Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by finicky, Aug 6, 2013.
The party ended in the late 90's
If you listen, all cash are rotating from tech to bank, pharma, industrial.
Telstra's share price is currently depressed making the stock a great buy opportunity.
The reasons why I'm bullish for TLS include,
1. The current yield is over 6%
2. Telstra will be receiving payments for leasing its network to NBN Co up until 2046.
3. These guaranteed payments from the federal government can be viewed as a government backed annuity.
4. Telstra have stated that they plan to return more capital to investors in the coming years.
5. Telstra will be investing billions of dollars rolling out a 5G mobile network between now and 2020.
5.1 The 5G wireless network will provide up to 1 gigabit per second mobile network speeds making the NBN Co's network redundant for many people.
5.2 Telstra's investment in 5G places the company in a unique position until competitors make similar investments.
5.3 Telstra's investment in 5G means that they aren't directly competing with NBN Co.
5.3.1 Competing directly with NBN Co is futile due to legislative restrictions that the federal government has implemented.
5.3.2 There is no need to compete with NBN Co when you can lease your fixed network to them while at the same time offer a superior wireless network.
I will not now, nor will I ever again deal with Telstra in any way, shape or form. Even if this is the best investment in the history of all investments, I would not place one cent in Telstra, nor would I ever be a customer or client. I would actively pay money not to deal with them again. Actually, I'm doing that right now. I avoid them at any and every opportunity available. They are incompetent, overpriced and I don't have the emotional resistance to deal with one more Telstra employee.
So you won't be connecting to the NBN, then? :|
Telstra's share price declines 7.35% on the news that TPG Telecom will be building their own 4G mobile network after spending $1.3 billion buying spectrum.
Investors may have forgotten that even though a fourth 4G network will provide competition to the market, Telstra is committed to rolling out 5G within the next 3 years.
Once rolled out 5G will provide up to 1 gigabit per second mobile download speeds making the 25Mbps or less 4G download speeds look archaic.
Wont need NBN, even with 4G most people will be happy if cost effective unlimited internet
These items seem completely contradictory to me. What am I missing?
Already many people don't need a home phone, would you need high speed terrestrial internet if you had unlimited 50mbps to 300mbps mobile internet and unlimited calls to mobile and landline.
So mobile carrier earn $20 or $30 more and NBN gets $0
As Ipv6Ready has touched on, if people can receive +100Mbps speeds over 5G than the need to have a fixed NBN connection at home is lessen.
Even though a major benefit of 5G wireless is the higher transfer speeds over 4G, the real benefit is that 5G is able to support higher number of connections per cell tower without degrading the overall network speed.
IPv6 - I get that. Have never had a home phone.
My point was Bit Baron is bullish on Telstra and one of the reasons was their 5G rollout which negates the need for NBN. However one of the other points was their NBN positioning.
TLS had over 4 billion wiped from their value yesterday on TPM announcement of them moving into the mobile space. Not certain Telstra future is as secure as it has historically been.
It's because selling nbn supplied services is expensive.
If you sell a service for $80 what the market will bear than sourcing a mechanism bypassing nbn which cost you $60 with alternate product for $45 means more profits.
The maximum theoretical speed of Telstra's 4GX network is 300Mbps and 1Gbps on their bastardised 4G-LTE network.
The speeds are already there, provided you're standing 5 meters away from a cell tower, holding your phone at just the right angle on a sunny day and everyone else within a 1km radius has their phone switched off.
As with every generation of data network that came before it, real world speeds of 5G will be a fraction of the theoretical maximum because radio frequencies are a shared medium and there's a limited amount of spectrum to go around. I'll be a great network, so long as nobody is using it.
And again, just like every network that came before it, 5G will be operating on higher frequencies so it will have shorter wavelengths...which means there'll need to be an order of magnitude more cell towers to ensure the users' device is in range. And all those cell towers will need to be connected to the rest of the internet by fiber optic cable because there's no point in having 1Gbps between your phone and the cell tower if the connection from the cell tower to everything else is slower than 1Gbps.
Without the NBN, Telstra will have even less incentive to drop their hideously expensive prices. TPG's entry to the 4G market will certainly provide some competition, but another source of high speeds with a low price-per-GB is important, especially since the 5G network itself isn't a complete solution to communications.
When I said 100mbps on 5g I wasnt talking Theoretical speeds. I was talking actual speeds for someone with less than average signal strength
Cost of cells are cheap too.
Like I said, on millimeter wavelength EHF bands the "theoretical maximum" is going to tank as soon as anything more substantial than a tree leaf gets between the cell and the user's antenna. The higher the frequency, the shorter the distance the signal can travel.
Even my 4G phone drops down to 3G when I walk from the lounge room into the laundry because there's concrete walls full of rebar blocking the higher frequency 4G signal, and even that is just getting kicked down from 1800MHz to 900MHz.
If Telstra's hardware supplier (Ericsson) can get multi-gigabit speeds at 60GHz, that's great, but it's still not going to be able to get through my laundry wall.
They'll need to be.
I'm not saying it won't work, just that it won't be as great as the marketing material makes out and it won't be a fully fledged alternative to hardwired access.
I actually have team of spectrum engineers, already have a multiple cities and it works.
You have to take all those web forum chatter where self acknowledged experts cut and paste silly information from other web experts with a grain of salt.
Plus Telstra have lost $5 billion market cap in 24 hours, because of what is about to happen
I have to rely on charts for a decision and the share-price is still confined to a downtrend channel. The price has not broken above any downtrend line or challenged a resistance level. No bullish monthly candle yet, although last week's candle is hopeful and weekly momentum has upticked. There's no buy signal yet the way I look at it. And really, is TLS one of the better places to put your money?
"Is Telstra $TLS finally a Buy after nearly halving in share price? Shaw and Partners CIO Martin Crabb certainly seems to think so #ausbiz #XJO #investing #equities "Everything has a price""
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