Completely disagree - I think the average Joe has virtually no sway in the price at the moment. Most average Joe's don't even think about gold, and for those that do, they don't have enough bankroll to sway a market. Any person who does have such a bankroll is by definition not an average Joe.
If 1,000,000 Australians bought just 1oz of AU per year, for security - that would be a very small, but significant, amount of the annual mining output of Australia. Would probably worry the government of the day no end.
Have a friend with the theory that much of the price action in gold is driven by the ECB trying to boost their balance sheet for each of their quarterly reports, year on year. So look to last year's gold price as a target for the ECB to exceed in euros.
LOL Spread the word. I'm a real big spender! LOL Such an impact! But seriously, so much is traded electronicly. I wonder if anyone was able to trully put to paper the figures of oz of gold (or silver) bought and sold each day split by Physical vs Electronic, what the respective percentages would be? Then again, it'd be hard to do this. Sometimes x amount is bought from company y, and then the gold is stored by x at company y. So is this an electronic purchase or a physical purchase? X doesn't actually take receipt of his gold and relies only on "trust" that company y hasn't sold the same oz of gold to half a dozen different people all on a promise that it will be stored by them subsequent to purchase. Silver purchased as an EFT is a different thing though.......clearly electronic (isn't it?)
I'd assume most of it. I think it is fairly commonly held belief here, and elsewhere, that if the highly leveraged paper gold system was 'deleveraged' then the real price of physical gold would be much higher than the current farce they call 'spot'.
Well, that won't be difficult. Gold's peak in Q2 2011 was 1085.03 Euros. It's currently at 1305.78 Euros. I'll be looking forward to the next quarter though
People don't get exited just yet. The way the market is going expect a crash quite soon around the third quarter and the price of gold will plummet like it did in 08'.
Is this really true? I'm locked and loaded to buy a 5oz bar from GoldStackers .....tonight! Just wish the missus had let me do it in the last two weeks..... Better late than never
It may plummet because people will sell their good stuff to cover their bad bets. But this time maybe it won't.Because other people might be going for security in the face of falling currencies. And the crash starts now.
Yes. Based on Soul Esprit's work using Fractal geometry in trading, he has an amazing track record thus far including the gold high in September last year. His conclusions rest neatly with Martin Armstrong of Armstrong economics. Marc Faber is another person with merit and also expects a market crash this year. I tend to follow people with a scientific approach to market analysis with a proven methodology unlike people with a vested interest in the sale of gold i.e. Peter Schiff, James Turk, John Embry and Jim Sinclair etc. At the moment people and investors alike will seek the safety of the US dollar and its treasury bills although once the US loses it world currency edge then all bets are off. Last week alone Japan and China no longer use the Dollar as a commerce currency. The massive price rise in gold will not occur now as most would like. It will come about when the US can no longer issue its Bonds for sale for lack of customers combined with investors no longer perceiving the US as a safe haven, this will occur in 2015. Then you people will increase your wealth by an order of magnitude Vis--vis gold holdings. I was last year on the cusp of converting a sold property to gold and upon meticulous study decided against such a move. If you plan on holding your gold long term and by long term I mean more than 3 years then by no means sell it. Let me be clear here, I am not advocating that you sell at all although If you think you can make a quick dollar now you might not achieve it by buying gold. This is partly the work I have based my decision on. Caveat emptor.
I have heard this a few times. I actually believe that when things look their worst, the price of gold falls for a different reason: The gold markets are hugely leveraged during ordinary times. Let us say 10-1 for ease of argument. When an investor (leveraged 10-1 long gold) wants to take delivery of his gold, he has to have 100% of the price of the gold contract he wants delivery for in his account. Thus, he needs to end 9 of his long contracts in order to stand for delivery of 1 contract. Therefore, someone removing a contract worth of physical gold from the stockpile is simultaneously removing 9 LONG contracts from the market, thus paradoxically making gold fall. This would also explain the reason why an inital drop (ala '08) results in a much larger price afterwards as the market adjusts for less available gold.
^^ An interesting theory. The only counter-argument I would have is that I don't think anyone stands for delivery in the paper market? It's easier to take paper profits than get delivery. You can even buy physical with the paper profits!
While I don't agree with your premise, the premise itself makes no difference. The 'long' still needs to liquidate 9 times more long contracts than he is going to buy physically (from the Perth Mint for example). The fact that the contracts, and the physical purchases are from different places makes no difference. He is still, paradoxically, a net SELLER as far as the price of gold is concerned.
Sorry now that I re-read your post, I was only responding to the last sentence I agree about leverage, although I still think most don't stand for physical delivery anyway. Not even 1 in 10. Not even 1 in 100. But I still like to hear these theories... I don't discount it completely, it's plausible.
