Time for stackers to review the lessons of 2011.

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Shaddam IV, Jul 24, 2020.

  1. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Good point Mongrelmaple, it’s a very good idea indeed to set a maximum buy price that you decide to stop purchasing at during a sharp price run up.
     
  2. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Agree!
     
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  3. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    Kinda implies the money printers have an exit strategy! I'd be cautious myself at this point. If I need currency sure otherwise who knows where this will end. Not me certainly.
     
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  4. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    I'd definitely sell all my silver at AU$40. Not so sure about $3k gold, that's not much over 10% above where we are now. And gold is, well, gold. i.e. I could live without owning any silver, but not sure I could live without having at least a decent amount of gold in my portfolio.
     
  5. slavaja

    slavaja Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I would start offloading some silver at $40. Silver is known outperform gold but also known to disappoint long term holders
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2020
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  6. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Point taken, but the cash would be used to buy other hard assets or buy back into PMs at a later date.
     
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  7. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Buying opportunity 20 March 10:33am, Metal was available.
    23 July - people are in shock, what to do next?

    upload_2020-7-27_11-49-18.png
     
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  8. Jason1

    Jason1 Well-Known Member

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    thats always been the way I treat it.
    and worst case scenario you walk away with a profit.
    Its also good not to put all your eggs in one basket, for those who use silver purchases as a savings method, if they cash in at the right time and in profit, they can use some of it or even all of it to invest in other forms they likely couldn't before as they didnt have the saving todo so.
    doesn't really matter if it continues up after you sell, as long as you sell at a profit and get well ahead you have done good.
    walk away with the cash and come back when things settle down, weather it be 6 months or a year or so.

    avoid FOMO at all costs

    PS, I have a 500 gram bar sitting in my stack I likely wont sell, It cost the guy $50 an ounce from ABC new back in the day, I bought it off him last year for $19 an ounce.
    When I went down to pick it up he told the story of how he raced down to ABC to buy it as well as a few kg's as he was told silver was going insane and he would miss out if he didnt.
    I keep that bar right at the top of my SDB as constant reminder and deterrent against the temptation for buying high.
    silver is a great investment but you can lose your arse if you play it wrong.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2020
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  9. Slimey

    Slimey Well-Known Member

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    ok....the gold price movement had been moving on a time span of about 3 times the 70's boom. A year ago it switched to 1 to 1 from my rough calculation. If it holds, gold will be about $2400 by early November with a nasty pullback to $1950 in rapid time. This is my prediction.
     
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  10. rainy day

    rainy day Member

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    I watch all these guys analyzing charts on you tube. They are missing the point. The world has abused the privilege of a paper promise, for gold or silver.
    A man's labour for a day was 1/10 th of an ounce of silver. The paper party is over, that is the only thing to see I believe.

    It's funny, I was at a shopping centre, in come the goons to empty the ATM machines. I used to think of it as money, now all I see is a couple of guys with a dream of money in their heads, and a load of worthless paper going into a armoured truck. Anyone else see that?

    Bitcoin just means bit(computer) coin(money). Childish.

    Crypto in not money, because it is not durable or limited in supply.

    Durable - able to withstand pressure or damage. How can something be durable if it does not physically exist? You can't argue that it is therefore immune from damage, because, it does not exist. That is absurd. That is like saying "my dreams are durable". Or you could argue that it is durable because it is in a cloud, and you can access it from any computer. But what if computers go away? Or bitcoin is banned. At least you could hide gold in the forest under a toadstool by the river. If the government comes, that is pressure.

    Limited - restricted in size, amount, or extent; few, small, or short. Bitcoin may be limited within itself, but there can be unlimited other crypto's.


    Anyway, whatever.
     
  11. Lunardragon

    Lunardragon Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Here we are finally after 9 years that silver finally above $32....what a journey from dragon s2 release to mouse s3 hahaha
     
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  12. Slam

    Slam Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi guys, We were there 10 years ago.

    Is this it now, this time finally...

    Hold on tight...
     
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  13. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    $100 dragon back then, what was the cheapest S3 mouse?
     
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  14. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You can see the selling pressure coming just ahead from what's being listed in the trading section.
    I don't know what spot will be minus premiums but it looks like $40 bars and $45 bullion coins will offer decent resistance.
     
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  15. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Excellent thread.

    The above from Sammysilver is worth remembering. Also the perspectives on percentage of metals held against your net worth put forth by nonrecourse and Shiney.

    Personally I'm leaving silver in favour of gold, based more on 1970-80 activity than 2011. This may turn out to be an error, but gold makes sense to me, whilst silver is too much commodity and a gamble for me now.

    I don't see silver reaching its predicted heights because of its industrial utility. Maybe $50 silver is affordable, but $300 silver kills it in industry, and I suspect that is why JP Morgan has cornered the market.

    A parasite does better if it doesn't kill the host. JPM needs stable government and operating industry, hence it's silver manipulation and skullduggery.

    Gold is, to my mind, a perfect saving and protection plan. Whether gold heads to 3k or 5k, it's relativity is what matters to me, and the lesson of 2011 supports that.

    The bulls are excited at gold potentials, and the challenge is to ignore that sentiment and emotion and keep your eye on the collapsing USD and AUD. Inflation fears push me straight towards gold.

    My advice is grab it while you can. When we finally come out of lockdown next year, and see the destruction wrought by businesses collapsing and government money printing, the people without debt and holding gold will be the lucky ones.

    For me it's all about "sleep at night factor", the importance of which I learned in 2011:

    Golden Slumbers indeed! ;)
     
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  16. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ Silver all the way for me. Triple digit silver coming this year. :)
     
  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    In your position no debt is probably a wise move.

    But it should be remembered that there is an alternative scenario. That all money printing will do is destroy the value of our dollar. But this has been going on for decades and in the meantime assets and markets have climbed in value. It's quite possible that the money printing will have the opposite effect on the economy and build strength, if managed well. So debt , exposure to asset classes that may benefit from that policy move and hedging with assets that have the potential to retain the PPP of the dollar may be a wiser move for most.

    In the end, there is absolutely no point in holding a position in PMs if you're not going to cash it out for fiat currency and buy in to another class. And in the meantime there is the opportunity cost of holding PMs to consider.
     
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  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If the government's fiscal policy is rolled out, it's worth keeping in mind the following:

    Screen Shot 2020-07-28 at 9.07.06 am.png

    Screen Shot 2020-07-28 at 9.09.13 am.png

    And probably regardless of whether it's rolled out effectively or not:

    Screen Shot 2020-07-28 at 9.19.17 am.png

    And because absolutely no one should ignore the alternative currency and the potential it has to disrupt the political and financial systems:

    Screen Shot 2020-07-28 at 9.14.40 am.png

    Raoul Pal's advice over 12 months ago was gold, BTC, bonds and diamonds. The first two are so simple, everyone should be doing it.
     
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  19. Jislizard

    Jislizard Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I was buying silver below spot from ebay when it was around AU$15/toz. Got the majority of my stack then. Fortunately didn't buy much during the rush in 2011, even though I hadn't reached my stacking goals, I just couldn't bear to pay such inflated prices. The only thing I bought were some RAM Kangaroos which were $50 before the spike and $50 at the top of the spike so I get to say I bought Roos at spot! They are now about $40 maybe.

    It was getting hard to buy from eBay, everything was getting snapped up, lots of bidders and premiums well above acceptable, particulalry for the 50% junk that I was looking for at the time. I went to a different auction site that was mostly for gems, won a lot of junk 50%s but the price was going up so quickly that by the time the auction had run its course and the payment had been processed spot had gone up a couple of dollars and the seller "lost" the coins and refunded my money. Fortunately he managed to find them and relist them the same day.

    I remembered there were queues outside bullion dealers and you could order silver but it wouldn't be delivered for three months.

    It really was a mania!

    Everyone said silver was going to be hitting $100 but I didn't want to be greedy and figured I would sell half my stack at $50, I still have it.

    I remember one forum member here sold out in the early $40s when silver was still rising and he was derided for having weak hands, I would love to know why he jumped ship when he did, perfect timing.

    I was completely unprepared to sell last time. I didn't have any strategy as I was a long time buyer and not a seller. By the time I worked out how to put up a listing on eBay the tide had turned.

    This time I will not wait until it hits an arbitrary number I pulled out of the air. At AU$35 I could easily sell off some of my stack and make a decent profit without worrying that I sold it all too soon or left it too late like last time.

    I think that by selling bits in increments I will not have to worry about predicting the market.

    Once I sell, the money will go into paying off some debts I am about to incur. I don't think I will try to buy back into Silver when the prices drop. I have enough silver and I doubt I will sell it all anyway. plus I have some in the SMSF so I will never be entirely out, even if I do get around to selling most of it into this spike.
     
  20. Slam

    Slam Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I agree. I think the difference this time around is how much stock is there at the dealers. How easily is it to buy back in when the opportunity comes.

    Personally if you don't need the cash and have no where to put it, why would you be selling. I would consider trading silver/gold against other silver/gold to clean up the stack abit. Maybe sell coins for bars etc. Keep the core stack intact, give it a few years and see how the world economy develops.

    This is my view, if I had held it for 10 years and its only doubled in price, why would you sell now? what exactly will you buy that is less risky and will make you more profits. I have said it 10 years ago, if you don't see a currency collapse the game is still on. Continue to make that dirty fiat by working, while saving your stack and passing it on (remind you kids / children why and when to sell in the future).

    This is my opinion, feel free to ignore. This is a long term game. Selling out now for tiny profits isn't what I'd risk for all that upside. If bitcoin shows you how crazy a market can become, why can't it be physical when the paper game collapses. 90% of oil traders got burnt in April when it went negative. This shows you how much speculation there is in the market which is completely detached from reality, the real physical underlying asset. Is this the time that people really wake up and want physical above all else? I don't know but I'm not going to risk selling and buying back in when stock isn't readily available.

    Unless you need the dirty fiat because of financial circumstances, I don't know why you would be selling when it appears its like end game soon. Watch the US and China closely, whether there would be a real war or a financial war of sanctions. Or even China coming out and disrupting the world with a gold back RMB. Who knows. All I know is this time around we are definitely in unchartered waters globally with the situation developing every day. Its not normal compared to 2011, the FEDs held it together in 2011 because it was just a financial implosion after the GFC. This time the whole world is affected by this virus and all central governments can do is print and loan it to governments to prop up economies.
     

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