imo silver and all other things move/flow in very dynamic ways. when price is high, 1 kilo = 1oz gold, there are swap demand there, now 1/4 oz gold = abt 10-12 oz silver there will be swap demand here. the exchange rates and the premiums on coins also impact the overall flow of silver. more like cycles, I used to buy from USA, then OZ then EU then China etc then USA and will be buying from OZ again.
Hi Lunarowl, these are my thoughts/opinions. I think you are doing well. 10oz Bar for 8x 1oz Kooks. <Winner>. Until the big day when silver shoots for the skies, coinage will appreciate faster than bullion. Kooks don't have a lot of numismatic value, but they have some. So hopefully you'll be well covered as a result. [If silver shoots up a lot tomorrow, then yeah, the bullion would have been better. But if it takes a few years for silver to shoot up, then I believe that the Kooks were a good move]. 4x 1oz 2007 Kook for 3x 1oz 2010 Panda. <Winner>. This was a fantastic deal! The current value of 4x1oz Kooks is the approximate value of 3x 1oz 2010 Pandas. Plus the value of the 2010 Pandas will more quickly outpace the Kooks in future years. [E.g. 2009 Panda is worth $99AUD, almost 2.25times more than a standard Maples/ASE]. Plus, you have also hedged any potential losses if spot drops... The price of Pandas rarely move downwards, even when spot drops. The price of Kooks/Maples/ASEs/etc move up and down according to spot. 2x 1oz 2007 Kook for 1x 2009 Panda. <Winner>. Another fantastic deal! The current value of a 2009 Panda is worth $94AUD [APMEX]. The current retail value of 2x Kooks is $82.52 [KJC]. You have gained immediately. Plus, you have also hedged any potential losses if spot drops. Coinage is really useful if you need/want to go overseas (especially in a SHTF situation). Pandas especially will be accepted by almost any legit dealer/collector in Asia and will hold onto their premium better than the Kooks will. But even Kooks are likely to command a better premium than Southern Cross bars in Asia. In my opinion LunarOwl, well done! Fishball is right (in my opinion). There are a lot of Pandaphobes who will boldly claim that nobody wants Pandas, but the actual FACT of the matter is, there is huge and constant demand for Pandas all over the world. Whether you love the Chinese advantage/disadvantage of 1.4billion people, all these people have access to Pandas, and are far more familiar with them than ASEs/Maples/Kooks/etc... they alone could easily consume the very short supply of Pandas. The prices of Pandas reflect this. This can be tested, just look at good dealer sites like APMEX, Yellow River Rare Coins, etc, and you will see that Pandas almost always command a huge premium. I like referring to APMEX because they are a big dealer, and their site is designed to move their coins quickly. APMEX have done their homework, and have valued the Pandas accordingly. But I also like referring to the smaller genuine dealers also, because they also know their coins, and they too value the Pandas higher than a similar non-panda bullion coin (Maples/ASEs/etc). Almost all coins are also subject to the law of supply and demand... and the data is showing low supply (low mintages) and high demand (1.4billion people in China+ x.x billion people outside of China) = High Prices for Pandas
pandas are in a bubble sooner or later, someone, somewhere is going to realise an oz of silver is an oz of silver
Hahhaa... I respectfully disagree. Different silver coins are valued differently. Even among a small group of traders here, we can evidently see this. People will not swap PreDecimal threepences for equal amounts Kooks/Koalas/ASEs/Maples/etc (if anyone wants to, please contact me). If I offered 10KGs of PreDecimals for 10KGs of ASE/Maple/Kook/etc coins, I am sure not many people would accept. If I offered 10KGs of Masterpieces in Silver or State Series Coins for 10KGs of ASE/Maple/Kook/etc coins, I am sure not many people would accept. If I offered 10KGs of 1oz Silver Pandas for 10KGs of ASE/Maple/Kook/etc, I am sure many people would accept. It was SilverStackers that quickly taught me, an ounce of silver is not necessarily worth an ounce of silver
It's kind of like how PAMP silver has a premium, pandas have this similar premium. You wouldn't trade 1oz PAMP silver for 1 buffalo round... You wouldn't trade 1 panda for 1 buffalo round...
I can understand how predecimals are different to ase/maples/kook etc, predecimals are not .999 or at a standard weight. Selling it to a newbie is going to be harder than a 1oz .999 with a government stamp on it. but lets compare a kook to a panda both are limited minted both are 1oz both are silver both are round both are govnernment minted one is 40ish and the other is 45ish I still believe people are willing to pay 45 is because they can sell it to some sucker for 47 later on, not based on spot, but perceived value. question is, who is going to be the last sucker
Kooks are overrated though, limited mintage does not mean that the value immediately goes up. Take a look at the crappy 5000 mintage colored PM coins...ick. Try asking around in China to see if people know what a Kookaburra is... you'll get weird stares and people going "wtf is that?". Pandas. Globally recognized. Highly demanded by Chinese people. I'll leave yennus to provide more arguments to support this but I don't believe a $5 premium is a 'bubble'. Canadian wolves or grizzlies are going for those prices as well, same with lunar s2 tigers and the like (~$45).
Yes, let's compare. Using REAL data for standard 1oz Bulk Uncirculated (too much work to quickly calculate proofs, different sizes, etc) Limited Supply of Kooks: 6051500x 1oz Kooks. Population of Australia 22,647,355. Only 1 Kook per 3.74 people. Limited Supply of Pandas: 7788000x 1oz Pandas. Population of China 1,339,724,852. Only 1 Panda per 172.02 people. Assuming everyone wants silver when silver goes crazy, the demand for Chinese Pandas in China alone will outstrip demand for Kooks by 45.99 times. A HUGE difference. Both are government minted: Australia is unlikely to prevent to the import of Chinese Pandas due to our "free market" system. Kooks and Pandas compete freely and equally within Australia. Both are government minted: China has done in the past and has the political might to prevent the import of overseas bullion. Kooks compete at a disadvantage to Pandas within China. <sorry... gotta go out... really enjoying this discussion... will write more when I return. Hope this is interesting >
who's the last sucker.... the last buyer I guess. That's pretty much describes most trades. It is about the inequality of market that makes profit. If the market is always equal/efficient, then there is no profit because the value of silver/gold will always be hedged. E.g. 1 oz silver = 1 kg of chicken In a perfect market, no matter what happens (fiat = 0), you can still get 1kg of chicken for 1oz of silver. In this situation, everyone will be banking in silver and gold only. The numismatic value of kooks and pandas adds a layer of speculation to a base commodity. This is attractive for investors and traders. Without the possibility of speculation, silver is just silver, no extra demand, no way of extracting/leveraging extra value (dollar). Hence a lot of stackers can profit (and make a loss).
well, i still think there is a high demand for pandas because there is a high demand for pandas. Yes, its circular reasoning. one buys pandas because it has a high demand and they can sell it at a higher price later on, this creates a higher demand (true? either that or they are just mucking around because it looks cool) this cycle continues until the last buyer says, "this is just nuts, this much for a panda? i'm not buying that" In some ways, this is good it allows people to make profits. (unless you are the last buyer, so its all about timing) This applies with many other coins, that is, the canadian wolf, the redback, lunar dragons and tigers. This is different to silver stacking fundermentals.
Reminds me of the property market.... I'll say that you should collect what ever you want to collect, if you're happy then the trade was good, I might even grab a few pandas just because I like the variety or I have a collection but I wont invest in them based on the reasoning Yennus has outlined. This is because I have never been interested in numismatics, I'm willing to pay a certain premium for smaller weights and legal tender or for something that is for a collection but that is it. Just seems to be the old numismatic / collectable argument =) Also I'm not convinced on paying a significant premium for something that will have a demand in another country because you're just going to have to pay more shipping to offload it. On an oz basis I think you lost, 10 -> 6 is a pretty bad conversion ratio, I get the feeling you could have picked up a couple of fractional coins in some of those deals, maybe a round 50c or two. HOWEVER on a dollar basis you are doing much better, more importantly you have the coins you want and you didn't have to outlay any extra money, sounds like a win for you =)
True.. they both have a premium (but one (the panda) has a far larger premium). The pamp pimping people dont pay 3x spot for and think its a great deal cos 3.2 billion chinese might one day want to buy it off yoU and youll be rich i say! Consider the bubble point closely... in the secondary market of pandas... now your paying what ? 3x times spot? Those that are paying 3 times spot for a 2009 --- they are anticiapting a further increase in value and in there minds probebrly think the price will continue its rise to the moon... this is why it is an unsustainable growth. I would agree if you could buy the latest year for say $6 over spot then that is a good investment.. much like a lunar perth mint coin.. but just cos they shoot up in price (*much like silver did) since 2009 i dont really see the prices accummulating at the same rate they are currently.. if they were too then that would be incredible... but just as silvers run up was unsustainable.. i doubt those paying around $100 per panda now are making a wise choise when they could be buying 3 x lunar mice etc at the same price (as say a 2009). Each to there own but ill go for lunars at $5 over spot a million times over buying any panada (based purely on silver reasoning and keeping my political & economic dissagreements aside) So yes buying the new pandas isnt a bubble but buying into the premiums on the older pandas is, the oppertunity cost of buying a panda is GREAT (WALL). 1for1
Personally I wouldn't touch the older pandas, I agree there are some signs of 'bubble' and it's fast becoming a numismatic thing more than a stacker thing. This is fueled by the Chinese demand of Pandas and could be a bubble or could just be demand, either way I would not pay $300 or even $200 for a 1oz Silver coin let alone over $80,000. I can buy the latest year for less than $6-8 over spot, well before spot tanked anyway. Same price as lunar rabbits, so I thought it was worth it. I don't expect a miraculous $100 for my 2011 Pandas, but it's a possibility I guess, beats stacking Koalas or Buffalo rounds which will always be spot + X. I'm not entirely sold on all the lunars. If it was $5 over spot for dragons and a panda, I would go for dragons. If it was $5 over spot for lunar mice and a panda I would go for the panda. I like to think about what will possibly appreciate in value and the potential when stacking. Purely looking at the ounces is fine if you are a passive stacker but I like to be interactive with my 'investments' I reckon this is true as well. There is definitely way too much(?) hype in older pandas. I think they are becoming numismatic items and are not good for casual stackers. If you're interested in numi then by all means go ahead but for people who are interested in appreciating their core stack then probably not a good idea. So I guess to summarize it comes down to whether or not you are stacking for profit, for SHTF, for the long term, for short term gains, as a hobby (numi) or whatever. Depending on what you are doing, pandas may or may not be a suitable investment.
Hi Fishball.. well surmised... we seem to be on the same page.. if i could source Pandas for $5 over spot from a reputable deal id be prepared to purchase my first authentic ones (as they are the only famous govt minted bullion i do not yet own *(real) . I have never seen Pandas for $5 over spot but i guess i wasnt looking. And prior to joinng SS i didnt know about the group buys etc... in other words.. at $5 over spot its a great buy, id like to get in on some 2012's if anyone is making a group purchase? Also are pandas 31.1? or just a adv ounce? 1for1
Hi all, Thanks for your inputs.. It's good to see the considerations from two different views. I'm personally happy with the swaps as I wanted to collect these coins, eventhough I could have bought it with fiat somewhat cheaper now. Lesson learn: separate investing with collecting and don't cross the two. Cheers!
I was just re-reading the older posts, there seems to be 2 different types of stackers: Panda lovers and Panda err.. non-lovers, and nothing in the middle. I for one was not confinced with pandas after reading so many articles about fakes. Also the photos of the coins do not do justice. But after holding the real coin, I can see why some people likes it. I'd say the 2010-2011 pandas are the best looking bullion coins I've seen so far (mind you I haven't seen all coins available). Anyway.. didn't expect so many responses, thanks everyone.. and to summarise (I like doing stats): 25% think I did OK/good 35% neutral / irrelevant 40% think I've spectacularly failed (I'm still learning.. please be gentle) Thanks again!
I'm glad your happy with your swaps, I think you did well. You can collect and invest with Pandas. If every single year of Panda has increased in fiat value (and in ounce swap value) since 1983, you can be fairly sure that the trend is likely to continue. The fastest returns (in my opinion) are to be had with the 2010s at the moment. They are very affordable, only slightly above standard bullion, and are likely to hit 2009 1oz silver Panda prices quickly (around $99.99USD). The biggest returns (in my opinion) are some of the older Pandas. Some have extremely low mintages (below 25,000) which makes them incredibly rare in China and abroad. Remember, it's simply a supply and demand scenario. The supply of Pandas is very low... even in the best scenario where a person is allowed to keep only 1 panda in China, you're looking at only 1 Panda per 172 people. The demand for Pandas is very high... in a bull market for silver, pandas in China alone will automatically have 46 times more demand than Australia. Pandas, in my opinion, the best way to collect and invest at the same time Plus, Jim Rogers buys Pandas [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_jimrogersbuyspandas.jpg][/imgz]
