Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    22.1%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    37.5%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    24.3%
  4. It's not a bubble

    16.2%
  1. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If it all crashes, there's always an alternative plan... :cool:

    "
    Before moving to Restoration Island he was leading a high flying city life in Sydney, living in a property overlooking the Harbour with his wife and two children.

    But after the infamous Black Tuesday event in 1987, the businessman lost his wealth and the bank foreclosed on his property with his wife leaving him shortly after.
    "

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...sheen-makes-sad-confession-gave-highlife.html

    Screen Shot 2022-06-20 at 8.51.14 pm.png
     
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  2. Shlomo Goldberg

    Shlomo Goldberg Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So was the silver lining the missus leaving?
     
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  3. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Solend, built on the Solana blockchain tried to gain control of a “whale” account which it said was putting the Solano protocol at risk.

    Even in Crypto world this is becoming bazarre to think a group of insiders wakes up and considers lets change the rules on one account? It was voted down but gees
     
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  4. Polar.bear.Stacker

    Polar.bear.Stacker Well-Known Member

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    Can this thread be renamed to monitoring the crypto winter?
     
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  5. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Will Bitcoin survive or will it go to zero like Peter Schiff says?

    I wasn't expecting it to go this low in such a short amount of time. Could go to 10 k, but in this rhythm even to 5-6 k.
     
  6. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I don't thin the thread has tools to allow that.
     
  7. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    What the current BTC valuation says about BTC

    BTC is not a hedge against inflation
    BTC is not digital gold
    BTC is a speculative risk on asset

    The value of BTC is somewhere between $1 to $X all dictated with how much money is swooshing around in the market and as long as BTC stays de-centralised and unregulated, it has proven its value to those that value decentralisation.

    The investment value is derived because it is de-centralised and unregulated but if regulated and in essence centralised what value does BTC represent as it is not a substitute for Fiat, will it mean it will have to prove its value again?

    Let's not confuse BTC (and few others) with with generic Crypto coins also known as S#it coins they are simply s#it coins they don't even have a speculative value.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2022
  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Now putting aside my "First World Glasses" and the fact that the fundamentals haven't changed and that I can't see how it's possible to regulate P2P platforms, BTC will remain decentralised in the manner in which it was first designed and will retain its value as a substitute to fiat as a means to transact in large parts of the world. The figures below are dated unfortunately but that's what you get with surveys that come out every few months/annually:

    P2P platforms retain the largest share of transactions in the retail market:

    Screen Shot 2022-06-22 at 6.32.33 pm.png


    The Crypto Adoption Index top 20 countries are by-and-large emerging markets:

    Screen Shot 2022-06-22 at 6.41.01 pm.png

    From: https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2021-global-crypto-adoption-index/



    Crypto adoption is strongly correlated to perceptions of government corruption:

    Screen Shot 2022-06-22 at 6.44.20 pm.png

    From: https://www.finder.com/finder-cryptocurrency-adoption-index


    In the absence of access to alternatives in emerging markets, I'm thinking the price crash (and high inflation) will have less impact on perceptions of value than in the eyes of those in developed markets.
     
  9. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    expectationsvsreality-e1633536403223.jpg
     
  10. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    @serial yes, it must seem confusing.

    Edit to add: but thanks for turning up in the crypto thread. Again. ;)
     
  11. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I think it's precisely because of those African, Latin American, Russian and SE Asian markets that Bitcoin will recover (at least a bit), so I am not sure this is a "collapse to zero".
    If the dollar is holding on, why couldn't Bitcoin?

    Just look back, in 2018 it crashed from 18+ k to 3.6 k. That's a 5x difference (roughly, just by looking at the charts). Check back to see all those previous bubbles on the chart. It ALWAYS recovered.

    What's ugly now is the sheer high price. But perhaps Michael Saylor and other permabulls are right: it can go much higher. So, I can envision a 100 k, 500 k, possibly even a 1 million peak, if this recovers.

    Because Bitcoin has no inflation and part of it has already gotten lots, it needs to expand IN PRICE, because it can't do that in NUMBERS.

    And yes, I think bigger bucks will be made on alt coins during the next bullish wave/uptrend. I think that stronger power (more wide-spread infrastructure, wider adoption...) will be required in order for the market to recover.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2022
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  12. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    BTC is a great indicater of "poor" lower income class, "poor" middle income class and "poor" upper income class.

    What defines "poor" ie only few paychecks in liquid savings.

    When these people are feeling good, the times are very good, I alluded to this many time, am I correct maybe maybe not, but one thing for sure when the "poor class" is worried risk on assets are no go.

    In the context I am writing a lower income class is not automactically "poor" many do have decent saving by skimping and stretching their budget.
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2022
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  13. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  14. wallabe

    wallabe New Member

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    the problem I have is buying crypto in the first place. ive been using this guide https://medium.com/@buycryptocurren...cy-without-identification-online-4caa6d3dab80 its great for buying crypto without identification which im sharing because most people dont want to give their id to companies they dont know. with gold im holding off for now and seeing where things end up because i had a bad experience with my last purchase.
     
  15. wallabe

    wallabe New Member

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    how do you delete posts here/.
     
  16. wallabe

    wallabe New Member

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    sugar i accidently posted twice and cant find where to delete posts.
     
  17. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  18. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Could it be that the stock markets will make a massive collapse soon (more and more about "imminent crash" in the mainstream media - yeah, it's been said for many years, but not in the mainstream toilet paper news media) and, after/during the collapse, many will move their wealth into crypto?

    I believe that all bubbles interconnect and wealth transfers have always been moving like slippery slugs from one asset/market to the other.
    (people "panic move" their funds as it goes downwards into other assets/markets)

    So, because crypto is DOWN and gold is UP: I think if the stock market goes down the c*nt, crypto could start climbing and gold could climb even higher.

    What do you think?
     
  19. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Golden opportunity.

    Risk free 39% return from USDD.

    Yes its a stable coin, but no its not like Luna. Luna failed because it was only giving 20% RISK FREE return USDD is offering safer 40%.

    USDD is over capitalised by the founder and owns 94% of USDD all coins printed.

    No its not a Ponszi, allegations of fraud and pending prosescution from multiple countries with unrelated insider trading rumours all FAKE NEWS

    Trust the Crypto experts, Justin have been touted as brilliant by the same independent Coin media and experts that feted Kwan

    If you also own Tron consider your position

    TPyjyZfsYaXStgz2NmAraF1uZcMtkgNan5
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2022
  20. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Don’t forget cash. As stackers we think cash is trash, but as a short term solution cash is king.
    I’d say the smart money has already sold out and is in no hurry to move to the next asset until the dust has settled.
     

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