How to short the Aussie housing market?

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by rbaggio, Feb 25, 2016.

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  1. rbaggio

    rbaggio Active Member Silver Stacker

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    If one was to believe that property prices in Australia are due for a correction, how would one take advantage?
    * Short new home builders' shares?
    * Go long on collection agencies?

    Thoughts?

    Thanks.
     
    rbaggio, Feb 25, 2016
    #1
  2. House

    House Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Main one would be to short banks with the highest resi mortgages (preferably in Syd and Melb). AUD and big retailers too. Not sure if possible but maybe REIT's?

    There are betting agents that take bets on increase and decrease based on ABS stats.
     
    House, Feb 25, 2016
    #2
  3. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Ask Caput, he's the shorting king here.

    House, who attacked your face? :D
     
    Skyrocket, Feb 25, 2016
    #3
  4. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Buy gold.

    A big housing correction would be a set of concrete shoes on the AUD.
     
    JulieW, Feb 25, 2016
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  5. ParanoidAndroid

    ParanoidAndroid Well-Known Member

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    Donnie Darko.
     
    ParanoidAndroid, Feb 25, 2016
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  6. hiho

    hiho Active Member Silver Stacker

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    sell now buy back later, simples
     
    hiho, Feb 25, 2016
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  7. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Sell the banks

    Short the AUD
     
    Caput Lupinum, Feb 25, 2016
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  8. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    short boral and csr?
     
    Silverthorn, Feb 25, 2016
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  9. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    What if the government wants to do some deficit infrastructure spending?
     
    Caput Lupinum, Feb 25, 2016
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  10. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    good point but I suspect they'd still take a hit.
     
    Silverthorn, Feb 25, 2016
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  11. tozak

    tozak Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think the Australian housing market is severally overpriced coupled with too many housing starts, decreasing average annual incomes and an aging population.

    In theory the market needs to fall a lot to get back to fair value however despite all this I think we are about to see one of the biggest housing booms about to kick off.

    Short periods of deflation are normal and healthy, prolonged deflation is a mathematically impossible scenario in eyes of a keynesian in a debt based monetary system. Debt based liquidity eventually dissolves causing a systemic collapse of everything unless we inflate, the next wave will have to be so large every asset class will be effected. Don't trade on logic, trade on history repeating it's self. If you think you can time it spot on then short the banks that hold a lot of real-estate assets on their books.
     
    tozak, Feb 25, 2016
    #11
  12. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'd be reluctant to buy precious metals after what the OP went through...
     
    Caput Lupinum, Feb 25, 2016
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  13. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I just think it's severely over priced.
     
    willrocks, Feb 25, 2016
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  14. Lunardragon

    Lunardragon Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Perhaps LLC lend lease.........
     
    Lunardragon, Feb 25, 2016
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  15. projack

    projack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    One of the ways is to short the AU financials index.
    AU bank shares already down significantly in the last 12 month.


    [​IMG]
     
    projack, Feb 25, 2016
    #15
  16. projack

    projack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    projack, Feb 25, 2016
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  17. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    Hoard your cash and then strike when there is blood on the streets.
     
    SilverDJ, Feb 25, 2016
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  18. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    wrcmad, Feb 25, 2016
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  19. projack

    projack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Selling gold for AUD and investing it to government bonds to make money on the local property bubble is beyond stupidity.
     
    projack, Feb 25, 2016
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  20. Killface

    Killface Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    One interesting point made in this article:

    Exactly what I see playing out in Perth now.. and still more apartments coming onto the market, built when it seemed like the surest no-brainer moneymaker imaginable.
     
    Killface, Feb 25, 2016
    #20
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