Apology not necessary. Just be aware of the usual persuasive BS permabull rhetoric that constantly tries to mislead the gullible that COMEX is on the brink due to alleged physical claim ratios.
the 2001 stock market crash occurred on Sep 17, the first trading day after 9/11. the 2008 stock market crash occurred on Sep 29, after the US house of Reps rejected a bank bailout plan. how can a nobody like me predict the precise trigger event? i cannot. but there are thousands of small pieces which all add up to show the bigger picture of the REAL state of things, and it is really bad, which is waiting for that one final trigger event. some of those pieces are detailed below in answer to the second part. re: 6 months and fed raising rates background: the baltic dry index (international shipping) has fallen through the floor. they say (USA) that housing is doing great but lumber prices have crashed. the say GDP has grown but fuel consumption in trucking (USA) has fallen 11% since 2008. PE ratios are up and above typical bubble territory levels. etc. i won't go on. so much of the data is inconsistent with other data they put out. i.e.: it's a big lie. the entire system is held up only with confidence, and when people realise that, boom. why 6 months? most insiders have caught on, commercials are liquidating whatever stocks they can, and more and more nobody's like me have figured it out. the tipping point is near IMO. the US fed raising rates may well be the trigger, even though the true state of the economy doesn't warrant a rate rise. they know a crash is inevitable and they may well pull the trigger themselves and do a controlled demolition. they already have military assets scattered throughout the country and pre-drills (jade helm) to prepare for any civil unrest that may occur. (ask yourself why they need to deploy so much military hardware domestically right around sep/oct. i have learnt to identify that everything is done by the same elite criminal scum and is all connected.) and of course massive buying go gold by central banks, even western ones. now why would bankers want this useless pet rock when they're telling us how barbaric it is? because it is one of the few things that hold value in times of crisis. and it's a doozy coming. add to all this that many nations are dumping USD like the plague. washington's hegemony in the world is coming to and end. the fake enemies of china, russia, BRICS etc will ensure that. yes this is linked to the upcoming crisis too because it is a serious dent in their financial control, pillaging and warmongering. (note: i do not blame the citizens of the USA, only the criminals controlling washington).
If the shorts fail to deliver, Comex is not obliged to deliver physical. FAILURE TO DELIVER In the event a clearing member fails to fulfill its specific delivery obligations pursuant to Exchange Rules, the sole obligation of the Clearing House is to pay reasonable damages proximately caused by such delivery obligation failure, in an amount which shall not exceed the difference between the delivery price of the specific commodity and the reasonable market price of such commodity at the time delivery is required according to the Rules of the Exchange. The Clearing House shall not be obligated to: (1) make or accept delivery of the actual commodity; So, your statement "pony up $$$ -->> will receive" does not have to necessarily happen. Shorts can fail to deliver physical and still there would be no default by the exchange. I agree that this situation it's quite difficult to materialize today because there are limits to the total number of contracts that can be hold by a single entity (thanks to the Hunt Brothers), but in theory it's possible.
I can see the situation by myself, don't worry. I was just wondering why the six months period since I bthink that the can could be kicked for much much longer.
Yep, I don't believe that, no worries. Comex is not obliged to deliver physical anyway, so the story that they have to buy from the open market the missing amount of metals in order to deliver thus making the spot skyrocket is clearly BS.
I guess you get your info from internet PM gurus. Name one time there has been a failure to deliver without a force majeure declared. You can't, because it has simply NEVER happened. Your "in theory" theory might be correct, but it has never happened. I know folks who have bought PM's via comex contracts and there was no problem, although it can be a tedious process via the brokers, etc. A short cannot simply say, "I can't get the silver, I guess we settle in cash". That is pure BS. I used to trade futures. Jim
That is a nice list and straightforward thought process for what may occur in the 6 month time frame. I cannot really find fault in any of it. I really hope we have more time than that though, may be fall of next year or the one after. Pretty much everything that has caused the last financial crisis has been magnified and not fixed at all. Frank/Dodd?, give me a break. I will keep thinking about skittles and unicorn farts and hope this whole thing blows over so i can continue watching reruns of dancing with the stars!
I remember may 2011. After the $50 > $32 price drop, I ordered some more silver. The dealer had a "News" that informed that ASE were undeliverable until further notice. He also had a "News" that Maple delivery time was 6-8 weeks (normally 2-3). Everywhere hints of shortages and long delivery times and higher premiums. The price is now $15.
The info that the Comex is not obliged to deliver metal in case of failure to deliver by a short comes directly from them: http://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/NYMEX/1/7.pdf#page=17 Check sections 714 and 715. Sure, buy regulation a short cannot just say I won't deliver and walk away... Until it's not able to do so. In that case Comex will step in and sort out the situation on behalf but it's not obliged to deliver metal and can settle in cash both out defaulting.
Porcello, In my opinion, your posts show a complete state of ignorance with respect to Comex, or in the alternative, you are simply trolling on this issue. I never said Comex has to deliver silver. Comex is the marketplace if you will. The person on the other end of the contract (the short) is on the hook to deliver. If it EVER EVER EVER happens a short fails to deliver and a "default" takes place, there will be NEWS of this ALL OVER THE PLACE. So far, it hasn't happened. Please, show me ONE G DAMN TIME without force majeure where a short got off the hook without the consent of the long (the buyer). You can evade my questions all you want and dance around them. I don't really care. But you are wrong. Jim
Comex is like a casino, pay your money and take your chances, if you lose its your own fault for playing. If you don't hold it you don't own it, thats all you need to know.
I give up. The earth is flat. Defaults are secret. etc etc. At least give a link that backs your propositions. But I guess you can't because it is not true. Jim
"AUGUST 3/CHINESE DEMAND FOR LAST REPORTING WEEK: 73 TONNES/HUGE DEMAND FOR GOLD FROM INDIA AT 155 TONNES OVER LAST TWO MONTHS/PUERTO RICO DEFAULTS/" http://harveyorganblog.com/2015/08/...nes-over-last-two-monthspuerto-rico-defaults/
For the record, I do believe there is a good chance we could actually see a real "default" on Comex if the price of silver drops too low. But that has not happened yet. People/institutions do buy gold and silver via Comex contracts in each "delivery" month (some more than others). These numbers are made public. If you do a google search for "Comex default", you will see several pages lined with articles from the pro PM sites, where they have been predicting a Comex default in gold and silver since 2008. You will see that none ever mention that a default actually happened. With so many pro PM blogs wishing for this, you can bet if it happened (especially if it happened frequently) there would be proof out there. Jim
Those that buy the positions don't want something else than cash delivery. COMEX isn't even asked for.
