[QA] If I had approx $10k for Pandas...?

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Oct 11, 2011.

  1. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Q> If I had approx $10k for Pandas, what would you think would give me the best potential for the next 6-18months.

    Take care and keep up the good work.

    A> Thanks heaps for your question. The following is my mere humble opinion, which may work out to be very profitable, or downright depressingly bad... so I think it is very good idea to get a few opinions (especially from people like Panda Collector, Tamo42 and Comeaux who have a greater amount of experience with Pandas).
    - Panda Collector writes the Pricepedia and Panda Buyers Book
    - Tamo42 writes one of the premiere frequent Panda lists for LBC.
    - Comeaux has the Comeaux Panda Collection... amazing.

    The safest play with $10K, for a 6-18month time frame (imho), would be to buy bulk 2011 Pandas. Here is why:
    1. Spot silver is likely to appreciate above its current price (taking the 2011 Pandas with them).

    2. 2012 Pandas are likely to be released in Jan/Feb next year, which should automatically appreciate the price of the 2011 Pandas.

    3. Demand for 2011 Pandas is still going strong worldwide. Many dealers are out of stock, and considering that 4 Monster boxes sold within a few days on Silverstackers, this shows the demand for these bears is very strong. The mintage of these bears have been increased to 6million; so while this may reduce its numismatic price in the mid-long term, it is a good indicator of strong demand.

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_0196s.jpg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_0195s.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]

    I don't think you can really lose with this strategy (but please forgive me if I am wrong). The returns should be better than spot, if only because of the introduction of the 2012 series.

    If this was my money, I would want higher returns, and would play it like this:

    1. Get one 1oz 2000 Mirror Panda BU. The demand for these is usually always strong, because the best Panda silver sets will depend on this coin. The first preference to many Panda silver sets is the much famed 1oz 2000 Mirror Panda. Plus, with a time frame of 6-18months, there isn't an urgent rush to sell, so you should be able to get a decent price. I would go for a good quality original mint packaged bear, one that had no obvious flaws, and hopefully get it graded MS68, MS69, or above. But even if it got graded less, it's not a huge loss, since this is a key Panda to any present and future Panda collectors. Price approx. $1500AUD.
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_2000ob.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_2000re.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]

    2. Get one 1oz 1995 Micro Date, Small Twig BU. This is principally following the same line of thought as above, but even rarer. Price approx. $1500AUD.
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1995ob.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1995remd.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]

    3. With the remaining funds:
    a) Go all out on the 2011 1oz Panda BU. This a relatively safe play.

    OR

    b) Get a complete BU set of 1989-2011 Pandas, and then use the remaining funds for 2011 1oz Panda BU. Then at your leisure, split the set for a profit. It is usually easier to make a 10% profit on a $100 coin, than it is to make a 10% profit on a $40 coin (in my view). Lower priced coins are often seen as a commodity, higher priced coins are often seen as a collectible.

    This requires a bit more work and patience though. But with so many people collecting Pandas, it is often the case that people won't mind paying a little bit extra to complete their sets (I know I do).

    E.g. I don't mind paying $159.50 (current price $145) for a really good quality 2002 Panda. But I'm unlikely to pay $45.65 (current price $41.50) for a standard 1oz 2011 Panda.
    Price for a complete set approx. $4000
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1990buf.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1989buf.jpg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_0742.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_0736.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]


    I like the aggressive play for a couple of reasons:
    1. If spot drops in 6-18months, my 2000 Mirror and 1995 Micro Date, Small Twig, are for a good measure immune to the drop. So I don't lose, and if sell them, I can use the profits to get more ounces (if desired). If spot rises in 6-18months, then so do my 2000 Mirror and 1995 MD ST Pandas.

    2. Unless worldwide popularity for Pandas diminishes, I can set the price for the 2000 Mirror and 1995 Micro Date, Small Twig... because there really are not many of these out there. So I can take my time and sell at my desired price.

    3. If spot jumps in 6-18months, my 1oz 2011 Pandas are stacked to take advantage of that.

    4. If Pandas start selling out like crazy, or one particular coin is all of a sudden in huge demand, at least I have a set ready to profit from.

    5. It is satisfying to have a completed 1oz Silver Panda set.

    6. I have the option of grading some or all of the older Pandas.

    7. If the SHTF without notice, I got 2011 1oz Silver Pandas for guns, ammo, tinned food, etc - plus the 2000 Mirror and 1995 MD, ST for when the dust settles.

    I hope this helps,
    yennus.
     
  2. comeaux

    comeaux New Member Silver Stacker

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    This is a difficult question to answer and Peter would probably have infinitely more insight I'm sure 10 people would have 10 different answers.

    Probably best to go $5,000 bullion & $5,000 pandas but if you are going 100% pandas then

    If I would look at this $10,000 investment strictly from an investment strategy point of view without any regard for "collecting"

    I would probably do something really unorthodox like put it all in the lowest mintage and closest to spot gold fractionals serious collectors that are building gold panda sets will at some point in time need that one fractional to complete their set some of the fractional lately have sold for astronomical prices.
    *** Disclaimer this opinion should not be construed as "investment advice" it is only my opinion" *** :D
    It is very interesting to see some of the rare fractionals selling for more than the .5 oz or 1 oz on of that particular year.

    Bimetals seem to be on fire as well an NGC graded PF69UC 1995 5 oz bimetal panda recently auctioned in Hong Kong for over $95,000 this is a 16 year old coin !
     
  3. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    Sheesh what a nice dilemna to have!! My 2 cents, go for the 1/2oz Ag Panda series 93-98... I have a few and with no mintage figures and some may prove rare. And theyre still cheap. Thats speculative however and this question gives a timeframe for cash profits so I would favour yennus strategy over comeaux, but only just... they both have pros and cons. It's a risk reward thing, yennus' is safer, Comx is riskier, but it's all relative.

    There is one big factor in all of this and that's LIQUIDITY. Youll have alot more 11 1oz Pandas than fractional coins. Unless you have plenty of buyers you may end up selling cheaper than you want to... if you have the fractionals holding onto them is better in the long run I think = no biggie and your strategy changes, hoping for bigger, but delayed, profits. Then there's post issues if you're selling 1 or 2 1ozs here and there, time, paypal or ebay charges, all factors to consider. You may get lucky and hit on one big buyer but that's no guarantee maybe... chances are that those types have already moved into something else.

    On the minus side for the fracs, really you HAVE to get them graded/slabbed at the least, pref conserved to reap the profit. Thats an issue for all outside the States and must be followed through if you decide to go fracs. This is the single largest issue regards to my own collection on my mind at present. Looking at comeauxs collection has convinced me of that as much as I hate the slabs, I'm in agreement with fishball on that, OMP all the way... soft plastic, mmm.

    I like the Mirrors, Micro play also. How come you didnt go for the serif 1 coin yennus? Maybe because it's come back slightly in price lately, do you think it's cooling off? Actually of the 3 my fav design/finish is the almost prooflike serif 1.

    Agree on the bimetals Comeaux on fire man!!! They are the most exciting coins with huge potential, anytime you can buy them will be profitable.
     
  4. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Thanks Comeaux and 25Grizzlies... indeed, you both offer very good recommendations and views... and both people have really amazing collections!

    <25Grizzlies is coming up to Sydney for Steve's SydneyStackers Meet, to share about his experiences collecting Pandas, and what his hot tips are... many thanks!>

    Hopefully PandaCollector and Tamo42 will have time to share their opinions too.

    Very true Comeaux "I'm sure 10 people would have 10 different answers." I'm glad we can safely share views in the Panda Forum.

    How come I didnt go for the serif 1 coin? I want to, it's just that with the budget of $10,000, I didn't think I could cover the number of 1oz 2011 Pandas I was hoping for if I bought the 1999 Serif too... so I merely settled for the 2000Mirror and the 1995 MD ST :), but definitely, ideally all three would be good. I don't think the number of silver Panda set collectors will be diminishing in our lifetime (I could be completely wrong of course).
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1995re.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1999ob.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]

    When you think about how few 1oz 2000 Mirrors there potentially are (estimated to be <15,000), the right question is not "Why is it so expensive?", but rather, "Why is it so cheap!?"

    I'm sure many will see this and say bubble... but I am seeing this as an opportunity to get in early... because I don't think the Pandamonium is anywhere near over... I think it is only just beginning.

    The following is mere opinion: The number of Panda dealers worldwide are growing... The number of Panda deals being made are increasing worldwide (more so than in previous years)... The auction results of Pandas are improving... I think, give the BIG THREE a couple of years, and we could be looking at some pretty fantastic crazy bid prices.
     
  5. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    Nice reply yennus :)

    This is thread unrelated, apologies, will keep this brief.

    Your statement about them being so cheap and the Pandamonium that's just starting resonated with me on how right we might just be on these Pandas/chinese coins. The Chinese Govt. gravely underestimated numismatic demand in 01 when they thought they had a design which would be the final one. Collector response was swift and cutting, they didnt want their series to become like the plain and frankly boring collections of other nations. They relented and in 03 obvoiusly we got our series back.

    It just dawned on me!!! This is a PUBLICLY DRIVEN PHENOMENA we are dealing with here, so far as I know there isnt another single collectors series in the world with the particular dynamics of Panda/CC series. Anything with that sort of backing, well to be frank, in that regard I can't ever see it failing. Couple with that with a tested and proven theme (pandas) and the population demand to take the series further it's a winner.

    I ignore lunar series because I just don't see them as having the same potential, same with the unicorns for that matter. They will do very well for a small group of collectors but I dont think they have mainstream appeal necessarily.

    We have alot to be thankful for to those early collectors!
     
  6. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I completely agree with your view.

    Well written! :)

    Also, with China beginning to relax its one-child policy regulations, we can imagine that there will be potentially even more collectors in the short and long term.

    When babies are born, Pandas are sometimes given/received as gifts, or purchased to commemorate the birth.
    When those babies turn into adults in 20years, some of them will be the next generation of Panda collectors too :)

    With in excess of 1.4billion Chinese people, I also don't see demand diminishing for Pandas anytime soon.
     
  7. Dandan

    Dandan New Member

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    Hi guys.

    I have happened upon some gold plated pandas celebrating some expo's and such. Are these examples of bimetal pandas?

    cheers

    Dan
     
  8. Anthony

    Anthony New Member

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    Bimetals will usually have one type of metal for the rim and then a different metal centre.

    Example:
    http://p2.la-img.com/971/24254/8834124_3_l.jpg
     
  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Particularly sets
     
  10. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    That's called Gilded Pandas, not Bimetal.
     
  11. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    Back to the topic at hand, with 10k, personally I would go for a few MS68 or MS69 25 and 50 yuan gold pandas. That's if I couldnt source any 1/10th 1/28th bimetallics, at the moment highly unlikely finding any with pop of around 2500 each, probably less available. I have seen VERY few for sale all year. My interest is however not in turning a quick profit with Pandas... if yours is then I would go with yennus advice here, he's been doing this on the ground awhile now and I would go on that pedigree.
     
  12. Dandan

    Dandan New Member

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    Yeah. I saw one of these OMP. Gold in the centre and silver rim. About $250 from memory. Everything in the shop was overpriced, and not knowing the value of a bimetal im tippin this was way over too.

    dan
     
  13. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Some Pandas, like this 2004 Commemorative Panda (very underloved and underpriced imho) is 1oz silver, but has some gold gilding... is not a bi-metal Panda.
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_silver2004pandare.jpg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_silver2004pandafr.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]

    Other Pandas, like these are bi-metal Pandas (sorry for the poor image quality).
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1997bimetre.jpg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_2291.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_2292.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1997bimetre2.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    MS68's? Why grizzlies? 69's and 70's for me only, unless of course you're trying to complete typesets of course and can't afford or obtain a better grade coin I suppose. :)
     
  15. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    Hi shiny, I'd love all 69's and 70's but I target the lower mintage coins and yes there is a little of your can't afford the better coins statement with me. It' sthe old dilemna go for a few really expensive coins or spread it out with cheaper ones. In my opinion whatever level you are in in Pandas you are doing just fine. In that regard MS68 is a perfectly acceptable investment coin as only under microscopic examination are they flawed. I have a MS68 1985 1oz Pr Panda, trust me in my eyes it's at least a 69!!

    Now I wouldnt be buying a MS68 for a coin later than 03 because, well, that would be foolish.
     
  16. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    ##sigh## Yennus, you really have to stop posting that 97 bimetallic coin, it's driving me nuts! LOL
     
  17. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    AHahah... when you come over to Shanghai I'll introduce you to the owner :)

    Really really pleasant guy. He's the one that flies to the US to buy the coins back from the Americans. Doesn't speak a word of English though, but I'll have a translator available for you.
     
  18. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    I agree completely, go 69 and 70 whereever possible. When the coin has a population of <2,500 there just won't be that many 69 and 70s around because there just ain't that many of that coin around.. These are the ones I'll buy 68 with happily!
     
  19. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    It's a great question because it forces me to question and accept my purchasing strategy. I would turn down many beautiful coins if I refused anything lower than a 69. If someone were to offer me a bimetallic Panda graded MS68 would I turn it down, absolutely not! I'd be mad turning it down. So there are cases for a 68 IMO. Conversely you could possibly get a common MS70 1/10 gold panda for the same price, an example only don't quote me on prices, it's whatever makes you happy in the end. That and the fact that our collections will make someone else happy one day... isn't this what we're all hoping for? Always I'm hoping :)
     
  20. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    PF68 for Bimetallic Pandas are already amazingly expensive and rare, it makes sense to buy 68 for such rare coins but if you bought a MS68 2011 1oz Silver Panda that'd be pretty dumb ;)

    There are important factors to consider such as rarity of population and to a degree, the rarity of the gradings.

    In both cases, a PF68 Bimetallic Panda should perform very well.

    Personally I'm opting for the cheap low risk route of hoarding fractional Gold OMP Pandas, I'm thinking of dabbling in slabbed high grade coins but I really need to do a lot more research first :p

    Here's a post on CCF that might interest you

    http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2618.msg22466#msg22466

    Underlined the part that I think would be an important consideration.
     

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