[OPINION] 1995 Variations: 1995MDST, 1995SDST, 1995LDLT

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Jan 11, 2012.

  1. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,837
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    For those that haven't seen the different 1995 variations here they are:

    1995 Micro Date Small Twig (Mintage Est. < 4,000) RRP OMP: $2000 RRP NGC MS69: >$3000
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3298.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1995ob.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]
    Notice how the date fits within the steps.

    1995 Small Date Small Twig (Mintage Est. < 31,000) RRP OMP: $145 RRP NGC MS69: $226
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3303.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1995ob.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]
    Notice how the date doesn't fit within the steps.

    1995 Large Date Large Twig (Mintage Est < 65,000) RRP OMP: $125 RRP NGC MS69: $280
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3294.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3291.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]
    Notice the hugeness of the date compared with the other 2 variations.

    The 1995 Large Date Large Twig, despite being the most populace of the 1995 family, is still relatively rare. With an estimated population of <65,000. The possible returns on the 1995 LD LT are very promising.
    - A MS70 grade would likely fetch huge amounts of cash in excess of $1000. [1.4% chance]
    - A MS69 grade would likely fetch more than double your money at $280. [66.7% chance]
    - A MS68 grade would likely fetch more than $200, which is a pretty fantastic return on investment. [16.4%]
    - A MS67 grade would likely fetch around $100, which would give you back most of your initial capital. [6.2%]
    - Anything less than MS67... well, it's still silver and should still get more than spot... especially if slabbed. [9.2%]

    Using the above numbers, I'm likely to be stacking some 1995 LD LT, with the aim of getting them graded.

    Thanks for your interest!
     
  2. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2010
    Messages:
    2,870
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Location:
    The Wild West
    Interesting observation. However -

    [​IMG]

    What I am seeing is a bit of confusion, and that explains a lot of this market :D if you look at the NGC listing http://www.ngccoin.com/poplookup/Wo...YearMint=1995|CHINA&Submit=Get+Matching+Coins

    It shows 4 varieties, what we are interested in is the % for each. Using you guide as above we get -
    1995MDST - 4000
    1995SDST - 31000
    1995LDLT - 65000

    Looking at NGC data they list -
    1995LT Panda Large Twig (assume large date) - 621/65,000 = 0.95% GradedMS70 9/621 = 1.44% MS69 414/621 = 66% Chance so far
    http://www.ngccoin.com/poplookup/CensusDetail.aspx?PrintOrder=39233&IDCoins=408259

    1995ST Panda ST 23/ ? (4,000 ?) = .5% only 23 graded and these were MS69 what variety I do not know ? This must be the Micro Date ?
    http://www.ngccoin.com/poplookup/CensusDetail.aspx?PrintOrder=39234&IDCoins=408260

    1995STLD Panda Small Twig Large Date 409/ = (I cannot see this variety)
    http://www.ngccoin.com/poplookup/CensusDetail.aspx?PrintOrder=39235&IDCoins=408492

    1995STSD Panda Small Twig Small Date 234/31,000 = .75%

    Need to understand the details to make the right decision. I am more confused than ever ?
     
  3. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2011
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    Currently there are 2 different naming schemes floating around out there.

    large twig = large date
    small twig large date = small date
    small twig small date = micro date

    I think the first method (large twig, small twig large date, small twig small date) is actually less confusing and easier to distinguish, so that's what I use on the LBC list.

    When looking at NGC grading reports, you have to keep in mind that when they start grading coins, they don't know which or how many varieties there are. So the grading start reflect this learning as it happened.

    There were 2 1995 silver pandas that were graded as just 'panda.' These coins passed through the system before NGC realized there were varieties.

    Then they separated the coins into large twig and small twig.

    Another 23 small twig coins passed through the system before NGC noticed that the small twig variety has 2 subvarieties: small twig large date and small twig small date

    So the only stats we should be looking at are the large twig, small twig large date, and small twig small date.

    The 'panda' and 'panda small twig' lines are just miscellaneous coins that we don't have enough information about. So I just ignore them and focus on the stats that we DO know for certain.

    Hope that clears things up.
     
  4. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2010
    Messages:
    2,870
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Location:
    The Wild West
    Thanks Tamo, so working with that Data -

    I have come up with a few variables to play with. From what I can see your best % returns are in the fact the cheapest and most abundant. You also stand a higher chance of a MS70 grade to boot. The only catch is you need to sell 6.45 units to = the $ return of selling one 1995MDST. Probably a little too much data but nothing that isn't already available for free. This does not take into account actual man on the street availability etc... collectability and so on

    Best buy for slabbing

    1. 1995 LDLT
    2. 1995 SDST (Micro Date)
    3. 1995 SDLT

    [​IMG]

    This does not allocate a cost for freight and the cost of grading, which would change those numbers a lot, I may add that variable.
     
  5. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,837
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    Thanks Austacker and Tamo42.

    yep... me thinks the following.
    1st Line is for LargeDate LargeTwig.
    2nd Line is not in use any more.
    3rd Line is for Small Date Small Twig
    4th Line is for Micro Date Small Twig

    MS70 - 1.4%
    MS69 - 66.7%
    MS68 - 16.4%
    MS67 - 6.2%
    <MS67 - 9.2%
     
  6. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2010
    Messages:
    2,870
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Location:
    The Wild West
    Updated to include the extra cost, and the effort involved. Did not change other variables getting too much data.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2011
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    The only issue I see with your analysis, Austacker, is that large twig 95s aren't selling for $280 in MS 69 grade right now. There have been several sold in the $100-$130 range.

    So in this case, it'd probably be easier just to buy the large twigs in 69 grade as-is.
     
  8. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2010
    Messages:
    2,870
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Location:
    The Wild West
    Yup there is always a what if, that being the case, it would change the whole scenario around. What your scenario would show now is that due to demand there is a price reduction as there is too many in the market, and the numbers above would reflect this. If we get a couple of real world sales for analysis I can update the variables shown. Awesome :)
     
  9. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2011
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    Ask and you shall receive :)

    List Item # Item Conserved Grader Grade Amount Type Melt Ratio
    85 200646758512 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 135.83 auction 3.33
    101 200666167865 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 102.51 auction 3.08
    103 180747194915 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NCS NGC MS 69 163.50 auction 4.73
    103 120801273470 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 125.00 auction 3.62
    104 140636323159 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 243.00 auction 7.22
    105 250932282686 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 117.5 auction 3.73
    106 160685289658 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 137.08 auction 4.16
    106 220895849635 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig PCGS MS 69 154.5 auction 4.69
    108 120819486302 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 116.95 auction 3.61
    109 140653920074 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 114.5 auction 3.95
    109 250948273724 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 123.5 auction 4.26
    115 250963987797 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 127.75 auction 4.44
    116 130624595301 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 127.5 auction 4.29

    The formatting didn't come out quite right, but hopefully you get the idea. You can see that prices have been in the low $100s.
     
  10. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,837
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    Definitely I would be buying as many MS69s at $100 that I could get my hands on. That is less than OMP price!

    Yesterday someone sold an MS69 1995LDLT for $210 on Ebay... so I'll go with that stat for the time being.

    Suppose you could get 10x 1995LDLT OMP for $105each (e.g. Group Buy) [Total $1050]... hopefully you would get something like this:

    7x MS69 $210 (Yesterday's Ebay result)
    2x MS68 $105 (I valued this at 50% of a MS69)
    1x MS67 $55 (I valued this at 50% of a MS68)
    Total: $1626

    Gross Profit: $576 (55%)
    Minus expenses: (grading fee + postage) $265 + $100
    Net Profit: $211 (20%)

    A pretty sweet result :)
     
  11. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,837
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    Wow Tamo42! Thanks for the listings! Amazing research you do mate!
     
  12. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2010
    Messages:
    2,870
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Location:
    The Wild West
    Man you gotta teach me how you get that data so quick...

    Edit - I am getting a little sick of Yennus and Fishball beating my posts on the same thing by seconds lately :D
     
  13. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2011
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    Getting the data is simple. Write up lists of eBay sales for hours each day and then record the results over several months. Simple! ;)
     
  14. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,837
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    HAhahaha... Tamo42 only closes his spreadsheets for reboots I imagine.
     
  15. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2011
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    Pretty much
     
  16. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,837
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    Only problem with buying those graded Pandas via Ebay is that it is hard to invest in them in bulk (e.g. If I wanted 10x MS69s because I think they are presently undervalued)... I think it would be easier to buy a few OMP sheets and then shoot them off for grading all together... of course you would ideally want to inspect the OMP sheets personally... and you run the risk of getting poor grades.

    If you got the stats handy, how have the MS68s and MS67s of these been doing?

    Thanks heaps!
     
  17. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2011
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    Buying in bulk is indeed harder. Every once in a while you'll see a seller who is selling a few at a time.

    I don't track lower grades or OMP, sorry.
     
  18. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,837
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    Fair enough... I like to focus on the quality stuff also :) eheheh...

    Kinda interesting that a MS67 went for $144.24AUD yesterday.

    Whereas a MS68 went for $93.90AUD two days ago.

    I suppose people are returning from their holidays and such.
     
  19. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2011
    Messages:
    6,627
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Shin Sekai Yori
    That's because those sellers don't really ship overseas, which is stupid in my opinion since the US market is weak/limited.

    I've found some amazingly cheap coins from US sellers who didn't ship overseas on the listing but did when I asked them in a message on eBay.

    I think if you can get that LT-95 MS69 for < $150 delivered from US you're doing quite well (Australians).

    Most sellers want $200+ or more and a search of completed listings and current listings show there isn't that many up for sale if at all.
     
  20. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2011
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    Interesting point.

    I am constantly amazed at how narrow-minded some US sellers are. The fear of getting scammed is enormous for some people even though they would have eBay and PayPal as intermediaries for protection.
     

Share This Page