Long term chart shows silver is in a downtrend!

Discussion in 'Silver' started by malachii, Apr 8, 2011.

  1. 99Reza

    99Reza New Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2010
    Messages:
    48
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Jakarta/Brisbane
    So the normal price of silver was $1000ish per ounce? The return to the normality is what we wanted then :), except that they didn't have items that gobble up silver back then.
     
  2. Turk

    Turk Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2010
    Messages:
    608
    Likes Received:
    76
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    Australia
    There's an awful lot of history and information embedded within that 650 year chart. Wars, economies, disasters, population growth, mining improvements, price suppression, physical squeeze etc.
    I would hesitate to dismiss it too quickly! Chart histories nearly always provide important clues to future behaviour.

    Silver was money for most of this period; the fact that this enormous span of data is available at all is also very telling.

    Don't be dismayed or concerned by the long term 'decline' suggested. The physical squeeze today is going to have an overriding impact on the price in the short to medium term. And the enormous volatility seen in the shart (remember the vertical scale is LOGARITHMIC, not linear) suggests that the current rise might take silver to heights that some will find unimaginable today.
     
  3. Guest

    Guest Guest

    I actually would love to see silver crash due to low demand to give more buy opportunities, but I am not sure examining a 600 year chart is really looking at the whole equation.

    The nature of silver as a market in 1400 is just a little different to 2010 silver market.

    As is the nature of silver's use in society over the same period.

    Hell, we didn't start destroying silver at these rates before 20 years ago!
     
  4. hem9

    hem9 Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2010
    Messages:
    2,729
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Location:
    Brisbane
    My only problems with the "charts" is that it does not take into account the uses of silver. How many cellphones, computers, solar panels and every technological item you can think of that all uses silver was made in the last 10-15 years. Just that figure of silver usage alone would be staggering but think about our "modern" society now and imagine the future which all these items are considered "essential" to quality of life and how many billions from china, india, russia and other countries who before were not able to get them but now are able to.
     
  5. Guest

    Guest Guest

    Well that's what I'm saying as well hem9. The very nature of the metal as a commodity has changed so much in the last 20 years, it's very hard to quantify such a long term chart that doesn't take this into account.

    We're literally destroying it all. Blowing it up. Putting into band aids, clothing and even deoderant in miniscule amounts, never to be seen again.

    The more we need the stuff, the more energy we need to mine it - the harder it gets to find.

    At what point do we start to consider these fundamentals in chart analysis?


    It's all very simple. If we run out of silver and don't have it for industry anymore, say goodbye to your modern lifestyles. You won't have to wait for oil to run out, it'll be already over!
     
  6. hem9

    hem9 Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2010
    Messages:
    2,729
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Amen to that
     
  7. PerthStack

    PerthStack Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2010
    Messages:
    882
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Location:
    Perth
    Agreed.
    Germany and China hope to double their renewable energy technology output over the next 18 months as well. Never has silver had such a huge demand into the future. The downward use trend over the last 5 years has reversed as the photography industry is basically silver free now, except for the silver in the actual cameras.
    i would imagine the big renewable tech manufacturers will start stockpiling in larger amounts soon, if not already.
     
  8. Guest

    Guest Guest

    What I fear most is the looters of the system declaring silver an essential commodity and look to confiscate it in the national interest, making it illegal to own or barter with.

    They'll come knocking with men holding guns, demand you hand over your wealth or be labelled a terrorist and face imprisonment.

    People don't really understand the lengths these parasites will go to in order to protect their own interests at your expense.
     
  9. Yippe-Ki-Ya

    Yippe-Ki-Ya New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2011
    Messages:
    5,465
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    The Land of Guilty by Default
    +1
     
  10. boston

    boston Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2009
    Messages:
    3,857
    Likes Received:
    24
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Australia
    ++1
     
  11. BullionBull

    BullionBull New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2010
    Messages:
    210
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
  12. Ilikemetals

    Ilikemetals Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2011
    Messages:
    266
    Likes Received:
    11
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Sydney
    doesn't take into account the massive changes this planet will be facing economically in the next 6 months - 2 years :p
     
  13. malachii

    malachii Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2010
    Messages:
    1,927
    Likes Received:
    176
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Victoria
    I can't believe the angst this video has caused and by some who admit to not having watched or only watched half. No one is forcing anyone to watch or make comment. If it doesn't suit your style or outlook - don't worry. I thought some might like a lighter look at silver over the long term and if you really want to look at it deeply - it shows the probable breaking of a longterm down trend and the fact that if it returns to "normal" we are seeing silver at over $1000 an oz. Normally if you put something like that on here for silver, people wet themselves trying to type "here here" first.

    malachii
     
  14. malachii

    malachii Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2010
    Messages:
    1,927
    Likes Received:
    176
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Victoria
    Oh - I forgot - It's different this time isn't it.

    malachii
     

Share This Page