Palladium Bubble?

Discussion in 'Platinum' started by TreasureHunter, Aug 13, 2013.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Palladium was 161 $ in December 2008. Now it's 740+ $. That would have been a frenetic investment... it's been trading rather horizontally for years.

    Is there any chance, possibility that it's in a bubble? Could this bubble pop anytime soon?
    I know there's no paper palladium, but what else is keeping it so high? What could make it cheaper?

    Opinions? :/
     
  2. Sargeant Argent

    Sargeant Argent New Member

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    Its not at an all time high and its.one of the rarest elements on earth it is also used in hydrogen fuel cell technology, catalytic converters, jewelry aka white gold, and many other tech applications. I thinnk it has a bright future as new technologies develop. But it could crash like ag and au easipy.
     
  3. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Can't a lot of things be called 'a bubble' compared to their 2008 price?
    Palladium hasn't come close to its all time 2001 price yet. The more so if inflation adjusted.
    The midpoint of Palladiums recent 2 year bull market 2009-2011 would be about $500. Current price of $740 doesn't look a bubble compared to that. Since then, as you say, sideways for 2 and a half years, not too frenetic.
    Little speculator interest, no clamour for it.

    While looking around for information about it I found three independent sources stating that Palladium is rarer than platinum. That's a new one for me.

    If demand does continue to increase for use in cars and other industrial processes the price could go anywhere if supply can't match the need. I think demand for Palladium would qualify as 'price inelastic' because of the small amount required per car say. If that's right and a catalytic converter contains around 4 grams of palladium, then that's only about .14oz. If Palladium went to $5000/oz that'd cost $700 for the Pd in one car - not a show stopper in a more inflationary environment.

    And what if Platinum goes ballistic along with gold and silver? Platinum and palladium vie for use in cat converters, if one gets more expensive the other gets preferred until it in turn becomes more expensive.

    Supply: South Africa 30%, enough said.
    Russia said to supply roughly 50% , what if they start playing games for better prices like they did with natural gas supply to East Europe?

    Palladium is 15 times more rare than platinum and 30 more rare than gold
    http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/palladium-it-may-again-become-most-precious-metal

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  4. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I said "frenetic", because... had I know it will rise above 740 $ in 2008, when it was 160 $... :(

    That was an explosive rise! Better than silver or gold!

    I know about the potential of palladium, but the current price is a bit "too spicy".

    I see the catalyst inside the catalytic converter is generally made out of precious metals. Is it an alloy?
    Is it pure palladium?
    I wonder how it could be removed...
     
  5. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  6. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Well, mate... I can "do a search", been doing it already... I thought you knew well.
     
  7. AngloSaxon

    AngloSaxon Active Member

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    I heard, and this is anecdotal only, that there is a wrecker in Parramatta (Sydney) who pays $30 for a Pl/Pd included, used catalytic converter.

    Can't confirm. I hope to never need to replace a cat in my car and hence have a used one to dispose of.
     
  8. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I know a place where they sell catalytic converters for 3 USD a piece. Most of them are broken, but I guess they don't know what's in it.

    Getting it out seems very hard.
     
  9. PAGAU

    PAGAU New Member

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    I missed the boat on Pd in 2009.

    The Palladium overall trend is...up since 1958.
    Hallmarked since 2010.
    Stockpile size unknown.

    From the graph, if you bought the dips every 10 years and sold out 3 years later you'd be laughing.


    [​IMG]
     
  10. PAGAU

    PAGAU New Member

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    If you ignore the 4 spikes then anywhere between $360 and $400 would be 'back up the truck' time.
    May take a few years but I'll be keeping an eye on it!
     
  11. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I still agree with Rick Rule Pd and Pt will lead this rally. I am not talking about the last few weeks piddling move, but the next major rally probably due to start in early 2014. According to Rule Pd and Pt will lead in that order, followed by Gold and Silver. A wear in the Middle East will simply bring that time frame forward.
     
  12. victoryocum

    victoryocum New Member

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    The industrial usage of palladium is the highest at 91% when compared to other precious metals namely gold, silver and platinum. Industries buy in bulk and usually more rapidly than individual buyers. The second part of the story is the supply issues, which is likely to be the catalyst of rise in palladium price.
     
  13. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^^^ I agree
     
  14. Rinchin

    Rinchin New Member

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    A war?
     
  15. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes a War (sorry a typo). The immediate war is averted but the next one is just around the corner. Debt and death.
     
  16. Rinchin

    Rinchin New Member

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    Haha I didnt see the typo. I was thinking War Lol isn't there already a couple going.
     
  17. aussiemate

    aussiemate New Member

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    I beleive Russia is the only country to have large resourses. Maybe it could be a sellers market for them.
     
  18. aussiemate

    aussiemate New Member

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    War usually drops the price of precious metals. Maybe because governments have to sell to finance the conflict. We all hope neither happens.
     
  19. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Russia's palladium mines are near or at depletion. Production and stockpiles from Russia are dropping. SA has viable mines with a production problem.
    This is no bubble. Last time I checked Bitcoin was not made of palladium.
     
  20. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    real beauty of Pd :)

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