Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    21.1%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    38.0%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    23.9%
  4. It's not a bubble

    16.9%
  1. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    A bull market like that little notch that goes up into complacency? Cuz thats what im seeing.
    All the major indices are forming that exact thing.

    Psychology-of-Market-Cycles.jpg
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2023
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  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm thinking complacency is well behind us. Disbelief?

    BTCUSDT_2023-03-07_09-31-17.png
     
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  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    OT but what about this one? It's pretty scary. Puts @Davros10's call into perspective:

    XAGUSD_2023-03-07_09-38-53.png
     
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  4. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    A right shoulder and descending channel could be considered those times as well i guess.
    Not selling when you had the second chance in general or not seeing the pattern. Happens all the time.

    Probably depends on whether someone is investing or trading i suppose. They may not even care like Cathy Wood or Deep Pockets Cuban!
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2023
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  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Left shoulder of an inverse H&S on the silver chart???
     
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  6. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yeah could be.
     
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  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Lol, could be anything I want to believe it could be. :p
     
  8. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'd reckon that both the gold/silver markets and stocks have been in synch in a downtrend since around Dec/Jan 21/22. A 1 2 pattern on a larger timeline and now a smaller 1 2 in the larger 3rd. It means we are rolling over the top of the complacency shoulder of the chart and heading into a 3rd of 3rd wave, which is often swift and dramatic, down through recognition of a major shift in sentiment ( anxiety, denial, panic, capitulation, anger). I don't necessarily want this to be the case, but wanting won't hold it back, nor will ignoring.

    If I was to characterize cryptos according to the chart I'd reckon we're just passing one of the disbelief points, but I'm not sure which one. I'd like to believe it's the one on the left, but the desire for something to be doesn't make for a great trading strategy.

    I don't know how to make sense of the discrepancy between the patterns of the metals and stocks compared to crypto, or in the service I subscribe to that sees the Australian stock market and housing prices about to rise whilst the US market craters.

    One thing about Elliott Waves is that they are a robust fractal meaning that the pattern plays out at multiple time scales, so for example it is possible to see a 5 wave pattern since around the birth of Christ (extrapolating from records of grain prices and the like), leading to a 4th wave down in the 1700's and a subsequent 5th wave since. In that 5th wave the great depression was a 4th wave and we've had a 5th wave up since then that finished in Dec 2021. It means that as the current correction is of one degree higher than the last (the great depression) it will be of a commensurate level greater.

    My advice if this is the case? Cash is king, with the proviso that the coming correction may well be a bank killing one (Silvergate?). That cash could be very valuable for silver purchases in around 12-18 months if the market bottoms in the low teens or sub $10. Abd even better if AUD goes to $1.10. Why silver rather than gold? In the next move gold would likely double or triple, whilst the equivalent move in silver could be a 10x move.
     
  9. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I agree with all that except im expecting btc to drop along with the markets in the next big plunge, which would drag all air coins down with it.
    I think cryptos are rolling over that same complacency shoulder but time will tell all.

    Either way its been crazy to watch it all in action. Slow motion!
     
  10. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    a lot of coins are already down 70,80, or 90% of ATH's. If they are sitting on that complacency shoulder you'd reckon there'd have to ne a whole lot of delisting coming up.
     
  11. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yeah i think theres still more room down and more carnage to come all around in every market. None of the effects of tightening have really kicked in yet and i doubt Powell will pause or ease any time soon.
    I think theres still a big sell off coming and then with other collapses on the side will add up.
    Just the h and s alone will take it down to 17 or 18k.
     
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  12. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    It looks to me that the "disbelief" at either end are the same point in the market cycle, if you're going long then it would be the time to consider opening a small position.
     
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  13. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Powell must have said something hawkish today but i missed it.
    Talking is about all it takes.
     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    He mentioned that more hikes will be necessary.

    Bond market now pricing in a 50 bps rate rise in March. :eek:

    Screen Shot 2023-03-08 at 8.38.44 am.png
     
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  15. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If we get another down day like today all the major indices will drop below the upward channel they are in.
    Not looking good and wouldnt take much to set it off.
     
  16. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Or a huge one. Buy when there's blood in the streets.
     
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  17. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    They are circling the drain right now.
     
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  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I prefer dabbling until I see some evidence of prices holding in my buy zones. It's too early for me for BTC or ETH for example. I opened a small position with Matic recently. I may add to that small position if the price breaks through the $1.45 - $1.50 zone.
     
  19. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Get your $1 Matic now! Its going on sale!
     
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  20. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I wouldn't buy into the falling price, wait to see if it rebounds off this support/resistance zone. It's not on sale if the price goes lower.

    MATICUSD_2023-03-10_07-53-57.png
     
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