Telstra (TLS)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by finicky, Aug 6, 2013.

  1. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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  2. boyracer

    boyracer Member

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    Yeah fair enough. I had only a quick look at work in between other stuff and without java running properly had to use a crappy little charting tool. I'll have a better look when (if) I get home tonight.
     
  3. benjammin5150

    benjammin5150 New Member

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    From looking at that chart, its gonna do what the rest of the market is gonna do...sink like a rock over the next few months. Do not buy here. It has hit a resistance level, its over bought, and momentum and volume have fallen off a cliff since the rally began. Its been in a strong two year rally without much of a break...unsustainable. 4.00 is the first support level, but it should break that easily. 3.50 is a little stronger support but in major selloffs things tend to over-correct. If this stock had options Id bet the house that sept-oct are gonna be very bad months.
     
  4. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Great. Good to have some conviction added. Fi rst time ever Ive used an ipad. These things are kerazy
     
  5. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/ar...il&utm_term=0_ebb2490e1c-f62cc6a1b7-137602186


    Telstra commits to NBN September 09, 2013 09:15 AM
    Telstra Corporation Limited (ASX:TLS) looks set to be a key player in the construction of the coalition's alternative national broadband network.

    The coalition's cheaper NBN plan will use Telstra's last-mile copper network to connect to fibre nodes on street corners.

    The plan is expected to require significant changes to the $11 billion deal Tesltra struck with the Gillard government in 2011 to lease its infrastructure and migrate its traffic on to the NBN.

    Speaking with media, Telstra chief executive officer David Thodey committed to working with the coalition to deliver their NBN, but says the telco will not settle for anything less than the $11 billion deal it was to be paid under the previous agreement.

    He says Telstra's priority will remain focused on meeting its existing commitments and winning customers on the NBN where it is available.

    Telstra delivered a full-year net profit of $3.86 billion in fiscal 2013.
     
  6. boyracer

    boyracer Member

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  7. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Telstra looks like it's in strengthened position doesn't it? And they still have the same people at the top to again negotiate a good deal.

    Chartwise my call for 4.50 looks in danger now. It's starting to look like it wants to have another go at long term resistance? If it does do that again so quickly you'd have to see that as bullish is my take. On the daily chart the momentum is also on the brink of going positive.

    Can still get in at about Motley's price: 25-Jul-13 BUY 4.78, but I think I'll wait for more direction
     
  8. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  9. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Think I could be wrong on this one. The chart is behaving too strongly. On the weekly we have 3 white candles in a row and price is almost back at the old resistance level again. It recovered quickly from the dip and is looking good. Over at the monthly chart it is still near overbought levels but I wouldn't bet against it breaking through.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Silvercross

    Silvercross Member

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    I sold half of my position at $5 but I bought in at $3.60.
    I think that it could go higher but I wanted a safe exit point.
     
  11. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    IS THE PARTY OVER FOR TELSTRA?
    ROGER MONTGOMERY December 16, 2013
    http://rogermontgomery.com/is-the-party-over-for-telstra/

    "When we look at the data for TLS, the historical picture is fairly stark. Over the past 10 years, TLS has delivered nearly flat EPS, averaging around 30 cents per share. FY13 was a bit better than average, with EPS hitting 32 cents, but this is no more than the result achieved in 2004. On a 10 year view, TLS EPS growth has effectively been nil.

    This is an important point. It means that unless the future looks very different to the past, TLS is unlikely to deliver material growth in intrinsic value going forward. While the future is inherently unpredictable, it is worth noting that TLS is the dominant player in the Australian market, and technological change presents opportunities for nimble competitors to cherry-pick attractive market opportunities. In short, it seems difficult to mount a persuasive case for strong future growth for TLS.

    This brings us to valuation. If TLS is unable to grow intrinsic value over time, then a comparison of current intrinsic value with share price should give us a sense of the potential future returns.

    Estimating intrinsic value is as much an art as a science, but there are a few facts that are relevant. Firstly, over the last 10 years the TLS share price has fluctuated in a range between about $3.00 and $5.00 per share. The current share price is at the top of this range, and given that EPS has not grown in this period, it seems reasonable to expect that share price reversion back to the mean may be more likely than continued growth going forward."


    After 3rd attempt TLS has failed to decisively break through so far. Now looks in danger of overbalancing its uptrend?
    2 YEAR WEEKLY
    [​IMG]
     
  12. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Looks like some of us got it wrong on Telstra? At what point do you say that multi-year resistance is overcome? The 5.20 area is overcome it appears. Keeps on creeping up but on declining monthly volume and with momentum indicators (monthly) not confirming the rise. I'd say 5.50 is the new resistance - fell back from that zone in 2002 and 2005.

    Telstra Poised for Upside - a chart view
     
  13. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Will probably slowly climb until it goes ex divy about this time next month
     
  14. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Telstra at 5.54 bid up almost 2% on the day after reporting earnings per share (eps) growth of 14%. Modest increase of dividend plus a buyback. However guidance for NPAT FY15 "broadly flat"

    Chart now at the final crucial level of ~5.50 the level it broke down through in 2001 and stayed below for the next 13 years
    You could read a few weaknesses into the current monthly chart, for one volume doesn't seem to be strengthening yet, but I'm fence sitting and have no confidence about which way it will go.
     
  15. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    everyone said it would never get over 5 bucks, now its looking towards 6.
     
  16. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    $6.41 at the bid these days. Would have been a good place to park cash over the length of this thread. Better than a lot of stocks and so much better than cash in a cash management account. Ah well....
    This is Quarterly chart, i.e each candle = 3 months - think I'd have to say $5.10 multi-year resistance has been left well behind now. Might ponder the charts of TLS and the comments made at much lower prices.
    When does it correct though ...?

    TLS all data quarterly chart
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_tls_all_data_quarterly_feb_20.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  17. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Has dropped to a 12 month low recently.
    5.45 now.
    A so called 'bullish white soldier' candlestick pattern today. This occurred on strongish volume, and a full white candle (marubozu).
    Daily scale only, so nothing to convince the investor yet.

    http://www.candlesticker.com/Pattern.aspx?lang=en&Pattern=2111
     
  18. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Short term rally took the price to 5.60 from 5.45 in 3 days. Lingered under 5.60 for a few days until bulls wilted and longer term downtrend resumed.
    5.18 now
     
  19. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Telstra TLS, back to old support/resistance level of $5 and looking dicey.

    Reminds me a bit of the CBA situation.

    This is the all data Quarterly chart of TLS

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_big_19.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  20. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Telstra down again today
    Telstra TLS, very toppy looking shape above $5, support seems to have gone again

    TLS monthly
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_big_52.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     

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