I read something about JPM getting involved with the cabon tax about 18 months ago, but can't for the life of me remember where
We're still better placed than many other Western counties for a second global financial crisis, but the fact that we essentially missed the last one has made us complacent. "Hey, we've got valuable dirt! She'll be right!" If every other sector of the economy had shed jobs at the same rate that the mining industry was laying people off during the GFC we'd have had 15%+ unemployment. What saved us from a deep recession was the government stimulus spending. Every credible economist in the world agrees, including the "dissident" economists like Steve Keen. The fact that China also rolled out a massive stimulus program meant they could keep buying our dirt and our stimulus program meant we could keep selling it to them. It was a textbook case of Keynesian counter-cyclical spending and it worked brilliantly - heaps of money flowed out into the economy and kept it from seizing up. That fact that a some of it didn't buy the best value that it could have didn't matter because even badly spent money went into circulation and keeping cash flowing was all that was really important at the time. The government of the day did very well to implement the stimulus program quickly and effectively. What they did incredibly, incredibly badly was educating the Australian public about what was happening, why it was happening and how they were responding to it. The danger now is that since very few people here are any wiser about the global financial situation because we were insulated from the worst of the GFC, we're still just as likely to believe whatever crap either the government or the opposition comes up with in their petty politicking and not look at the real issues that are likely to affect us. Our ignorance is our greatest weakness.
The ALP tried to prevent the inevitable. A false economy was inflated and now it is about to pop. Instead of letting it pop the first time now it is going to pop even bigger. It is like curing a hangover by drinking more beer. It will eventually happen and the longer it is put off the worse it is. I am sure a few of us here have tried it.
The alternative government the last time hard labour was in took 10 years to pay back 96 billion that Keating et al ran up. This time the debt will be closer to 300 billion and with any luck the boys in blue will have 30 years in office to pay back the debt. At the moment the labour unions true to form are committing extortion on the Mining and LPG Gas companies with their "fair work" mates cheering them on. I look forward to the "alternative" government taking the knife to "fair work lackies and castrating the labour movement. You have had your 4 years to stuff the economy time to step aside. As for the JP Morgan clown where was his prediction in 2007 when I and many other business people were frantically getting ready for the financial crisis a year before it hit. Kind Regards non recourse
(shiney! shakes his head in disbelief and mutters to himself something about stimulus packages not helping other countries and wonders why it worked its miracle here, and then reminds himself Big AD posted that comment) :/ If that happens we will never speak again. Diablo Dimon was out here last year - met with the Wicked Witch of the South.
LOL :lol: We were set up well by previous governments (on both sides of politics) and the government at the time played their hand very neatly. Other governments' stimulus spending was largely either too little or too late or both because, like we are at the moment, they were cruising along happily in their wonderful free market bubble and couldn't believe a 70 year old macroeconomic theory about mixed economies could still be relevant in the new economic paradigm of today. Coz, you know, it's different this time. That's what the world was thinking in 2007 and it's what most of Australia is thinking now. But hey, Australia is a lucky country, run by second-rate people who share its luck.
That I will agree with I still can't see how if we crash and burn it will be worse for us than other countries whose debt/GDP % are getting close to or exceeding 100%.
We don't know how to do much except sell dirt to the Chinese. Other countries have to actually do useful and innovative things to make a buck.
Yep, but they're up the shit more than us. They have huge, unmanageable debt. They need to be innovative. We got the dirt.
Big A.D. obviously didn't click the link I put up for him to mises.org he still thinks that this Keynsian rubbish works. Pior's comment on the last page was almost perfect.
Many sectors have suffered. We've become more dependent on mining than ever. And the commodities boom is very late in the game now. We're just awaiting the final parabolic spike. Short-term gains for greater long-term pain. Classic politics. The average person's balance sheet can't be expanded indefinitely. We need to get back to capitalism, not these govt encouraged credit-fueled booms and busts. Haha, ignorance is the greatest asset we have from our leaders perspective. Why would they want the majority to know and understand what's really going on? They would probably be more than a little upset and might not be herded around so easily.
Our government's balance sheet is certainly in better shape than these countries, I think, mainly because of the huge tax rates we have over here. Why borrow huge amounts of money when the people are happy to give you huge amounts of money for the privilege of living in 'straya. The propaganda works much better here than many countries. Most Aussies are in a daze. Govt might be OK, but the average person has been taking on massive amounts of debt. Just look at the M3 figure over the last 10 years. Or the real estate section in the newspaper and start adding up those prices. We need to produce something and if the mining boom ends, what else have we got? We've saturated the country with property (developers much more keen to build with higher prices) so that won't be as profitable either. Ultimately, govt get's it's taxes from all these activities, so if govt taxes start to drop off, you'll probably see the govt balance sheet expand in a hurry. But what if money becomes harder to borrow worldwide?
Well Qld and NSW are sorting out that little problem and borrowing massively. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...comes-under-fire/story-e6frgczx-1226244932453 As is my local council, with debt upwards of $200 million. http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/story/2011/12/26/200-million-debt-debate-rockhampton-council/ Let's use what we've got. Let's use what has made many countries financially strong in the past. Mining and primary industry. These 2 industries have powered many economies. We don't have a manufacturing industry any more and probably never will because of labour costs. But there is nothing wrong in basing your economy on food and minerals, and then trying to diversify from there. The mining boom will end, but mining won't, and until the boom ends there is very little we can do. We need to use the private and public wealth we are earning at the moment wisely. And sadly, it's being wasted to a great degree privately and most definitely squandered at a public level. Qld has had 3 mining booms in the last 20 odd years, and what have we got to show for it? Sweet FA. Now why would JPM be making a comment about Australia? In order to reinforce the reserve bank's objectives and ensure the public are blindly supportive of those manipulative objectives.
aww that's a bit harsh - we've got a lovely new sports stadium in Brisbane, and there's the tunnel... Seriously though, the QLD Gov't couldn't run a chook raffle! Our local council has been racking up debt like crazy as well. In recent years a few new CEO's questioned this, but it didn't take long for the councillors to run those cheeky buggers out if town!
