[Opinion] Top 10 1oz Silver Pandas - The next step after "BIG3"

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by Austacker, Jan 6, 2012.

  1. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Okies... here are the mintages of 1989-2010 1oz Silver Bullion Pandas in a chart... figures are from Peter Anthony's Panda Book (I recommend anyone serious about Pandas should get this book. Maggie might have a few copies).

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_19892010pandas.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]

    If we restrict the chart to the rarest 13, we get some interesting results.

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_big13.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]

    I would label these the BIG3+10 due to estimated rarity.

    BIG3
    1. 1995MDST
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3282.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1995remd.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]
    2. 1999Serif
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3269.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3270.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]
    3. 2000Mirror
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3284.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3286.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]

    Rare3+10
    1. 1993LD
    2. 1998LD
    3. 1994SD
    4. 1999LD
    5. 1990SD
    6. 1995SD
    7. 1994LD
    8. 1993SD
    9. 2001D
    10. 1991SD

    <Pics coming>

    Now... there are some obvious pitfalls when using rarity as the only means of selection...For the following reasons:
    1. Mintage rarity doesn't automatically translate into high prices. (E.g. the 2000 Frosted has a higher mintage than the Rare3+10, yet it is more expensive than any of the Rare3+10).
    2. Mintage rarity doesn't automatically translate into high demand. (E.g. the 1992SD and 1992LD have very high mintages compared to the to Rare3+10, but they are in the top10 of expensive Panda coins, and are highly sought after).

    If I were to go with my gut feeling, my list would look something like this:

    Prices are RRP OMP estimates from APMEX and other places.

    BIG3
    1. 1995MDST $1995
    2. 2000Mirror $1500
    3. 1999Serif $900-$1000

    BIG3+10
    1. 2000Frosted $599
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_2005buf.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_2005bur.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]
    2. 1994LD $280
    3. 1998LD $320
    4. 1992LD $299
    5. 1999SD $290
    6. 1994SD $280
    7. 1993LD $280
    8. 1992SD $299
    9. 2001D $230
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3244.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_emhww.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]
    10. 1999LD $220

    The above list isn't constructed from mintage rarity, but rather from my own experiences in buying Pandas (plus Peter Anthony's Pricepedia), and is based heavily on current sell prices - which I think is a good indicator, that takes into consideration rarity and popularity.
     
  2. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    Interesting to see our opinions mostly match up with the 90s Pandas taking the bulk of the next 10 best.

    Seems like that's the general consensus, buy 1990s Pandas!
     
  3. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hey Fishball, yep, certainly seems to be the general consensus. The surviving BU estimates of the 90s Pandas are incredibly low.

    Combined together, there are probably fewer than 255,000 of the Top13 Pandas around. Considering the years that span from 1990 to 2001... that's not many Pandas at all... it's amazing that their prices are still relatively low.
     
  4. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

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    Ok a new consolidated list -

    M=Mintage rarity
    FB=Fishball's
    Ye= Yennus
    Au=Austacker

    FR = Frosted
    LD = Large Date
    SD = Small Date
    WS = With Serif (Font)
    ST = Short Twig
    MD = Micro Date

    BIG 3 -
    1. 1995 Micro Date Small Twig Panda 1oz Silver
    2. 1999 Large Date Serif Panda 1oz Silver
    3. 2000 Mirror Panda 1oz Silver

    - Top Ten -
    1. (M-1993LD) (FB-98LD) (Ye-2000FR) (Au-1993LD)
    2. (M-1998LD) (FB-2000F) (Ye-1994LD) (Au-1998LD)
    3. (M-1994SD) (FB-94LD) (Ye-1998LD) (Au-1994SD)
    4. (M-1999LD) (FB-93LD) (Ye-1992LD) (Au-1999LDWS)
    5. (M-1990SD) (FB-99SD) (Ye-1999SD) (Au-1990SD)
    6. (M-1995SD) (FB-99LD) (Ye-1994SD) (Au-1995SDST)
    7. (M-1994LD) (FB-93SD) (Ye-1993LD) (Au-1994LD)
    8. (M-1993SD) (FB-99LD) (Ye-1992SD) (Au-1993SD)
    9. (M-2001D) (FB-94SD) (Ye-2001D) (Au-1997LD)
    10. (M-1991SD) (FB-98SD) (Ye-1999LD) (Au-1991SD)
    +1 (FB-92LD) 2000 Panda Frosted

    Get in quick would be my advice, you can start to look at pricing and rarity and see if you see a bargain or two. Remember to keep us all informed and share the news.
     
  5. jc888888888

    jc888888888 New Member Silver Stacker

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    i have a friend who has about 15 1997 large dates ngc ms68 nice coins i notice they wshere sprinkled on the list any idea of value??
     
  6. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Wow Austacker!!! Fantastic compilation!!!

    I think I'm going to head back to the Hunt tomorrow to look for some of these :)
     
  7. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    Not much more than raw (65)
    Are a lot of 1997 around and ms68 dont is a investment grade in a common coin
     
  8. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    I have seen 1997 MS68 go for $90, 1989 MS68 for $100 and 1999 (forgot SD or LD) MS68 go for $260.

    I think those are similar to OMP values with around 10-20 dollars extra.

    It all depends on the buyers, currently there aren't that many buyers for 68 so it's a good time to buy them up at OMP prices I think.
     
  9. smokymcpot

    smokymcpot New Member

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  10. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    I have the 1994LD buy it in omp from yennus and after i grade it in ncs/ngc69 the cost is 175. (nice win in one)
    The 1994SD i dont saw in ms69 at my buy price off less than 200
     
  11. smokymcpot

    smokymcpot New Member

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    So,which is harder or rarer? SD or LD?
     
  12. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    I think LD but im a newbie
    ;-)
     
  13. smokymcpot

    smokymcpot New Member

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    Oh, but NGC and eBay say otherwise :O
     
  14. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    Saw pricepedia too, peter panda book and mr ge book.
    And you dont have the answer
    ;-)
    If i saw the 1994SD in ncs/ngc for less than 200 i will buy it.
     
  15. smokymcpot

    smokymcpot New Member

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    I think you can for MS68 ?
     
  16. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    I prefer 69 or 70. But if i saw in 68 a ncs/ngc for less than omp is a good choice.
     
  17. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    A couple of sleepers there from yennus, the '92 large and small dates (very hard to distinguish these, I look at the '2' skinny on small date before it finishes to tell them apart) and the 2001-D. Interesting pick the 01 considering the relatively large numbers, perhaps when the Chinese really take aim at Pandas this coin will be very popular.
     
  18. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yep, a couple of sleepers :)

    I'm a big fan of the 1993SD and LD too :)
     
  19. Justfishin

    Justfishin New Member

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    How could you not put the 2003 mirorred on there? ;)
     
  20. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm a bigger fan of the 1993 Frosted than the 2003 Mirrored :)

    [​IMG]
     

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