Time for stackers to review the lessons of 2011.

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Shaddam IV, Jul 24, 2020.

  1. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I am sure that the long term members from the old forum remember the days when silver and gold made their epic runup and the Silverstackers forum was flooded with excitement and new members signing up by the busload. For a while both metals climbed and climbed, silver making big gains on a daily basis and the forum was filled with lively discussion about where it was all headed. Members held all kinds of viewpoints, for example:

    "This is the big one that we have been waiting for, Gold is going to the moon and taking silver with it, if you don't buy in now you will regret it, it will just keep climbing and you will miss out".

    "Gold is cool but silver has far more upside".

    "The Gold-Silver ratio is badly out of whack, it has to correct soon and silver is badly undervalued. Buy now while you can".

    "This is a good time to sell during the buying mania, if you already hold silver that you bought at low prices don't try and call the top, sell now and take profit".

    "Panic buying silver now at these prices is a bad idea, it has gotten too expensive too quickly, it will correct and you will be sorry".

    "Demand will exceed production, silver is more rare than gold and soon you won't be able to buy physical at any price".

    "The "paper silver and gold" scam has to collapse soon, physical is the only sane choice".

    "These high prices are the new normal".

    And of course the phrases "Back up the truck" and "boating accident" were all over various threads.

    There were bets made, very lively discussions about whether to sell and take profit or whether to stay on the rocket ride to the moon, whether to hold, whether to buy low premium bars to get the maximum number of ounces versus buying PM Lunars for the collectors premium in the future or whether to buy Eagles or Philharmonics or Maples or other more common coins. Ten ounce "Stacker bars" were a real craze for a while too. It was a lot of fun to be into silver. Stackers seemed to live in one of several camps:

    Hold and never sell, in it for the long run waiting for the coming economic crash.

    Collectors and hobbyists who buy silver for the fun and enjoyment of collecting.

    Those who were level headed investors looking to buy low and sell high.

    Those who jumped in hoping for a quick profit but who had no real idea of what was happening.

    And there were also two other camps - Those who already had a decent stack and had nothing to lose because they didn't need to chase the rising prices to increase their stack and those who chose a climbing price to try and build their first stack.

    To the long term members here I ask the question: "What did we learn and what will you do differently now if the same thing happens again and the price climbs dramatically?
     
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  2. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Buy and sell on a rising market but keep your core stack to yourself. Also sell all metal that is not part of your core stack and replace it with core stack metal.
    This way you should come out of this with more metal and cash.
     
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  3. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Sammy where do you stand on the question of selling numismatics and replacing them with low premium bars?
     
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  4. Revils

    Revils Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    "Also sell all metal that is not part of your core stack and replace it with core stack metal."
    This is what I'm doing at the moment, I move a lot, so am replacing all (most) my coins, things with packaging etc. with my core stack (10oz, 20oz, kg and 50oz Perth Mint) - though I still get distracted and buy the 'premium'/older bars instead of cheapest available.
     
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  5. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    "To the long term members here I ask the question: "What did we learn and what will you do differently now if the same thing happens again and the price climbs dramatically?"

    These times are very different.
    Last time we had lack of supply and big premiums.

    This time we have lack of supply and disruption of the supply chain, both locally and internationally.
    For Australian folk, most are un-aware that the coins they want are mostly going overseas,
    the Australian coin market has low allocations for not only collectors, but also flippers and dealers.

    The problem we could see, "not in Australia so much" but the international scene, where
    miners require fly-in, fly-out and the supply of important mining components will / is
    subject to logistical problems caused by the virus.

    We keep getting told that supply / raw material is not a problem and to some degree
    I believe this to be so, because like many folk here, we realise that the miners are young,
    they are not as affected as those 80 and 90 year-old miners (sarcasm).
    Having said that, first world countries could put restrictions in place that close-down / put mines on care and maintenance but this won't happen in many of the main producers. As already said, logistics is a problem, a really big problem. Mines are maintenance
    and equipment intensive, it doesn't take much to put a spanner in the works.

    Off track a bit, so lets get back to coins and bars.
    If you buy bars, you rely totally on the price of spot.
    If you buy the same bar (metal weight) in a coin, you have the "chance" of numismatic gain.


    Edit - Crikey more typos.
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2020
  6. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I sold all my numis yonks ago and replaced them with bullion. I'm starting to believe that the Southern Cross 5oz bar is now my best bullion bar as it is still under $200 and easily flippable. 10oz bars at $370 are no longer as attractive.

    However, others who I have advised to flip their numis are still obsessed with the thought that the premiums will go up at the same percentage as spot and are waiting for their pound of flesh. More blood from a stone in my opinion, but we all stack for different reasons.

    Should silver hit $40 and gold $3,000 Aussie, I will sell everything that is not nailed down and buy in at the next major dip. I'm even wondering if there will be a US Friday night smackdown this weekend. I have sold all my surplus gold and silver just in case.
     
  7. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This spike up and premiums on bars make me a coin buyer again
     
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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    When your non-stacking mates have conversations on the golf course about silver or gold, it’s time to take profits.
     
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  9. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think it's important to have an exit strategy ahead of the curve to give you time to exercise it. It's no good selling on a major dip thinking that you're being proactive.
     
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  10. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    I'm mostly watching from the sidelines and still buying some. I picked up a bar and 2 rounds today and they were $26 usd per ounce. Hence why I only got 3 ounces but still good to sock a few bucks away when I can.
    Ive never paid that much but i have faith. Good thing i only had $100 on me haha.

    The 20s dont scare me and my lcs usually hooks me up for spot anyway. This was a different shop I occasionally hit on the way home from out west and hes a little higher priced.

    3 ounces isnt much but better than a poke in the eye.
    My lcs is on the other side of the continental divide.
     
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  11. Jason1

    Jason1 Well-Known Member

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    definitely use the prices to dump the premium stuff, hold the cash for times when prices are better and more suitable for buying, and replace with low premium bars and so on.
    its hard selling bulk lot of high premium quickly especially if they are of different value. its a pain in the arse
    Its so handy having a few thousand ounces of generics all of the same value. can offload quicker when prices are way way up.
    plus you end up with more silver for the same money, over all works out better for you
    Thats been my strategy since 2011, only stuff i had left after my big selloff during that period was the high premium stuff as I couldnt offload it quick enough before prices dropped.
    I spend a a few years selling single premium collector coins and replacing with bars. I cant stress enough how much of a pain in the arse it is trying to get the best price you can for hundreds of pretty coins all worth different premiums.
     
  12. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    And, just one more thing.
    There's the shock value at the moment.
    Collectors and Stackers are following prices, hoping the price will drop.
    Others are a bit bewildered, it will take them time to adjust to the new price of metal.
    Some have been saying, they won't pay the premiums, that's fine and ok, especially if you already have metal.
    Sure, we could see a huge drop in the stock-market and that will provide a buying opportunity
    as gold and silver temporarily get dragged down but as I see it, we, in Australia have to watch the AUD against the USD.
    Take into consideration what happens to metal prices on a rising AUD.
    If you think the US economy will tank (I do) the USD could soften markedly especially during their late winter.
    So, a stronger Australia dollar is going to give us more purchasing power for metal but if the AUD tanks, metal in
    Australian dollars is going to be expensive.

    I think we need to refresh sometimes and realise the USD highs for gold will probably be surpassed (They have)
    but the price could go much higher and of course silver is quite cheap when viewed in USD at $22.65 and has a long way to go
    before it reaches highs.
    [​IMG]

    So, again, perhaps keep an eye on the exchange rates.

    COVID in the Northern Hemisphere during December 2020 - January 2021 could cause big problems.
    Having some metal, gold, silver, platinum, diversified into so called bullion coins that "may" acquire some
    numismatic gain, plus some bars, plus some cash, plus a house you own is probably the ticket.
     
  13. Karoi

    Karoi Active Member

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    I agree with keeping an eye on the exchange rates, although, with the potential for major changes/devaluations to fiat currencies ahead, maybe us stackers should also track the value of our metals against other indicators such as property and the DJI?
     
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  14. tongkat

    tongkat Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Social media is full of newcomers quoting the pump and dump gurus. Time to take profits and wait with the cash.
     
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  15. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Good thread topic!
     
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  16. JS1880

    JS1880 Active Member

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    I think its a good time to sell the nusmatics which demand a higher premium and reinvest that premium in your stack by way of bars or even unallocated PMs to gain more weight to your stack. I have been doing this recently and it certainly makes a difference and more weight to your stack can never be a bad thing, can it ?
     
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  17. Revils

    Revils Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Also on the other side of the coin, good time to pick up some of the numismatics that are hard to get from the diamond hands now offloading them.
     
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  18. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The think that I like about Perth Mint Lunars is that they haven't been copied, particularly the older series 2 and the series 1 so when it comes time to sell them a buyer is unlikely to feel that there is a risk of it being fake. If silver climbs into the 40's and beyond I think that there will be fake bars from one end go Ebay to the other. The likelihood of forged 2 oz and 5 oz Lunars seems remote, there are more likely targets for Chinese fake factories.
     
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  19. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    A beautiful patina seals the deal for me and I prefer slightly circulated.
    Uncirculated stuff has no character and sealing in plastic to never be touched is probably a sin in the bible somewhere.

    Maybe not a real sin but that person needs a stern talking to by a mean nun.
     
  20. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    A critical point. Thank you. Exit strategy is everything at a time of rising prices.

    So Sammy is calling AUD $40.00 silver and AUD $3000.00 gold as his trigger points to sell, Anyone else want to call theirs?
     
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