,will withdraw though fear and uncertainty. A major housing price crash would cause economic chaos in australia.Instead of having capital invested,people would have debt. An Economic collapse will mean the stock market crashes,no investment and no jobs, "The point is, it doesn't matter what the AUD is worth compared to the USD if there is an economic crash" What matters,to me,is what the price of gold is in AUD.And the POG in AUD ,in those circumstances,would rise considerably.Don't you think so? And an Economic collapse looks more and more likely to most people.It look inevitable to me. (but I'm often wrong)
The Chinese peg the Yuan. The US manipulate to push their dollar down. Our government....Well they've got bigger issues like gay marriage and poker machines. Russia is apparently about to buy the AU$...That's a whole lot of money coming our way. Housing will crash putting immense pressure on the economy that already seems to be on a knife's edge. We've sold way too much stuff. To fund socialism over the past 40 odd yrs in Australia everything worth selling has been sold...Now we don't own anything that generates income. 85% of mining is foreign owned. Not a typo. THAT'S 85%.....We've recently become a net importer of food while continuing to sell farms that are declining in yield by 7% a year (they'll therefore yield half what they currently do in ten years time).....WHILE DOUBLING our population. Our grand kids will be scratching around for food because of greed, socialism and dumb voters and dumb, self interested politicians. I haven't even mentioned foreign investment in residential real estate. Can anyone shock us with what our ridiculous successive governments have allowed to happen? So back to the topic. If the AU$ was our share price, how can it possibly stay so high when we don't own any of the stock on the shelves? As my Dad says, there is one option. The government can now tax the shit out of all this foreign owned stuff that falls under Australian law. I guess we can then continue doing what we do, service each other, consume a lot, and live the high life....Doesn't add up for me.................... Would that suggest that every new person in Australia we need to share our wealth with given we no longer actually produce income? What a mess. It's time that politicians were made accountable for the long term effects of the decisions they make. As it is going LNP will crush Labor and we'll have a majority LNP that will hurt us in all kinds of ways. We need smart politicians with the collective good of Australia as their focus.....Ain't going to happen....The mess continues.
Or, the AUD devalues against the USD because of a capital flight to the USD because it is a safe haven (for some reason only God knows). If that happens then gold will also devalue and any gains we make by having a cheaper $ will be lost :/
Your right, that factor would also come into play,but I think it would only reduce any gains.It wouldn't cause the loss of all gains. It would cause the AUD to devalue more than gold. In a major crisis golds just got to rise in itself(with respect to) all currencies,proportionally,offsetting this effect of USD dollar rise. We are in Australia,not US.I think this effect would be much larger there.Would think twice about Gold if I was in the US because of that effect. American commentaries can't necessarily apply here. I can see Gold going down in USD,and up in AUD.
Well here we are and the RBA is back at "work", yet the AUD is still sitting on US$1.06. Maybe Julia has been too pre-Occupied ( :lol: ) to get Mr Stevens on the phone this morning. I can see that conversation going something like this . . . JG: Glenn Stevens? Listen, we've got to get all those people back into the workforce, it's getting so I can't even have a cushy lunch with Tony without being protested. GS: But I thought you wanted all the people on welfare so you could just clip the coupons from the mining exports. JG: You've got to move with the times Glenn and we've got to get those protestors back to work with jobs. GS: No problem Jules, I'll just start knocking points off the AUD and that'll stimulate the export industries. If you put some trade tarrifs up against imports that use slave labour to level the playing field for Australian manufacturers, then we'll be back to full employment with a robust manufacturing base in no time. JG: Don't tell me what to do you pleb! Just get me a cheaper dollar!! GS: No. This is how it works Julia. You play nicely and we leave you alone. If you play nasty, I run the economy and your re-election chances into the ground. JG: Oh . . . errrr . . . yes, Sir, I'm sorry Mr. Stevens, Sir. What would you like me to do again?
