I have a theory that the premiums on seminumi bullion coins will be trending down as the mints flood the market with more and more crap "collector" coins and low quality bullion coins which will have the effect of lowering the price expectations of buyers on resale. Does anyone see this starting to happen already?
That's been happening for 20 years The premiums ebb and flow as collector tastes and interests in different series change over time
My mindset used to be that I was happy that mints like the RCM continued to put out 200 junk coins per annum, that way the 1-2 which I purchased per year would be of even more value as the numerator of actual nice coins available remained low, whilst the denominator of total junk plus nice coins continued to increase ...not so certain anymore that is how the story will unfold... My present hope is that the price of silver rises appreciably such that there is a great culling leading to the majority of those garbage/ junk/ coloured coins being relegated forever to the melt pile, never to be re-cast again!!
I think timing is one important factor in what premiums one will pay or receive (when selling). But it's certainly not the only factor. What I have always been doing since I started buying silver 3 1/2 years ago as my part to try to reduce the possibility that semi-numi premiums in general do not head downward as a result of the flood of crap products on the market is to not buy what I see as crap. Unfortunately, what I see as crap is not necessarily shared by the rest of the collector / stacker community. So I'm not sure how much disincentive it is for me not buying what I see as crap. I suppose ultimately the market (those buying and selling) determines premiums as I suppose is normal. .
I totally agree with the OP here , and i have observed the same thing. It seems that literally everyday there is several new release crap gimmick coins or medals coming out , high relief , antique finish, colored, scented, odd shape on and on and on blah blah... it seems if some new idea of a coin becomes popular every small, large and in between mint and company has to jump on the bandwagon trying to make a buck , hype it pump and dump , change price accordingly to created demand ect. And what do you get for for your 1000% premium ? a lovely box and packaging to go with it. I personally have stayed away from this junk for a long time and see it for the most part as a sure way to lose money , unless you are just a collector and just happen to like a certain coin or medal and have money to burn. I see it as getting worse as the market gets more and more diluted with this crap.
Death by a thousand cuts? Wouldnt it be just as likely if not more likely that the "collectors" as is such with coins in general and stamps have an ever increasing median age and other hobbies to vie against that were not available in the past? Try convincing a kid that stamp/coin collecting, etc is more fullfilling/interesting than his PS4/Xbox/Facebook page, etc? I applaud the attempts at innovation and marketing of an old product to try to meet and in some cases actually induce interest irrespective of my opinions either way of the end result.
Interesting. I try to buy only the one definitive coin per mint (ASE, Britannia, Maple etc) . Timewise then, Australia's definitive coin would be the kook . The koala and kanga then are additional even though the kanga has been cited as being intended to be Australia's ASE/Britannia /Maple type definitive. If I absolutely had to sell any of my coins, it would be the kangas and koalas first after the likes of FWS, WTE and croc types I now already don't buy in accordance with the theme of this thread.
Market value is a product of demand and supply and both factors are contributing to the decline in premiums. Silver has been in a long term bear market and buyers have lost interest. Less demand without a corresponding decrease in supply = lower premiums. Now mints are flooding the market with new supply. More supply with the same or less demand = lower premiums. In the next silver bull market, new buyers will emerge and premiums will increase. While I don't think this move is the big one, it won't be another 20 years before silver takes off again. Due to the added supply, maybe the premiums don't get as high as 2011, but they will go higher.
It's hard to say, it might be jumped for one year only and takes 10 more years to prepare another attack.
Stamps started off being used to prove that postage had been paid for delivery of an envelope. People collected them. The Post Office then changed the stamps when the prices changed, and people collected them. The Post Office brought out commemoratives, and people collected them. Then the post office brought out multiple sets each year, they brought out first day covers, they brought out year books, they brought out postcards, they flooded the market with product and people collected it. Even countries without a postal service were selling stamps. Then email came out, letters declined, the romance of a letter from a far away place dwindled and collectors were left with a bit of coloured paper with gum on the back which could only be used for a service that few people have any interest in. The collectors moved on to other hobbies, no new collectors joined the hobby and anyone left with albums full of stamps are not going to get a return on their 'investment'. Phonecards started being used to make calls from public phone boxes (so they didn't get broken in to for the cash). People collected them. The Telecom service brought out different pre paid amounts and people collected them. Then telecoms brought out commemorative phonecards and people collected them. Then the telecoms brought out multiple sets each year, advertisers and businesses put their logos on them, prisons had their own versions and people collected them. Then mobile phones became widespread. No one needed a public phone box anymore and collectors were left with a bit of coloured plastic which could no longer be used anywhere . The collectors moved on to other hobbies, no new collectors joined the hobby and anyone left with albums full of phonecards are not going to get a return on their 'investment'. Coins started off... well long story short, credit cards and paypal. We may think that at least we will always have the silver value, I am sure stamp owners thought they would always be able to post a letter with their collection and phonecard collectors figured they would be able to make a call if the worst came to the worst. The amount of product that bears little relation to the actual original purpose of 'coins' and the decreasing need for physical money means that this hobby is going to finish, fairly soon. I can't get anything extra for my $5 coins, my $1 carded coins have no interest either. I have already spent my '50 cents from circulation' accumulation and I am busy offloading as much as I can so I am not left with albums full of useless scrap metal. I have a few coins that I like but anything that I am treating as an 'investment' I am getting shot of. Anything that looks like it might only be worth its value in silver I am exchanging for silver bars. Bye-bye Kooks, Koalas, Lunars etc.
some interesting theories and very well written points of view here. Thanks for those. But now i'm depressed. 1. now i feel old, too 2. no one will want my crap in the future 3. even if they do, they will just want to melt it down 4. i was reminded of those albums of stamps i have 5. i hate the idea of a totally cashless society (but let's just attribute that to #1)
I saw everywhere selling stamps with face value or 10% less than face value (Oh my god)! But I am very sure it won't be happened on Silver Coins - I would like to offer silver spot price for all your mint condition silver coins!
I have my Dad's Albums of stamps, my own albums of stamps, my grandfather-in-law's albums of stamps, my Father-in-Law's albums of first day covers and boxes of unsorted stamps still on the envelopes. I have a wardrobe full of stamps and coins. Most of the old albums need throwing away, PVC pages. The cost to just move all the first day covers out of the old albums and into the new is far more expensive than the stamps are worth. I also have old collections of cigarette cards and PG Tips cards which are no longer made either. Tazos and Pogs, Cereal Box premiums, MacDonalds promos (TY toys anyone?!) Collectible card games, Woolworths cards still in their packets, Boxes of unopened trade cards... Most are going to be worthless and I could probably do with the space. I say the writing is on the wall, get shot of your stuff early! If you sell now, there is a whole forum of collectors willing to take them off your hands. If you sell in a few years time, when everyone else on the forum is trying to sell the same stuff, you will have to drop your prices as there will be fewer collectors and more sellers. If you leave it later there will be no one left who even wants them.
Rarity. Old but common postage stamps are usually selling for close to face value. Old and rare postage stamps are usually selling for very significant premiums. Old but common coins are usually selling for small premiums. Old and rare coins are usually selling for very significant premiums. .
