I like the game of poker because I see lots of analogies of the psychology of the game in business, investing/trading and human interaction. To win big you have to bet big, but picking the time to do it is the challenge. The ultimate stakes is going ALL IN. I have been building up my stack for a couple of years but still with some degree of caution. My stack represents approx 50% of my assets which include cash, small amount of stock and a car that I own outright. Then I have available credit card limit equal to my current stack size. At some point, probably within the next 12 months, I know that I will have to go all in on precious metals. Currency devaluation will become too obvious, countries might default, continued US-sponsered 'destabilisation' of the middle east, degenerating geopolitics, china inflation, Europe going down the toilet, Australian house prices etc. It is all coming to a head. Any change in currency situation is most likely to happen rather quickly either behind closed doors followed by a shock announcement (eg co-ordinated bank/trading/forex holiday) or rampant and sudden hyperinflation. You want to be ALL IN before this point in time. So you might ask why am I not ALL IN already? Well I am 50% now, which is pretty aggressive to begin with. The stooges of the paper market (COMEX etc) have shown recently that they still have a few hands to play - I am not yet ready to call their bluff. There are still good reasons to keep some spare cash plus I would consider "ALL IN" for me to be a big final purchase where I also use credit cards, convert my super to 100% precious metals and perhaps even sell my precious car (obviously before oil gets to $300 a barrel when no one will buy a car.) It would be a total shift in psychology - bunkering down and weathering the storm. At some point physical precious metals might be the ONLY place to be to preserve any level of wealth above that of a peasant.
Is that V8 you have, why dont you down size to a Suzuki and spend the rest on Gold, cant lose there as cars depreciate much more than paper fiata I have a siimilar plan to yours but I try to forget the current spot price and build a nice arsenal of heavy precious metals best of luck
Wow gents I can here your big brass ones clanking from here - 100% in any 1 asset class..........just wow.
i like the game of poker as well. Currently situation is in like a large sit n go tournament where the ANTES have started along with the blinds. There is a catch with the antes tho : they are leaving the tables, so you can continue making money in poker and produce profitability, BUT YOU SHOULD HAVE PART OF THAT CASH INSTEAD OF BEING IN THE ACCOUNT, BEING IN THE FORM OF METAL HOLDINGS. I dont know why ur waiting for a perfect all in moment - what if you dont interpret the signals at the time - its not like you will get an email alerting you to go all in now. what if it never comes ?! Instead - cash out a portion and convert to holdings, with the rest continue playing, and than cash that out as well and continue doing until SHTF or until you bust out ur poker acnt - in either case stop playing poker after event.
I took a poll here almost a year ago here. Unfortunately I can no longer see the results, but there were already people at 100% or 80%+ (the Celente move) back then. At some point the old conservative "never put 100% in 1 asset class" theory will break down. Or will it? That is what I am trying to figure out. Our old friend Auspm might say that our fate is already sealed and it is inevitable. Others might look at the ingenuity of people and say that there will always be opportunities even in times of war, you just need to be smart. I look at my grandparents who fled a destroyed Europe on a one way 2 month boat trip to come to Australia not even knowing a word of English - this was a pretty 'all in' move. In poker and in life people often make ballsy 'all in' moves. This time there are no obvious new frontiers in terms of countries, the entire world is caught up in a dangerous game that is playing out on a daily basis now. I know that, at least financially, the status quo will not continue just rolling along as is - it is mathematically impossible. What will the showdown look like? What will you need to defend yourself? The best defense we have come up with so far is precious metals.
If you've got a low pile of chips then all in isn't so bad - diversification not only spreads your risks but lowers your returns. Should someone with a million dollars in investment capital go "all in" on silver? Probably not. Should someone with $5000? Why not.
I like your analogy That is the whole mind job though right? You won't get an email telling you. It is not that I am waiting for a perfect moment. I am not having a dilemma - I am happy to continue on as I am doing now which is basically following your "instead" scenario. I am prepared right now to lose my cash savings account tomorrow and not complain that 'wow I didn't see that coming.' It is more looking at the shift in psychology that it would take to finally go all in stakes.
I can't see myself ever going "all in". Investing in precious metals, for me, is about risk management. If I wanted to deliberately take on more risk, I'd do something crazy like rob a bank (or buy real estate in Sydney).
Plus i know friends of mine who in their late 20s and early thirties are about to borrow an incredible amount of money to buy a home in 2011. If that isn't going all-in on one asset class i don't know what is.
Thats not going all in. Taking your gold and buying real estate with it is going all in !!! Borrowing money that YOU DONT have and buying something like a house in 2011 is beyond going all in. its more like FOREVER IN !!!
I've never spent more than a few hours "learning" card or board games. I just couldn't see how it would expand, teach or develop me in any way. Life's too short.
Oh so true. My girlfriend and i have tried in vain to explain to them to just hold off but they are totally hellbent adamant on buying real estate this year. Heavily played out topic on this forum i know.
Now is definitely not the time to go all in. Hold on to your cash or buy a bit of Gold. Not too confident in Silver in the short term.
I wonder how many people out there are sitting on a pile of cash, just waiting for the right time to go 'all in'? In a bull market, anybody who did this isnt too bright... Dont buy now - wait so you can pay more next month or the month thereafter
You seem to be way too bullish on Silver IMO. Silver has gone up way too fast and the fact is you cant buy an oz for less than $50 from dealers so the price has to go to over $100 just to double your money. I'm not so sure Silver is the best investment one can make at this point in time. 6 months ago? 12 months ago? 2 years ago? Sure. But going all in right now is crazy I think. The risk is far greater than the reward.
Long term Im still bullish but who really knows what the top will be? A lot of people seem to have it in their head that Silver at $200,$300 or $500 is a sure thing when its not. If we dont get hyperinflation you can kiss those targets good buy. And if Silver gets to $100ish so soon, you can bet your whole stack, manufacturers will swtich to copper or some other metal faster than you can blink. I wouldnt be surprised if we see Silver back in the 30's for a while....so I cant recommend going all in at $44-$50 at this point since we have shot right up here much too fast. I could be wrong of course but you cant debate that Silver isnt as good a buy compared to when it was $5,$10, $15,$20,$25,$30...we are in a different market phase now and going all in at this price at this point in time, is a risk.
