This article helps us understand the reasons for shortages, and high premiums: FTA - "... This betrays a fundamental reality about the market for physical gold and silver bullion that many investors even regular buyers of bullion are not aware of. - There simply is not much supply available at any given time. In other words, gold and silver products spend very little time sitting on the shelf waiting to get bought, making inventory very tight..." http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/reality-available-gold-silver-bullion
Either one group of people will be spectacularly wrong, or another group will. The price of failure is high.
Or something will happen that will make both positions irrelevant. Hopefully it will be a very good thing and not a tragic thing.
the real shortage will come when stock markets around the world collapse (very soon) and those with any paper/digital currency left will scramble to buy up any available PMs.
17 posts Please do not take offense, but i will come back and ask you in 6 months if you have a different view. My money is on yes.
Well metal futures are about buying up supply before it has been produced right? 3 months after issue all futures mature and the person holding the paper redeems it for metal. I am guessing that the mints are fairly large buyers of futures to obtain the new metal? Or do they get supply from other sources? Either way they need the raw metals to create their products so shouldn't this demand impact on the futures market putting an upward pressure on price? Or are the mints on a small fish in the industrial precious metal commodities arena?
oh, so 17 posts means i delved into PMs just a few days ago. okay, if you say so. i wouldn't use the number of posts as an accurate measure of knowledge, credibility or honesty. that should be obvious with a few "respected" members here. btw, i think you misunderstood what i said. i did not say there is no shortage now. i believe there is and it is covered up by the govts/media/disinfo people (eg: ASE july sales). but it is still available now if you want it. what i said is that the REAL shortage will come after all stock markets collapse - ie: difficult or impossible to get. that's when everyone will see.
Nope. Futures are only a way to speculate on commodity prices. Taking delivery is pretty much impossible since there are now, for instance, around 120 claims for each physical ounce of gold in Comex. None of the big players in precious metal futures ever asks for delivery, they are just after the fiat profits, although in theory they could do it. If small players asks for delivery they get only the finger plus the fiat equivalent. And yes, mints are small fish since around 20% of metals goes into bullion coin/bars for retail investors. Also, I don't think that mints work too much with futures. I believe that they loan metal from bullion banks or use the allocated metal inventory from customers as their working inventory. As soon as they receive metals they process them and sell them immediately so they are not much worried about spot price variations and just make their profit through the minting premium.
If every stacker on the whole wide world could not get phys it would mean jack... If a tech manufacturer cannot get phys it will be end game, until then there is no shortage
No they wont. They will be liquidating PM's to free up cash for margin calls. Prices will decline before they increase.
Sorry , but when i see a new member an they are trying to tell us that the stock markets are due to pop soon then i know where they have most likely come from. Where? The latest installment from King World News or Mike Maloney news letter. Lets just see where you stand in 6 months time, after the US Mint has had another couple of shortages or "the manipulators" push prices down another buck or two. I told you not to take offense, but i have seen MANY MANY MANY MANY MANY similar comments from people and when they have been around for a bit they soon realize that KWN and youtube silver shills are all WRONG..............................And just out to fleece you. If you are still of the same beliefs in 6 months i shall apologize and send you <i'm sorry florin>
Wrong. Futures are NOT "only a way to speculate on commodity prices". Futures are not "claims on physical".
We need to change the definition in investopedia, then: DEFINITION of 'Futures' A financial contract obligating the buyer to purchase an asset (or the seller to sell an asset), such as a physical commodity or a financial instrument, at a predetermined future date and price. Futures contracts detail the quality and quantity of the underlying asset; they are standardized to facilitate trading on a futures exchange. Some futures contracts may call for physical delivery of the asset, while others are settled in cash. My sentence was also obviously incorrect, sorry for that, not ALL the futures are only a way to speculate. Are futures in gold/silver not a claim on underlying physical (to offload or to acquire) that is usually settled in cash instead of transfer of physical?
Robert Kiyosaki predicts Lehman Brothers and even says it will be bailed out not bankrupt but finally it was bankrupted cant be even saved like AIG... Guy on this video asks him if he was concerned about Lehman Bros and Robert without any hesitation says yes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OtwmKPYyBg I always think everyone has a right to receive respect regardless of their age or status. Learning does not stop after uni or after certain age, I am open to new ideas and suggestions. Number of posts does not justify persons knowledge as everyone is free to shape their ideas about PM markets. Also I am open to anyone telling me if I sell all my silver today because it will be dropping to AUD15oz in one month and will stay there for 2 months and will raise to AUD22 again in a week? Anyone? If anyone thinks because they have 10K post they know just enough to tell me when to sell and buy"" I will listen to them", if someone out there really think they know exact times they would not bother wasting time on any forum in my opinion.
i get what you're saying re: KWN but not everyone is from there or at that basic "panic" level. some have done their due diligence and look at metals for the right reasons (let's not get into that now). i'm not offended. while i do believe it is likely that a SHTF financial event will occur well within 6 months, you never know how long it can be delayed. i also think metals prices will likely stay depressed for longer than that. both of those work very well for me so i won't complain. i can already tell you in advance that in 6 months i will have the same belief regardless of what happens. all bubbles will pop, especially those which are artificially inflated and indefinitely supported with fudged figures. (let's not get into that now either). i have to concede that "the manipulators" are good at what they do and may continue successfully for some time. but they cannot continue forever.
What do you expect to be the triggering event, and why whitin 6 months? Are you thinking about the FED raising US$ interest rates?
So much misinformation in this thread I don't know where to start. If someone wants to go long (buy a Comex contract) AND take delivery of the underlying commodity (let's say gold or silver), all they have to do is pony up the appropriate amount of $$$ at the right time and they WILL receive their gold or silver. Whenever I read that longs are being forced to settle in "fiat" I say BS. The day that happens (because there is no gold or silver to deliver), you will hear on all the financial networks that there has been a "default" or failure to deliver. Except for very unusual circumstances where a force majeure is declared, there has not been any defaults to deliver on Comex. When, and if that day comes, it will be game over for PM manipulation via the Comex. Therefore, they won't let that happen. If I am wrong, someone post a link here showing an outright failure to deliver in gold or silver on the Comex in the past, say 20 years. I am betting you won't find any. Jim
Not a claim. Investopedia definition does not imply a 'claim' either. Futures are merely a contract to buy or sell at a predetermined price and date. This contract is reversible, and in no way constitutes a claim of ownership - rather, it is somewhat analogous to a deposit or down-payment. Ownership (or claim) is only transferred if delivery is exercised and settled - which then becomes a purchase.
There are no shortages, that bull. Ok, so the exact thing you want might be out of stock occasionally, but it's almost certain that someone has it at any given time. And you can go to any online dealer and they have countless things in stock they can ship, the array of stuff available is bewildering.
