For what it's worth, I'd wager we're in early Stage 2 at best (if not still struggling to get out of Stage 1). Consider what you're seeing in the property market now or what was seen in the tech stock boom ten years ago, then compare that with where silver is now. Gold Buyers Australia is probably some of the smart money getting in on the action nice and early while the general public can't make an informed decision about how much the precious metals are worth. I'm not going to worry about stage 3 until: - "Everybody knows that PM's double in price every n years." - PMs are practically always bought with borrowed money. - The ATO extends the tax advantages available on investment properties to precious metals. - All of the home renovation reality TV programs and special interest magazines are gone & replaced with metals mags. - The property section of the newspaper shrinks to a few pages inside the general business section, while PMs receive their own supplement. - Random people won't look at you like you've lost half your brain when you tell them you own a non-trivial amount of precious metal. - Gold Buyers Australia goes out of business since the general public now know exactly how much precious metals are worth. - The Leader of the Opposition is on TV bemoaning the fact that Working Families are unable to protect their wealth now that PMs are out of reach. - You will shake your head at the current spot price and admit to yourself "there is no way one ounce of silver is worth that much" - All of the current forum members have offloaded their entire stacks at insane profit.
Will be buying CCU and SVL... was going to about 6 months back, but had to accept a $15000 loss on an oil and gas stock.. swore to never touch shares again but i think its time to get back on the horse. Make alot more money owning shares in a precious metals bull market than owning bullion. Will keep buying physical cause i love the stuff, just not as much. Will sell out in June in case the sharemarket tanks after QEII ends.
Where do I start? Shares v Bullion? You do not hold the shares, but you hold the Buillion. The premise of THE RICHEST MAN IN BABYLON is put aside 10% of your wages for yourself. Premise 2 is DO NOT INVEST IN SOMETHING YOU DO NOT KNOW ABOUT. Premise 3 is DO NOT LOOK FOR "HUGE" GAINS in your investments. Mind you the book THE RICHEST MAN IN BABYLON was first printed in the 1920's and was reprinted till the 1950's so............... Save 10% of your pay. Live within your means. If it sounds to good to be true....Its a SCAM. BUT........the book was written before the the intro of of the internet & modern stockmarkets. The bottom line that I am getting at is.......... BE CAREFUL with your hard earned $. But saying that........ With the POS & info & internet etc & world fiat being pumped by TPTB........... The Silver rocket has had the technology to get to the launch pad & the the fire has been ingited for launch. How far is it to the Moon? Enjoy the ride, but be aware of the pitfalls of the the technology that has fired the machine. comments????
So far bullion and CCU have handsomely rewarded Investing involves risk Saving 10% of you pay has different connotations now Saving 10% of a gold convertible currency meant something back in the 20s Save 10% now, in fiat, and you are looking at a 50% loss in less than a decade, given inflation of the supply (not the RBA 2-3% figure, but real loss of purchasing power), coupled to low interest rates and taxation on earnings. And the 10% figure will depend on your income. Much more relevant with a 1920s sole breadwinner at the lower end without the mortgage sinkhole, but with the lady of leisure and rug rats.
What makes any theory strong is if you can put forward one or more things that would allow your position to be falsified. What thing/factor/issue etc would make your "we are in phase 3" theory wrong? What is the falsification test for this?
I once saw a painting entitled "The Betrothal". I asked my father "Dad, what does Betrothal mean?" he said "well son, its the act of betrothing". None the wiser on Betrothing, I realised then and there that one cannot prove something by using the suggested answer as proof. By providing your blog as evidence does not substantiate your belief. from my humble persepctive it seems that this blog entry lends more weight to the fact tat we are in the later period of stage-1 or very early stage-2. A two page article in an investment magazine which doesnt even convince or sell people on the idea to buy silver isnt exactly mainstream media panic is it?
In terms of Popperian falsifiability, we should look at the definition of phase III It is defined by qualitative criteria. This does not lend itself well to the scientific method, unless you are privy to esoteric quantitative definitions of a phase III, if it is even regarded that way from a mathematical perspective. Failing a numerical or algorithmic definition, we have certain "facts" which are accepted as definitive of phase III. As the 3 phase explanation comes from a Canadian transport economist, then we could look at Jean Paul Rodrigue's explanation in his blog. To me, the irreducible "fact" that distinguishes III from other phases is speculative borrowing. Howver, if we want to have a more robustly reliable qaulitative definition, we would have to examine III in other asset manias and see what qualitatively holds "true" across all bubbles. I would argue with others that phase III is determined by mass psychology, and there is precious little of that evident, starting with the fact that there are (just) shy of 1000 stackers in this forum. I would expect a property forum in its heyday would cream that number.
Thanks for the figures, hobes, the stirling effort in the ounce/house price graphs and your blog. My view is that silver is an extremely volatile play, and the recent rise may lead to a false sense of comfort for the uninitiated. One look at the great depression brings to mind the dead cat bounce of the stock market to the point where it seemed the crash was over. Then, the cat fell off precipice after steep precipice, eviscerating a full 90% of the stock market's value in short order as it splattered all over the bottom in 1932. The GSR went to 1:100 But that was then.
I'm inclined to see the next leg down as a bear trap, if anything, but I'm not beholden to that model of thought
Every new investor thinks they have bought in the early stages. Even the new investors buying near the peak of the bull horns will still 'think' they are buying in the early stages - the market is fantastic at destroying the wealth of the incompetent.
300, 000, 000+ Americans 1.6 billion Chinese more than a billion Indians All of them love precious metals in their own historical ways Just from the USA point 28K/300M = 9.3 x 10 to the minus 5, AFAIK I don't think my vista calculator can handle it if I added China/India
basically in the USA, as per the figure, which is also not necessarily representative, but is a start, we are dealing with: 9.3 stackers per 100 000 so, that about 1 stacker per 10 000 now, let's assume they are all Usanians, which, most likely, the majority are, but as we are dealing with such small numbers of Kitcomm stackers, our estimate could be overestimated significantly, although we are not accounting for lurkers even still, if all 28K Kitcomm stackers are Usanians, then that means this: 1 in 10 000 Americans goes to Kitco As a proxy for stacking, it is difficult to interpret. Perhaps the true number of stackers is many multiples of this. I hope so. But even if it is several multiples, it will still be less than 1 in 1 000 Consider property. How many per 10 000 speculated in property in the boom? I would argue it is closer to 1 in 100 or less. Perhaps significantly less.
The ~1000 members is misleading. In the last month Silver Stackers has been accessed from over 14,000 unique IP addresses - even if you halved that number and said that every visitor accessed the website from home and work, that's still at least 7,000 visitors. There's a LOT of lurkers on here.
I've accessed it from over 5 unique IPs in the last month and over time, my login will show several others, if that data is researchable. I have lurked from many locations. The trouble is the lurkers, you never know if they are unique individuals. But no doubt, probability and game theory are weedling their way into forum traffic science
Good points, but, Group A Group B (Americans) (West Europeans) **** (Chinese) (Indians) 300 m 500m **** 1600m 1000m (avg daily wage in $ - my estimates ) $150 $150 **** $25 $25 ( eg. 300 x $150) 45,000 m$ 75,000m$ **** 40,000 25,000 note: rough figures used and the entire population assumed as 'working' - just wanted to show the qualitative principles) I think that the West Liberal Precious Metals stacker ( group A ) should not be that 'scared' ( YET !!) of the laaaarge numbers of Chinese and Indians (group B ) slowly waking up to the world of Precious Metals. Popluation of group B is roughly around 3 times larger than group A and for as long as average daily wages of A > B ( when measured in $US !! ) is more than 3, things will still be ok for group A. *** *** assuming the status quo continues and no sudden swarms of black swans showing up and pooping but thats me,..
