Marc Faber preditions (interview): many things came true

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Nov 23, 2019.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Incredibly realistic predictions made by Marc Faber (Swiss investor). I believe the interview is from 2016:
     
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  2. Silverling

    Silverling Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Gold to $5,000 by 2020 is incorrect.

    USA in recession by 2020 is incorrect.

    There is only 5 weeks to go for these predictions to come true. Some of his other comments about Brexit, China, Trump and Hillary were pretty close though.
     
  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ^
    I can't recall Marc Faber saying gold will actually hit 5,000 $ by 2020. He usually says it's a probability. He's very careful.

    What is interesting is what he said about the US recession happening "by 2020": 100% probability. The US economy is "on the edge" right now. It might as well get slammed next year.

    He does make interesting points. Recession indeed is a "resting period", when the economy is resting. It's a market mecanism that's required for a healthy economy. Recession is necessary to "clean out the system".

    Anyway, I wanted to share the video, because his comments are interesting and this interview is a different kind of interview (as opposed to other ones).

    He believes the EU could split/break up. Well, there's BREXIT.

    I'm so sick of hearing about it. I don't care, they should just do it one way or the other. It's disgusting to watch all the push-pull idiotism. People have gotten rid of communism in Eastern Europe in a matter of months. And that was a harder nut to crack.

    The UK can't decide whether to pull its pants up or down :D
     
  4. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The trouble is the people voted for something the elite don't want. Rather than fulfill the people's will, they try to dissuade it by trying for another vote.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2019
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  5. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    is the bet on the pony tail still on ?
     
  6. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I've been following Marc Faber for a couple of years. While l like his straightforward character, he is not too good at timing, same as Jim rogers. His predictions might only work over a 20 year period, but in today's world, timing is everything, no one is going to wait 20 years for the dollar to die, neither is anyone going to wait 20 years for india to rise.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-doomsayer-marc-faber-gold-will-rally-30-in-2015-2015-01-13
     
  7. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ^
    I've been following both of them and even read some of Jim Rogers' books. Faber seems very articulated and more in-theme when it comes to Europe, while Jim Rogers understands a lot about China and Asia.

    No-one is going to wait for anything, obviously. And the world/economy/society doesn't follow a uniform path. Things can drag on or speed up very fast, trends can change.

    I've personally studied China's economy and social problems and I see China's slowdown a major threat to their position as a major economic/political power.

    They're highly dependent upon others and they're probably the most "trapped" major power (regionally, as well as in terms of scarce natural resources etc.). This is why they are "stretching", extending - the "Belt and Road" initiative and many others are helping China cope with possible "implosion" (because they're so heavily export-oriented and because of they're rising production costs as a result of rising life quality/income, they have to rethink their economic strategy).

    It's odd how the BRICs have almost fallen apart and declined. It seems to be "the next trend" back in 2011-2013, but then economic problems followed (I'm thinking of Brazil's crisis, then China's slowdown).

    Yet, in the long term the US is going deeper, so are countries like the UK, France. Europe could rise, but the US is making sure they keep everyone divided and Europeans are known for "eating each other alive" (too much rivalry and conflicting interests).

    What I think is interesting: rising regional economies, emerging regional powers like Malaysia, Turkey, etc. While some great economies will slump, I think the small-to-medium powers could gain more strength.
     
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  8. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    k
    Yes, this is the Trump strategy, withdrawing the US and allow the rise of regional powers such as Turkey, Russia, Poland, North Korea, Iran, etc. Once you have many emerging powers all over the world, America will no longer be the number one enemy. I believe the switch can come faster than many can imagine, before the end of 2030.

    If you look at the torching of Iran's embassy in Iraq by no less than Iraqi Shiite militias, you know this strategy is working.

    The world is going to become more chaotic as the Deep state "empire" crumbles and regional "warlords" rise.

    When the world is chaotic and outright war is impossible because of nukes and too many enemies, medium sized countries have the advantage of having a smaller population to feed and less enemies to deal with due to smaller borders. Countries with no nearby enemies due to being in the middle of oceans, e.g. Australia and New Zealand will also have a strategic advantage.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2019
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  9. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    What you are saying is very interesting. Do you think this is really a "Trump strategy"?

    They would want an "atomized" world in which regional powers emerge (obviously they'd play them out against each other)?

    Nevertheless, the multipolar world is emerging. Nor the EU, nor the US or Nato, perhaps not even the IMF will play such a dominant world.
    I'm quite worried about what "multipolar" means. It could be a "balkanization" both socially and economically (like former Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union etc. scenarios) and that sadly would implicate some conflicts as well. Let's hope not and that things will go smoothly.

    I hope that at least the civilized part of the world stays sane and countries will strive to collaborate with each other, even if the EU falls apart.

    I asked you whether you really think it's the US' (or Trump's) interest to break up the world into smaller pieces, because I'd think the US would normally want to dominate every millimeter of the planet. Why would they prefer a world in which regional powers rise (like Turkey, Germany, Japan, Australia, Brazil etc.)?

    Wouldn't the US want to have the entire "cake"? Why slice it up? :D
     
  10. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Trump did lure Russia and Turkey into Syria against the wishes of both democrats and republicans?

    I think this is inevitable. The deep state is already corrupted beyond cure and is crumbling along with their economic prowess. In face of such a situation, withdrawal is the only solution. At least you can still be the most powerful warlord and beacon of hope in a messy multi-polar world. This is the best outcome in my opinion.
     
  11. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Recently many car manufacturers have been announcing layoffs. I think they are not doing enough. The entire car industry is going to be destroyed by electric cars, Uber and all those self driving technology. Just like the watch industry is being destroyed as we speak. The amount of jobs lost is going to be insane.
     
  12. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Its a bailout business so they will probably get govt money again. Too big to fail remember?
     
  13. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    We could be in recession now and not know it yet. Of course they can change whatever numbers they want and keep on pumping it too. Reality doesnt seem to matter anymore in politics.
     
  14. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Maybe cleaning up the planet can become a new industry to replace the dead ones.
     
  15. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    What I see is that they're moving their factories. Like German manufacturers BMW and Mercedes created new factories in Hungary, recently.

    BMW is building a new large factory in China, where together with a major Chinese car maker, they will build small electric cars.

    Basically, the automotive industry is collapsing in the West, but moving to eastern countries (some moved to Turkey, others to China, Thailand).

    2 more tremendous challenges that I see:
    - what will happen to the real estate industry: ghost towns are appearing even in Europe (Spain, even Eastern Europe), because they overbuilt, while the population is decreasing and the old house blocks (like the communist blocks in Eastern Europe) are still in place; people can't afford to buy new homes, so some are even giving up - therefore they rent... Airbnb could mean to the real estate market what Uber means to taxi companies
    - automation: it's apocalyptic to most of us, but we will be replaced by machines; there won't be enough jobs for people merely because almost everything is becoming more automatized (marketing, agriculture, car industry, food industry, even fast food restaurants, self-driving metros)...
     
  16. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    In the us we have industry but the buying has slowed and supply is backing up. That and record car loan defaults doesnt look good.
    People are getting tapped out for funds.
     
  17. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    There are 5 top industries in the use:
    1. the speculative asset industry: bonds, treasuries, shares, cryptos, anything not worth the paper it's printed (or not printed) on...
    2. the online ".com" industry: Facebook, Twitter, Google...
    3. the military-industrial complex: "make wars and sell weapons" >>> contributed to the GDP
    4. the unhealthy food industry: maple syrup, McDonald's, Coca Cola
    5. the programmed media industry: CNN, NBC...

    Is there anything else that's heavy-weight and still working?

    Countries that actually have REAL economies adding REAL value:

    1. Ecuador, Costa Rica, Guatemala: bananas
    2. Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria: petrol
    3. Thailand, South Korea, Hungary, Czech Republic, Germany, Turkey: cars
    4. Japan, Malaysia, Costa Rica, Thailand, Singapore: microelectronics
    5. China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam: clothes, shoes
    6. Spain, Turkey, Argentina: fruits and vegetables
    7. Russia, South Africa, Brazil, Australia: minerals, chemicals, precious metals
    8. Cuba, Brazil: sugar cane
    9. Canada, France, Germany, Spain: railroad vehicles
    10. Poland, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Greece: food industry (anything from olive oil to sausages and wine)
    11. Germany, South Korea: heavy industry, steel production
    12. Vietnam, China, Philippines: rice
    13. Israel, Egypt, Hungary: pharmaceuticals
    14. France, the Netherlands, Switzerland: cheese
    15. Spain, Argentina, Italy, France: wine
    16. Switzerland, Germany: chocolate
    17. Japan, Thailand, Germany: optics, photography
    18. Spain, Italy: leather products
    19. Greece, Italy, Spain, Thailand: tourism
    20. India, Hungary, Mexico, Morocco, Italy: spices
    ...

    Kenya can make slippers, they have the know-how. Can the US? :D

    According to Jim Rogers, the future millionaires will be experts in agriculture. Unfortunately for the US, most agricultural products are imported.
    The US and much of Western Europe as well, is lacking know-how. The US could barely produce shoe strings, but the military-industrial complex is one of the most developed branches of the economy...
     
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  18. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    like the ghost towns and dis repaired infrastructures, when the nuke falls.. there is no victims or clean up required
    you cant lose situation is a high bargaining power
     
  19. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    The west was highly successful in building pseudo-economies. The USA and the UK were pioneers.

    Just watch the trends:
    The petrodollar eventually crumbles, the military-industrial complex will not produce enough to sustain their economies, the US economy will keep losing ground as emerging economies gain, the UK leaves the EU and Scotland leaves the UK... Ireland etc., the UK loses its "power position" and becomes and "isolationist archipelago" (while Germany re-emerges as the leading power in Europe, potentially hand-in-hand with Russia), migrants flood Western Europe and the USA, the USA becomes more and more isolated politically and economically (as a result of so many conflicts and bilateral trade agreements excluding the US and the dollar)...

    ...the West will slowly sink into a dark period.

    I think many US/French/Spanish/Italian/German/Dutch/Belgian/Swedish etc. cities will look like Chernobyl. Only that there will be rogue migrants running around instead of mutant animals.

    Detroit will is the "prototype" of the future Western city.

    Burned-out. Over-extended with collapsed economic models. Anti-traditional, therefore unsustainable.

    I don't like what's going on. And it's all because of greedy speculators and power-thirsty pathological political forces.

    Also because: during these dark times usually "someone else" fills the gap. And that "someone else" (regardless whether Russia/China/etc.) is not going to care at all about traditional Western values. No more democracy. No more free speech. We will be afraid to walk on the streets.

    Worrying.
     
  20. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    the first 1 Trillion dollars being transacted outside the USD end of 2019
     

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