Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by Silverthorn, Dec 9, 2011.
best day yet I think.
Just love this stock bought in at 50 and loaded up more yesterday, wont be selling soon and not too late to buy imo.
First gold pour at thunderbox announced.
Not often you see a stock raging like this. Really looks like it needs a rest, but why would that happen with the gold rise overnight and Thunderbox news? Is at the level of Dec 2011 high which was highest in a decade. Ripe for a monthly pullback, but not confident with SAR.
some good drill results out today.
sar might have predicative powers.
Very nice upgrade to reserves and resources at Karari.
"Carosue Dam set for long life"
Doing particularly well today. Getting a bit of extra leverage from the forthcoming production increase I'm guessing.
Added to the s&p 200
Added chart as well
Commercial production declared at Thunderbox. 7000 ounces produced in April.
Ramp up of Deep South underpins carouse dam. More drilling for red October to come.
So I was thinking with brexit settling down gold might retest to maybe 1280 or even 1250 but it seems to want to hold above 1300. I had a look at my two best stocks today and they seem poised to break higher on any good news.
SBM has consolidated nicely and seems poised to move up and away from its recent trend if we get some good news and/or price action.
Saracen looks to have a particularly aggressive stance at the moment and could move to whole new level quite easily I suspect.
DYOR but if SAR moves higher at some stage I might actually jump on some more but more of a trade this time.
start of drill results to come.
it didn't pop as much as I thought it would. hopefully this will spark things up a bit.
been an up tick in shorts, looks like they are bailing today?
So, not a holder of SAR but am comparing it to Northern Star NST. This is usually not appreciated on a stock specific sub-forum, but I'm investigating lately whether there is anything comparable to NST on the asx for a buy. Why should I buy this company rather the NST? That is now the main question I ask when looking again at SAR or any other ASX goldie. Do I wish I bought SAR at 20c or 30c? Of course, and I would still be holding today if I did. But what are a proponent's arguments today when SAR is 6x the price to back then?
My reasons for buying SAR a few years ago would have been the company's confident projections of production coupled with earlier heavy director buying. The positive hedging account also helped while the Gold outlook was gloomy. The strongest argument for SAR then was the cratered and apparently recovering share price chart.
Today there are enough years of production and profit to look at it from a 'business performance' angle, which allows a simple comparison with NST.
Comparison fy12 - fy16
Book Value ($): 0.34, 0.29, 0.29, 0.33, 0.34
Return on Equity (%): 11.80, -21.60, 2.60, 4.90, 9.90
Book Value ($): 0.23, 0.26, 0.42, 0.55, 0.75
Return on Equity (%): 23.20, 25.20, 15.80, 33.70, 36.90
Thus far, SAR is unimpressive versus NST on these metrics. The book value hasn't grown for SAR, and its ROE has been a bit lame cf NST. Recall NST has been paying a dividend which is a small dampener on the growth of book value.
This view is backward looking of course, and there is at least one analyst forecasting a massive ramp up of production and profit fy17 and fy18 for SAR.
Like NST, SAR doesn't have sIgnificant debt and holds some cash, and at 3.7 price/book is significantly cheaper than NST which is 5.3 P/B
So the preferabilty of NST to SAR is not as clear cut to me as NST to EVN, or NST to BLK.
joint venture with Anglogold announced.
Just wondering, if it goes down, will we get a post here and on other gold stocks, " Oh, just to let you know, I sold mine around the time it peaked", that is so typical of the 'sliversale' type contributions to this forum?
It's a long term play for me as long as the company keeps going well and it really just keeps getting better. I particularly like the following in the quarterly. With drilling to come the hope is not only will they have increased production but increased mine life.
11% growth in Resources to 8.4Moz, after depletion of 205koz
Reserves of 1.5Moz maintained after depletion of 205koz and a modest
FY16 exploration budget of ~A$16.9m
FY17 exploration budget increased to a record A$42m , with priority targets including
Karari, Deep South, Red October, Thunderbox and KOTH -
all with potential to significantly increase Reserves and mine life
They also anglogold chipping in with a possible 25 million in exploration.
Of course its always vulnerable to the gold price so taking a little profit doesn't hurt, and I have done that previously, but I'm not keen to sell at the moment when the bull market may have only got started again.
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