Since I have been a member since February 2014, unless I found a time machine, I guess you remember wrong. Sorry for not lurking out 24/7. Christmas only comes once a year. I don't know what you have been thinking about. 15$ by Christmas means 15$ before Christmas. It doesn't mean that on Christmas day it will be $15. You are just like my wife: trying to prove that I am wrong, even though it's that one time a year I happen to be right! [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmwbYKTT90w[/youtube]
Well done for getting it right! Yes I remember you were getting laughed at back then and your still getting flak now from some people for claiming you were right. There may have been a couple of others who predicted $15 by Christmas but none stood by their claim as much as you by leaving it at the bottom of your every post. You should be laughing now at everyone that ridiculed you! :lol:
You once posted a thread saying we were in a bull trap, at the time I thought so too and replied straight after with something like.. "yep, we are" you got hammered and my post was even deleted. was like, how dare I agree when I don't know jack, well, I guess those that called for the post to be deleted aren't so clever after all. that was at like $28 or something.
Would you jump in to USD etc at 0.845 or do you think we might see 0.86 or 0.87 again before the long drop to 0.70?
You certainly were right, I've seen it at the end of every one of your posts since I started here. Good stuff
I agree with at least a couple of comments - The trend is usually your friend. And this is true about "calls" - I kinda called $4 in 2011 when silver was still over $30 -- http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-216321.html#p216321 -- so if it gets that low I must remember to create a triumphalist thread stating my greatness. I can already feel the love.
During the later months 2013 there was someone that had '$15 by christmas' as signature. If that wasn't "Cheepo" then it must have been a previous forum instance of you. No time machine needed. Your prediction saw the Christmas of the year 2013 passing without the predicted $15. My "another Christmas" references the 2014 one. The previous one the 2013 one. And you didn't need to lurk out 24/7. The cycle to $21 and back was 3 months (just like about all cycles since 2011). It wasn't last year, and the same can repeat. What does your wife say about dishwashing one dish, and leave the rest dirty?
Cheepo, I would like to know how you drew the conclusion you did so I can analyse it and work out whether to take it seriously. So far it sounds like you had two sticks crossed over each other and pulled it out your arse. Not knocking you at all but I am just trying to understand your methodology. My mates and I go to the pub once every 2 weeks and chuck $20 bucks each in on the dogs for a bit of fun. We normally get up because we back the crap dogs with good odds, inevitably sometimes a couple come in and we make a little bit, sometimes we lose it all but its just for a laugh. One time I said to chuck $2 onto a dog that was paying like $75 for the win (can't remember exact amount) the lead pack checked each other up and our steven bradbury esque dog sailed home and won by a length (that is how far back he was). I wanted to illustrate this story because it highlights that even though I had a nice win, I am certainly not an "expert tipper."
It's possible that a gut feeling doesn't have a methodology. It would be more useful, if it had. But let's move on! The new prediction is now $10 by Christmas 2015. That thus means that it can be any day earlier too, including tomorrow, and at Christmas 2015 itself it can be $40. But the prediction will have been correct.
Hey Cheepo, are you getting the feeling that being right is simply the first step to being "in the s...". Certainly works that way with women, I've found. "I told you so", then duck to avoid the frypan!
I don't know what Cheepo was basing his prediction on, but I saw a number or arguments that were primarily based on minimal inflation (or disinflation), lack of yield relative to other investments, growing confidence in the US markets, suspicions of coming (gold) selloffs by troubled EU countries, a drop in the velocity of money, increased output of other commodities such as copper (leading to more silver byproduct), etc (there were more but that's what I recall off the top of my head). Of course we know all of the above is time bound and may change. And maybe it is now. Or maybe not. Ultimately the market may now be so complex that anything could happen, and it could happen very fast. All of this applies equally to gold. Confusing everyone, however, is that we have also been subject to ubiquitous shills and faux-news sites that push PMs through scaremongering that skews peoples expectations towards much higher prices in the short term leading them to completely discount projections based on current economic trends. And there is the far-right that use fear as a political tool, conjuring up imminent hyper-inflation and economic collapse. From June 3, 2013: You risk being subject to personal attacks on almost every gold and silver forum if you try raising these points, so you'll often overlook the more moderate stackers who try to take a reality-based approach to projecting future prices. And there was this thread (but on gold): Credit Suisse spoke of 1,000 $ gold about 1.5 years ago. The infographic is below.
SilverPete already basically answered the question. Let me see some of the points, in no particular order: - the price of silver has been dropping over the decades/centuries. - the price was stable at 4-6$ oz for over 20 years until the bubble that started in 2008. This was obviously the market price, and what followed was a bubble. - EVERY bubble bursts, and the price will drop. - There is NOTHING in the world economy that warrants a price that is 10 times the market price (the top price in 2011). - There is NOTHING in the world economy that warrants a price that is 3 times the market price (15$/oz), so predicting that the price will drop to 15$/oz is really not much more difficult than saying "tomorrow morning the sun will rise". - The cost of producing silver as a byproduct is basically the bottom price of silver, and is is very low (how low I don't know but I am curious, if anybody knows please post it). I am amazed how so many people still talk about how silver cannot be profitably extracted if the price goes below.... (a value they pluck off the clouds) and therefore that's the bottom price. - Industrial demand hasn't really increased much. I believe it's still what it was when a lot of silver was used for films. Now it's used for solar panels and electronics, but the demand hasn't really increased, and it's pretty easy to recycle (though I forgot the exact numbers, so I expect many people, starting with Pirocco, challenging me here. I might as well we wrong with this point!) - As the price drops, there is less demand from stackers (see the gloom mood here), and stackers make up 1/2 the buyers of physical silver. - There is no inflation, so no point in buying a dead metal that doesn't generate any income - Expect inflation, which means the governments will raise interest rates, which means more payments on your mortgage. People will sell their non-performing PM and pay off their mortgage debts. Every rational human being would do that. People buy PM to protect themselves against inflation, but then governments raise interest rates to fight inflation, and people sell PM to pay off their debts, or invest in interest-bearing stuff. - Silver was once currency. It no longer is for a few decades. As the old folks who experienced it as currency die out, will young people see silver as a PM worth stacking? If not, you will have a drop in interest, though over decades, not years. Having said this, the future is uncertain. If you look at the price movements since 2000: Everything that happened since the collapse of Lehman brothers (Sept. 2008) can be considered a bubble. However, silver was above 10$ since January 2006. So we could assume that $10 is the new bottom. I think anything between 10 and 15 is not a bad buy, but I am quite sure it will go well below 15. Since the market always exaggerates, it will probably go below 10 for a short time. The long term equilibrium (over the next 10 years) should be between 10 and 13. Don't forget that at these levels a 1$ movement looks huge, while when the price was 30/oz a 1$ movement was nothing. That's all. No magic ball, and no need to take it seriously if you don't want to. I see it just as a bit of common sense, and don't believe the hype of zerohedge and friends.
thanks for your reply cheepo, I have a better understanding of how you drew the conclusions you did. But like you correctly identified, it is still just a punt with a high element of luck involved. Congratulations on being right on this occasion though, credit given where it is due.
