One long time trader posted $28-32 which is similar to Stella's. Ben Davies work called for a $10-15 drop in 3-5 days. Already got the $15 in 4 days, so we shall see. Kudos to those who sold earlier and buy back in lower than where they sold. Edit: I am going to go with the $34.26 print low I saw a few minutes ago. It was tested a second time and held. Not the kind of milli-second drop low we are used to seeing, but then this whole drop has been fairly sharp. And since I am out of the office tomorrow, I will be blissfully unaware if I am atrociously wrong.
The only way this will end is if people just take physical possession. I mean if you buy the contracts you want physical, if they try to bribe you with 80% margins threaten to go public on them. 80% now won't work if you bought in at $50 per oz. Say you stand for delivery at $50 x 5000, you deposit $250,000. You need 80% premiums on this amount to be bribed away. They'll try giving you 80% on the current price of $34 instead. Its all a rigged game, time to actually just take physical. I just hope the big players start to drain them fully irrespective of the rigged price. Slam
Back to baseline?. I don't see why it can't go back down to the teens where it was before the run up. Maybe it could even sit there for a year or two at $13 - $19oz.
Nup, I'm generally bullish on Ag but.... . There is more to those no's though than meets the eye....anyway....kinda like May 1st 2011 (Mayday mayday....(The Osama mock sacrifice?, Hitler pronounced dead Mayday...1945 etc etc yawn)). Not stuff I really discuss on this forum. I was heavily invested in silver when it dropped from $21 to $9/oz (approx). I would not be surprised to see silver go back to the teens and sit there for months or years.
Thought it might be time to revisit this old post: http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-65105.html#p65105 .. with an updated image:
Now some are predicting sub $30, and stating they will BTFD at that time which makes me think that the markets, just to keep us off balance, would turn earlier than this so average Joe Stacker once again misses timing the bottom. Could it be back to $40+ before we realize the boat has been missed again?
My advice is to buy on the way down slowly, because 95% of you will miss the bottom anyway. (I bought at 38 and 34 so far)
I predict it will bottom out around rent day and when all the bills are due, and be back to fresh new highs at around the time I have some spare cash and my SMSF is setup.
Assuming the bubble chart is correct... plus some human psychology, the bottom this time will be about $AUD30. Then a rise as people pick up a bargain to $AUD36. Then the fall... I notice it stablises around Sydney/Hong Kong hours and falls outside of that. So I "predict" tomorrow then is the bottom.
This uptrend started in the teens, so surely this makes the teens the most likely place it will finish. If it does, this down trend will have been as at least as spectacular as the rise. I might have to go back to my old mentality of not buying over $20/oz.
