Steve Keen would once have agreed. His point was that his prediction WOULD have worked out if the government hadn't done a range of things to keep the property market up. Considering how 'motivated' Australian politicians are in property, I wouldn't bet on anything regarding it other than a soft landing and further tax and interest rate concessions if that 'soft' is even slightly firm. They resiled on GST vs Stamp Duty and there's nothing to stop them removing that if they want to give a boost to the market. Ditto some interest rate cuts, and if all else fails, more first home owner grants etc. We can all agree that property is 'overvalued' whatever that means, but given the size of the industry and its GDP influence I wouldn't bet against it just yet. After all who votes in those speculator paradise mining towns? If Sydney or Melbourne started to collapse there'd be bailouts galore.
p.s. and by the way, I'm not a property bull by any stretch, as many safeguards as I can enact are in place and have been for a few years now, but whilst it seems a lot of waiting since 2008 for 'the property bubble to burst', we may indeed be ready for an 1890s crash. The difference of course is the ability to kick the can down the road these days, and I'd be more sure of the can going down the road, than property plummeting uncontrolled to a massive wipeout of Australia's favourite asset.
Yep, pretty much as I argued in the negative gearing thread. Won't stop some speculators from coming unstuck, depending on leverage, projected rents etc. The rental market in Perth has gone pretty soft indeed. And there's only so much policy can do to re-inflate a bubble. Wish I could find the reference from a Daily Reckoning type newsletter quoting a statistic on the failure rate of acquisitions made by mining companies during the height of a resource boom.. it's pretty high, as recent events have shown (impairments suffered by Rio and BHP etc). But it's pretty predictable that the most outrageous and risky bets are made in the 'can't lose' excitement of the good times. And bubble or no *cough*, there's a lot of exposed 'developers' looking at the same fate IMHO.
Do you mind describing your safeguards? And similarly, I am not a complete property bear either, just someone who questions the mantra 'property always goes up.' Having taken on my first mortgage last year, I am happy to allow low interest rates and inflated prices to bestow their benefits upon me for the foreseeable future.. just not counting on it forever.
you need to go the bank, ask the banker to create the cds for you. oh.. you need to be a hedge fund manager to do it.
Increase in shorting of Aussie housing market after Teppers explosive revelation. AFR Have you followed through Rbaggio?
Not yet. I am sure it will become one of this times when I look back and say "I wish I had". Hopefully others have bookmarked this thread for reference if they want to pull the trigger. Also: It's different here?