[Opinion] Top 10 1oz Silver Pandas - The next step after "BIG3"

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by Austacker, Jan 6, 2012.

  1. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

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    Seeing the thread on the BIG3 http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-273987.html#p273987

    I thought that for a lot of people, these may be out of reach. So what would be a good investment in some of the rarer but perhaps not so expensive. While hopefully giving you a good return on your coins. This is based on OMP and does not take slabbed grades into account. Keep it to 1oz Silver and I have not included commeratives/medals as that is another section again. Possibly a good post starter.

    One of the things that are always of interest are scheduled mintage numbers, versus actual mintages and then you have surviving mintages ( http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-273241.html#p273241 ) if you want to discuss that. For these reasons I think that some type of scale is needed and perhaps Mr Ges book may be trying to establish such a system as basic as it is at the moment, again how accurate is it, to what you see on the market. If you look at the 2000Mirror while rare, it is pretty easy to find one, where as the 1995, 1999 don't seem to be on the market as much ? Again some more experienced Panda buyers can add to these initial thoughts.

    I will try to start off with a list based pretty much on mintages. I have included these as I think some research is needed, rather than taking directly from someones work.

    Those of you that have looked for a particular year may rate this a little different. So I look forward to input from all of you.

    BIG 3 -
    1. 1995 Micro Date Small Twig Panda 1oz Silver
    2. 1999 Large Date Serif Panda 1oz Silver
    3. 2000 Mirror Panda 1oz Silver

    - Top Ten -
    4. 1993 Large Date 1oz Silver
    5. 1998 Large Date
    6. 1994 Small Date
    7. 1999 Large Date W/O Serif
    7. 1990 Small Date
    8. 1995 Small Date Short Twig
    9. 1994 Large Date
    10. 1993 Small Date
    11. 1997 Large Date
    12. 1991 Small Date
    13. 2000 Panda Frosted

    Again just OMP, keen to see what others think. Please tell me were you think I am wrong and why, or agree :) For those that want to divulge perhaps what you are looking for and maybe what you have, your call on that.
     
  2. alexisio

    alexisio New Member Silver Stacker

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    Could you put price estimates beside them if its no trouble
     
  3. jc888888888

    jc888888888 New Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi Austacker, thats a great list !! I have only been watching this board for a month or so and I have learned alot thanks guys.............. along side that list should be the long term buy and hold panda list /undervalued list ,for us guys without alot of money, :):)
    My vote 2001D :) and the unwanted step child of the Panda world the 2009 30th anniversary panda , I dont know why people dont embrace this coin................ I believe the mintage is 300,000 and you can still buy one for 65.00 or so 85/95 graded ms 69.........Am I missing something?
     
  4. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    2001D at 100 or less is a good buy but the mintage in mr ge's book is the same than 2001. The diference is the avaibilty outside china.
    All the pre 2000 are good buys. More cheap better.
    The 2009 30th is a good buy. but for conmemorative pandas have the largest mintage (300000 2009 versus 20.000 or 30.000 others)
    I prefer the 2009 normal because to complete a tao the people need it.
     
  5. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

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    For the most part, the anniversary and commemorative pandas do not have the same popularity as the main pandas. Notable exceptions are the expo coins that have gold plating (Beijing expo, aviation expo, etc).
     
  6. Chillidog

    Chillidog New Member Silver Stacker

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    Man its always the same. I only have one coin from the above list 1995 small date small twig. Better get yennus on the case. Still i love my little bear family.
     
  7. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    No idea about OMP but slabbed-wise I had trouble finding 90s Pandas in MS69 grade. Not that they're too rare but there just aren't any sellers.

    25Grizzlies considers the 1998 LD and the 2000 Frosted as the next two best coins followed by 94 LD and the 93 LD.

    I think the 2000 Frosted, 98 LD are also worthy of being 4th and 5th. The stated mintage on the 98 coins is not a reflection of the existing Panda coins left in the world. In 1998 the Chinese coin market was smashed and there were way less coins minted than planned due to the plop after 1997 Hong Kong return to China. Sellers on eBay are asking more for 98 LD MS69 than a frosted 2000 MS69 but I think this will be temporary until the glut of the frosted coins gets absorbed as it is pretty much a key date and as some of you may know, it is actually cheaper than some of the other 1990s Pandas.

    As to what comes next, I cannot say but I would put the 1999 SD/LD, 1993 LD, 1994 SD all right up there. I cannot find a 1994 SD at a reasonable price yet (in slab 69), the other three I have one of each at least though.

    The 1999 also follows the 1998 in their rarity far below the stated mintage, I would wager lots were melted down and they are rarer than we perceive them to be. The 1999 bear is also under the price of a Frosted 2000 which I think, is a bargain. Even a MS68 1999 can go for $275, which shows good strength of the coin's worth. The 1993 LD is a bit of a weird case, I am not sure if it's rare or just no sellers want to sell it. Either way, it is expensive and I can't find it for cheap and it costs more than Frosted 2000. The 1994 SD is rarer than the LD, at least the market demand for it tells me so. A 94 LD can sell for ~$200 whereas the SD can go over that by $50-100. Not sure if this is temporary or what but either way if you can find 94 LD & SD at same prices, you know you should go for the SD.

    Well there's 6 coins, now I just need 4 more.

    I guess the next 4 would be 98 SD, 92 LD, 91 SD and 95 LT.

    The reason for 98 is the same as above. The 92 LD & 91 SD are relatively easy to find and isn't too expensive but I still think it's rare. The 95 Large Twig Panda is not awesome like the micro date but I am finding sellers asking higher and higher prices for their 95 LT Pandas. Now I am not sure if they're trying to fish for sales or what but when a market is weak and they're raising prices it might be worth digging into (or find some new sellers :p).

    The 1990 surviving population seems to be higher than the subsequent years so that is why I didn't mention the 1990 Pandas even though their stated mintage may be similar.

    These are just some guesses really, I'm not Badon so DYOR :)
     
  8. Lightsview

    Lightsview Member

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    Hi guys, just wondering about the 1996 1oz Silver Panda. I understand they are quite expensive & the mintage numbers are unknown.

    Can somebody advise me the estimated mintage of the small date & large date panda variety, as well as the Pricepedia price? Thanks!
     
  9. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    Unknown mintage but relatively common, you can get them around $100 easily.

    The SD and LD don't seem to have any difference in prices at least on pricepedia and my scouring of eBay completed listings.
     
  10. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    In mr ge's book dont have the mintage number for the 1996 SD or LD
    But at 100 or less in omp i think is better buy than 2003/4/5/6
    Panda pricepedia is 100/65 both
    Usa/china ask prices
     
  11. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Wow! That is one really really cool list Austacker!

    Thanks!

    I'm about to go hunting with Grizzlies again... we will definitely be chatting about that list! :)

    Top Stuff!

    Yep, I'll see if I can try to make those top ten more available.
     
  12. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=4851.msg27558#msg27558

    Zing.
     
  13. Dandan

    Dandan New Member

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    What about the 1996 1oz silver Proof? That's a pretty rare bear. Commands a decent price too
     
  14. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

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    The addition of Fishball's and a little of 25grizzlies past wisdom. If you want to add your tag in the mix lets see what the variables are. FB just check I had your order the right way ?

    BIG 3 -
    1. 1995 Micro Date Small Twig Panda 1oz Silver
    2. 1999 Large Date Serif Panda 1oz Silver
    3. 2000 Mirror Panda 1oz Silver

    - Top Ten -
    4. (FB-98LD) 1993 Large Date 1oz Silver
    5. (FB-2000F) 1998 Large Date
    6. (FB-94LD) 1994 Small Date
    7. (FB-93LD) 1999 Large Date W/O Serif
    7. (FB-99SD) 1990 Small Date
    8. (FB-99LD) 1995 Small Date Short Twig
    9. (FB-93SD) 1994 Large Date
    10. (FB-99LD) 1993 Small Date
    11. (FB-94SD) 1997 Large Date
    12. (FB-98SD) 1991 Small Date
    13. (FB-92LD) 2000 Panda Frosted
     
  15. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

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    Just trying to keep to Bullion ATM. Certainly a good topic for other rare bears :)
     
  16. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

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    Careful taking my advice :) it may be good to see what out of these you do see for sale though. Not the be all, and all of availability but may give a good start.
     
  17. Dandan

    Dandan New Member

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    Ah, I should read more carefully lol
     
  18. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This really is a wonderful list. I'm normally so busy hunting for the BIG3, I've often missed looking at these ones... but you are quite correct to focus on these other important ones.

    I'll try and construct a bullion chart of the Pandas I think are the most valuable and will try to upload it later.

    Top stuff Panda fans!
     
  19. Lunardragon

    Lunardragon Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    May I suggest if there are pics attached to these ?
    I kept back n forth in the google image to see the pics :lol:
     
  20. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hahha.. okies... will try to do.. APMEX has a good collection of pics :)
     

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