I reckon you should spend about a 3rd of your cash on LOW PREMIUM silver now don't worry about size just price/oz. Be prepared to spend the next third later this year when we get some movement out of this $20ish holding pattern we are stuck in. If the movement is down go low premium again - max ounces with your investment but look to make surte you have some smaller sizes, a couple of hundred ASE's etc or a few 10 oz bars. If the movement is up look at semi numi stuff. The premium will act as a bit of insurance against drop-in much the same way Romans example above worked. Then wait with your last 3rd cash for the next move. Again up = but semi numi, drop = but max ounces. If the first move is up and you buy the numi stuff with the middle third followed by a drop you can sell some of your higher premium stuff and increase your total ounces. The only real way to do well buying high and selling low is with higher premium stuff. If you're happy the low is in or near just go for ounces. Either way I think its smarter to split your investment across multiple purchases and what you buy should depend on the direction of the market.
One problem I can foresee is, assuming you are in Europe or the USA, getting the actual silver to another country. You can be assured that the global community will do everything to stop currency flows either out of, or into their countries. AU and AG would also come into this scenario. Refer recent 'smuggling' events in Italy, China and India - google is your friend here.
If QE (economic life support) were to stop it would be all over Red Rover. Halting QE would be suicide and cause the complete failure of the US economy. It's not going to happen until the very end and the inevitable disaster that QE is currently postponing.
I agree. One thing is the intention, hopes and lies of FED, and another different thing is the reality. Tapering is not coming any time soon, despite FED says. But anyway, QE or tapering, silver will go lower, until the $11-14 region, imHo.
At this gold / silver ratio (66) is not intelligent to buy gold. If you like gold, the best you can do NOW is to buy silver, and sawp by gold in the future with a lower ratio, at around 30. In that way you get double amount of gold for the same price.
Good point Boston. That's why is very important to diversify silver in several countries through remote and segregated safe deposits.
Good post. But I insist, the only way to do well buying high and selling low is not buying high. Don't use numis to offset your losses... just don't buy and invest that money at lower prices with low premium to maximize ounces. At the end of the day and after financial correction, the important stuff will be silver, not the design.
@ Dr It's the design that has gotten lots of people lots of money over the past year and I'm sure over the past several years (but I'm relatively new and haven't followed for that long). I reiterate....it all depends on why you are buying silver. If you think that in a year or two the US dollar will collapse, that's a different strategy than if you think that things will be largely the same for a decade or more out. I have read that the Chinese and Indians have been buying lots of silver and gold for quite a while now. Using the "logic" that some use claiming that this demand can only result in sky rocket prices, it sure looks like it's not a good logic as the price doesn't reflect this multi-year high demand. The way it looks to me, paper investor sentiment is what really drives prices significantly up and down. .
Never forget that the same good guys who put silver spot at $49 two years ago, are the same bad guys smacking silver down now onto low teens... Welcome to Silver Crown Casino, and tighten your belt.
Just a note to Overseas members. If Silver hits US$14 the Aussie dollar will be around US0.66 or less, so buying now could still be buying at the "bottom" as far as we're concerned. Apart from that waiting for a specific $$ price, in any currency, ignores buying opportunities for products that might not be around when your ideal buying price arrives. I don't do paper, all phys. Got a Detector...it keeps my DCA down.
Never trust on silver and currency correlations. They use to fail in key trading moments. The planet is running out of silver, but still it's available for some decades, trust me. Good on you mate
I don't mean vanishing supplies, I mean things that don't appear everyday at reasonable prices. Bought a 100g bar w/ serial number #88 a couple of weeks ago. Paid a premium over retail. Will also sell for a premium over retail one day, probably to a high roller at Crown Casino.
If you are in the long run, where real money resides, every time you pay high premium you are wrong. Two reasons: (1) With time, the value of silver will rise much more than the premium. Actually, premium sometimes cannot even bet inflation. (2) If the supply of silver decreases drastically in the future, people won't pay for premium bars. They will pay just for silver maximizing ounces, regardless design. The only reason to buy premium silver is if you believe silver price is gonna decrease in the long run. If so, just don't buy silver and go to real state or stocks.
I understand the logic. However I can foresee a time when it will be easier, and quicker, to sell a recognisable coin to the masses, than a bar. Liquidity plays a large part in the equation, especially if the laws change.
I feel self-confident in what I'm doing... but I think should be interesting to know your opinion in this regard. I like to learn from everybody. We are here to share knowledge, right? TIA
I'm in love with these bars... 15 kg and 5 kg. Poured. UMICORE [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQczgeuDffA[/youtube]
