true but perhaps it's best to hedge on the way down just in case it turns that corner if you believe in the fundamentals, the long term will eventually work itself out
I wont be surprised if it reverses and goes up to $50 in 1 week, and if it continues with the current thread and drops to $18. my brain and papersellers kinda dont understand each other.
No way will it go to $50. Margins on future trades just wont allow it. If it begins to jump to the upside margins will be HIKED again. Don't be surprised to see mid to low $20's again and if it gets there it will be the time to convert as much fiat as you can to silver because when the dirivites market collapses, and it will, we will see the true value of silver. Forget about the price day to day price as it is only the paper price not the psyical price. Silver is for long term, ie years. All that is going on now is a very bullish sign for the future price of psyical. When the price settles for a couple of days in a row is when I believe the best time to buy will be. Thats buy PHYSICAL
Great graph Reflector. Demand driven price peak followed by profit taking hammering the daily trade line. The historical data below uncovers the truth, not a bubble at all, it's coming back to low forties as we type.
Bubbles are caused by (speculative) demand. The chart below shows the SLV volume, the other showed GLD volume.
I felt that 36 was going to be the support for a long time but obviously it didn't hold up too well @_@ Though this could just be a dip below the line and it will stablise around 36. *runs out of coffee*
It could happen. To be honest the thought of Silver going back to the $20's never crossed my mind before this crash.
I never thought that JPM could pull it off by pushing prices back below their $36 point. I am mildly impressed to be honest.
It's easy to forget the bankers own the whole system ,from comex to cftc, I'm sure they'd like to see $20 dollar or less silver.
Hey guys, new to the forum.. My guess is that it wont go below $30, Ive got a feeling there will be another round of short covering coming up after the price consolidates and seeing another quick leg up in price
I am really interested to see where the bottom is. I think this will be the market price without the most of the effects of upside (internet led popularity) and downside (shorting) manipulations. If the price is higher than ~$30 this will show a continuing fundamental up trend due to US$ weakness buying causing supply channel problems. If it drops below then I am going to assume margin hikes are causing a new suppression. Be interesting to see eBay prices in a weeks time.
I think that if it is manipulated it will go up for a day or two to sucker people in,then down again to its final level. after it bottoms($27?),probably come back to ,maybe,$33 ?,for a good while. "Once burnt ,twice shy",will come into operation. Second bottom might make a good paper trade,for a short time. But maybe too volatile to trade anything at the moment. Silvers blown its investor confidence for a good while. Golds becomes more important. But I'm often wrong. (probably why I'm not rich.)
I wouldn't be surprised to see the price go below USD$30 if the margin hikes haven't been fully priced in. There is also momentum to take into account which we saw on the way up - people buy because the price is going up so conversely, people sell when the price goes down. I think it would suit a lot of people nicely if the price went below USD$25 and stayed in the mid-20s for a while so a lot of those people might be taking out short positions.
I agree. Human nature does not change so neither do the markets. This drop may not be quite over yet, there is more than one cause at play. Patience is called for.
Heh, no idea. If all the people who piled in over the last 6 months start looking at the charts and see how low silver has been in the (recent) past, they might decide to cut their losses and bale out. The last 6 months has been crazy and when you consider that the COMEX has raised margins so speculators "only" need fifteen bucks out of a hundred to gamble instead of seven bucks, it puts some perspective on how extremely leveraged the market is. People who actually need silver to make things eventually have to pay full price for it which means everyone else is at the casino with a titanium AMEX card. If doubling the margins from "extremely low" to "still pretty damned low" equates to a ~$15 slump in a week then a lot of those gamblers are priced out of the market and the people who need physical silver probably can't increase their production capacity quickly enough to be able to use all the cheap silver they could buy at the lower prices so they'll keep buying at about their present rate. I say this expecting to be proved completely wrong, but like I said, I still wouldn't be surprised to see silver below USD$30 again.
