The global economic collapse still hasn't happened...

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Aug 14, 2016.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Yet, some continue the endless scaremongering, advertising their books and shows, thank God, the global economic collapse hasn't happened. :p

    ...yet :/

    The panic of '08, the Greek economic crisis, the Cyprus "bail ins", the Brexit, the West-Russia warmongering, the Ukraine crisis, the increasing US debt, the Fed's rate hikes, the oil price crash, the petrodollar system's crash, the shale oil trend, the gold repatriations and so on...

    ...one thing I'm really afraid of 'til today is: DEFLATION. This is one thing I can feel on my own skin and it really seems like we're spiraling down badly... Interest rates are already so low, it ain't worth keeping your money at the bank.

    Any thoughts on whether we're getting rapidly closer to it or, whether it will or will not happen? I'd like to read your thoughts...
     
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  2. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    We seem to be trapped between the hiatus of the inevitable and the imminent. It is that sense of the slow motion reality of the car crash. I now ignore the whole expectation, I have made my preparations and trust that I am always ready. It's almost that dynamic of the coward facing a thousand deaths, if you let it take control of your thoughts you will lose your day to day existence.
     
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  3. errol43

    errol43 New Member Silver Stacker

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    Off balance sheet Derivatives will no doubt bring the whole bloody system crashing down...When? AH! that is the question.

    Regards Errol 43
     
  4. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    Don't think much will happen until 'after' the U.S election.

    From then on its Game On!
     
  5. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Ever blown into a balloon without stopping and started to feel a bit nervous as it gets bigger and bigger? It's all scaremongering right up until the point it catastrophically blows.
     
  6. Topherclaus

    Topherclaus Active Member

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    Can they hold it though? Still a couple of months left and the stress cracks are starting to appear.
     
  7. brexitbaby

    brexitbaby New Member

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    Depends On Who Is Asking.
    and No because - ????????????????????? ;)
     
  8. Agnostic

    Agnostic Active Member Silver Stacker

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    It is not going to collapse (in an end of the the world sense).

    This is a winning position to take, because...

    if things really collapse, this forum will not be operating as there will be no internet :)
     
  9. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    That's why we should a Stacker HAM radio communication system in place.
     
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  10. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    manipulators have clocking devices, they can even stop the markets :lol: by keeping the market places closed.
     
  11. masmas

    masmas New Member

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  12. Clawhammer

    Clawhammer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The system began to collapse after the 1970's.

    Its been hidden by guns AND butter money printing and technological advances. But in real terms wages and energy consumption per capita have been falling since then.

    We're slowly sliding into an era of low growth & standards of living.

    The upside will be the end of endemic obesity, a rebuilding of the family unit, and a big contraction of government interference in everyday life. People lived before commuter traffic jams, the Kardashians and Pokemon Go... we'll be OK. As Carl Sagan once said, "we're an adaptable species"

    I see it as good thing.
     
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  13. SteveS

    SteveS New Member

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    I'm not arguing against you, but if that's true, how come living standards - for everybody - have continued increasing?
     
  14. Old Codger

    Old Codger Active Member Silver Stacker

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    NOT a fan of Rickards!


    OC
     
  15. masmas

    masmas New Member

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    Why is that ?
     
  16. Cinvalo

    Cinvalo Member

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    I am giving out my humble opinion since I am working on my next book on this subject.

    One thing I learnt along the way is that the economy works very differently compared to what our traditional beliefs. Instead of driven by purely demand and supply, assets prices are driven by liquidity - continuous credit growth. The China's ghost cities is a classic example.

    Instead of growing by saving and investment, credit growth drives economic growth.

    The five largest central banks in the world - The ECB (Eurosystems precisely), BOE, BOJ, The Federal Reserve, and People's Bank of China - is driving credit growth. Their combined balance sheet is a good indicator showing whether credit is likely to expand in the following years.

    One of the reasons why credit growth can expand is because of globalization. Today, 84 million people in China and 300million people in India are willing to work for less than $10 a day. This abundance of cheap labour cost is extremely deflationary. This is why Australia and many other countries' manufacturing base are shipped to China.
    The force of globalization is offsetting our wages and the price of goods but the expansion of credit is surging assets like real estate.

    Until the point where credit growth drives slower and slower and slower to nil economic growth or governments stop expanding credit, THAT global economic collapse still has a long way to go. But do expect to have a lot of bumpy rides along the way.
     
  17. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Some think Rickards is an intelligence operative and he is just not extreme enough for some people -- his analysis falls into the "sensible" end of the preparation spectrum, and rather than an all out bet-the-farm on a collapse, he advises on 10% gold (up to 20% if you are more aggressive) while still maintaining cashflow from business activities. He also uses complexity theory quite heavily in explanations for his predictions of a coming collapse rather than the more traditional "banksters/elites/reptilians" explanation:

     
  18. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    That's the thing with Rickards, he talks with great authority and experience, and how the system is going collapse etc, yet advises 10% gold as if that's going to save your bacon in a real financial collapse. His recommendation is almost not worthy of all his continued talk on the subject.
     
  19. Clawhammer

    Clawhammer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    All cool,
    The argument made is that technology has made machines, electronics etc more efficient which has covered up falling energy consumption per capita. Its that per capita component which is key.

    While total energy consumption is up... its being focused into a smaller and smaller number of businesses and individuals while the rest miss out.

    (Edit to add; energy consumption is used by economists as a measure of the activity/productivity of an economy. i.e. stone age man consumed/expended very little energy, steam era victorian economy used a lot more... 70's with gas guzzling cars, planes & factories was the peak. It is also important to mention energy consumption measured/compared in kilowatts/calories/BTU's not in $ spent on energy as it was cheap energy back in the 70's.)

    With regards to falling real wages. That can be seen in the increased working hours required to achieve the same (or a better) standard of living compared to the 70's.

    Where once a tradesman could support a mortgage stay at home mum and a couple of kids (and a holiday away each year), now it takes 2 wages just to struggle to get by.

    Hedonic adjustment is used to argue that new tehnology like video games, air conditioners & modern cars offset intangible increased life satisfaction like cheap beer, affordable housing, healthy lifestyles and good marriage and crime statistics.
     
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  20. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    He explains why a 10% gold allocation will be well worth it when the price increases relative to fiat and other assets. He also recommends holding land amongst other things. His point is also that you shouldn't forgo business cash flow because the profits can be used to buy more gold and other safe assets while life goes on prior to any crash.
     

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