[OPINION] 1995 Variations: 1995MDST, 1995SDST, 1995LDLT

For those that haven't seen the different 1995 variations here they are:

1995 Micro Date Small Twig (Mintage Est. < 4,000) RRP OMP: $2000 RRP NGC MS69: >$3000
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3298.jpeg][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1995ob.jpeg][/imgz]
Notice how the date fits within the steps.

1995 Small Date Small Twig (Mintage Est. < 31,000) RRP OMP: $145 RRP NGC MS69: $226
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3303.jpeg][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1995ob.jpeg][/imgz]
Notice how the date doesn't fit within the steps.

1995 Large Date Large Twig (Mintage Est < 65,000) RRP OMP: $125 RRP NGC MS69: $280
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3294.jpeg][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_3291.jpeg][/imgz]
Notice the hugeness of the date compared with the other 2 variations.

The 1995 Large Date Large Twig, despite being the most populace of the 1995 family, is still relatively rare. With an estimated population of <65,000. The possible returns on the 1995 LD LT are very promising.
- A MS70 grade would likely fetch huge amounts of cash in excess of $1000. [1.4% chance]
- A MS69 grade would likely fetch more than double your money at $280. [66.7% chance]
- A MS68 grade would likely fetch more than $200, which is a pretty fantastic return on investment. [16.4%]
- A MS67 grade would likely fetch around $100, which would give you back most of your initial capital. [6.2%]
- Anything less than MS67... well, it's still silver and should still get more than spot... especially if slabbed. [9.2%]

Using the above numbers, I'm likely to be stacking some 1995 LD LT, with the aim of getting them graded.

Thanks for your interest!

 

Interesting observation. However -



What I am seeing is a bit of confusion, and that explains a lot of this market if you look at the NGC listing http://www.ngccoin.com/poplookup/Wo...YearMint=1995|CHINA&Submit=Get+Matching+Coins

It shows 4 varieties, what we are interested in is the % for each. Using you guide as above we get -
1995MDST - 4000
1995SDST - 31000
1995LDLT - 65000

Looking at NGC data they list -
1995LT Panda Large Twig (assume large date) - 621/65,000 = 0.95% GradedMS70 9/621 = 1.44% MS69 414/621 = 66% Chance so far
http://www.ngccoin.com/poplookup/CensusDetail.aspx?PrintOrder=39233&IDCoins=408259

1995ST Panda ST 23/ ? (4,000 ?) = .5% only 23 graded and these were MS69 what variety I do not know ? This must be the Micro Date ?
http://www.ngccoin.com/poplookup/CensusDetail.aspx?PrintOrder=39234&IDCoins=408260

1995STLD Panda Small Twig Large Date 409/ = (I cannot see this variety)
http://www.ngccoin.com/poplookup/CensusDetail.aspx?PrintOrder=39235&IDCoins=408492

1995STSD Panda Small Twig Small Date 234/31,000 = .75%

Need to understand the details to make the right decision. I am more confused than ever ?

 

Currently there are 2 different naming schemes floating around out there.

large twig = large date
small twig large date = small date
small twig small date = micro date

I think the first method (large twig, small twig large date, small twig small date) is actually less confusing and easier to distinguish, so that's what I use on the LBC list.

When looking at NGC grading reports, you have to keep in mind that when they start grading coins, they don't know which or how many varieties there are. So the grading start reflect this learning as it happened.

There were 2 1995 silver pandas that were graded as just 'panda.' These coins passed through the system before NGC realized there were varieties.

Then they separated the coins into large twig and small twig.

Another 23 small twig coins passed through the system before NGC noticed that the small twig variety has 2 subvarieties: small twig large date and small twig small date

So the only stats we should be looking at are the large twig, small twig large date, and small twig small date.

The 'panda' and 'panda small twig' lines are just miscellaneous coins that we don't have enough information about. So I just ignore them and focus on the stats that we DO know for certain.

Hope that clears things up.

 

Thanks Tamo, so working with that Data -

I have come up with a few variables to play with. From what I can see your best % returns are in the fact the cheapest and most abundant. You also stand a higher chance of a MS70 grade to boot. The only catch is you need to sell 6.45 units to = the $ return of selling one 1995MDST. Probably a little too much data but nothing that isn't already available for free. This does not take into account actual man on the street availability etc... collectability and so on

Best buy for slabbing

1. 1995 LDLT
2. 1995 SDST (Micro Date)
3. 1995 SDLT



This does not allocate a cost for freight and the cost of grading, which would change those numbers a lot, I may add that variable.

 

Thanks Austacker and Tamo42.

yep... me thinks the following.
1st Line is for LargeDate LargeTwig.
2nd Line is not in use any more.
3rd Line is for Small Date Small Twig
4th Line is for Micro Date Small Twig

MS70 - 1.4%
MS69 - 66.7%
MS68 - 16.4%
MS67 - 6.2%
<MS67 - 9.2%

 

Updated to include the extra cost, and the effort involved. Did not change other variables getting too much data.

 

The only issue I see with your analysis, Austacker, is that large twig 95s aren't selling for $280 in MS 69 grade right now. There have been several sold in the $100-$130 range.

So in this case, it'd probably be easier just to buy the large twigs in 69 grade as-is.

 

Yup there is always a what if, that being the case, it would change the whole scenario around. What your scenario would show now is that due to demand there is a price reduction as there is too many in the market, and the numbers above would reflect this. If we get a couple of real world sales for analysis I can update the variables shown. Awesome

 

Ask and you shall receive

List Item # Item Conserved Grader Grade Amount Type Melt Ratio
85 200646758512 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 135.83 auction 3.33
101 200666167865 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 102.51 auction 3.08
103 180747194915 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NCS NGC MS 69 163.50 auction 4.73
103 120801273470 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 125.00 auction 3.62
104 140636323159 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 243.00 auction 7.22
105 250932282686 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 117.5 auction 3.73
106 160685289658 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 137.08 auction 4.16
106 220895849635 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig PCGS MS 69 154.5 auction 4.69
108 120819486302 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 116.95 auction 3.61
109 140653920074 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 114.5 auction 3.95
109 250948273724 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 123.5 auction 4.26
115 250963987797 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 127.75 auction 4.44
116 130624595301 1995 1 oz silver panda large twig NGC MS 69 127.5 auction 4.29

The formatting didn't come out quite right, but hopefully you get the idea. You can see that prices have been in the low $100s.

 

Definitely I would be buying as many MS69s at $100 that I could get my hands on. That is less than OMP price!

Yesterday someone sold an MS69 1995LDLT for $210 on Ebay... so I'll go with that stat for the time being.

Suppose you could get 10x 1995LDLT OMP for $105each (e.g. Group Buy) [Total $1050]... hopefully you would get something like this:

7x MS69 $210 (Yesterday's Ebay result)
2x MS68 $105 (I valued this at 50% of a MS69)
1x MS67 $55 (I valued this at 50% of a MS68)
Total: $1626

Gross Profit: $576 (55%)
Minus expenses: (grading fee + postage) $265 + $100
Net Profit: $211 (20%)

A pretty sweet result

 

Wow Tamo42! Thanks for the listings! Amazing research you do mate!

 

Man you gotta teach me how you get that data so quick...

Edit - I am getting a little sick of Yennus and Fishball beating my posts on the same thing by seconds lately

 

Getting the data is simple. Write up lists of eBay sales for hours each day and then record the results over several months. Simple!

 

HAhahaha... Tamo42 only closes his spreadsheets for reboots I imagine.

 

Pretty much

 

Only problem with buying those graded Pandas via Ebay is that it is hard to invest in them in bulk (e.g. If I wanted 10x MS69s because I think they are presently undervalued)... I think it would be easier to buy a few OMP sheets and then shoot them off for grading all together... of course you would ideally want to inspect the OMP sheets personally... and you run the risk of getting poor grades.

If you got the stats handy, how have the MS68s and MS67s of these been doing?

Thanks heaps!

 

Buying in bulk is indeed harder. Every once in a while you'll see a seller who is selling a few at a time.

I don't track lower grades or OMP, sorry.

 

Fair enough... I like to focus on the quality stuff also eheheh...

Kinda interesting that a MS67 went for $144.24AUD yesterday.

Whereas a MS68 went for $93.90AUD two days ago.

I suppose people are returning from their holidays and such.

 

That's because those sellers don't really ship overseas, which is stupid in my opinion since the US market is weak/limited.

I've found some amazingly cheap coins from US sellers who didn't ship overseas on the listing but did when I asked them in a message on eBay.

I think if you can get that LT-95 MS69 for < $150 delivered from US you're doing quite well (Australians).

Most sellers want $200+ or more and a search of completed listings and current listings show there isn't that many up for sale if at all.

 

Interesting point.

I am constantly amazed at how narrow-minded some US sellers are. The fear of getting scammed is enormous for some people even though they would have eBay and PayPal as intermediaries for protection.