No worries. My response would be simply that it doesn't require 'most' to stand for delivery. If a single person, who was leveraged 'even 100 to 1', decides to stand for delivery, he has to end 99 contracts to raise enough cash to stand for the delivery of 1 contract (or end 100 contracts and buy 1 contract worth of gold from the Perth Mint in scenario 2). All else being equal, this is still an aggregate short increase of 99-100 contracts in the market.
I disagree. There are two systems at war: 1 - Dollar - that desperately need lower gold price 2 - Euro - that desperately need higher gold price Its Euro system that count its gold reserves at market price not some silly $44/oz as US does atm. Once ECB did that, BRICS followed; go, you figure.
At the moment, considering the state of the world, I think the real reason to buy gold is protection and not investment. "THEY" will steal the pennies from your eyes if they can. At least with that 5oz bar, you'll have something real if it all falls apart. My approach has always been to get the physical when I can, it might not be available next week. I agonised about buying a sovereign for 310 when bullion from davis they were about 290. All in all I've never missed those coffees.
Please clarify as there is a contradiction... do you mean "by ANY means sell it.." or are you saying "by any means DON'T sell it"... so basically as you saying hold or sell?? For me (personally) three years is short term... so are you saying that gold will go to the moon in 2015? If that is the case in your opinion, why didn't you convert your sold property into gold at $1500/oz and sit and smile when 2015 comes along. I was a little confused as to me that seems sensible. I would like to hear more as it is very interesting. Thanks, Shiny.
With things so chaotic and fluid,and with so many variables at play,how can you tell whats it going to be like in 3 months time,let alone 3 years.
Thanks TRH, unfortunately science, and by that I refer to physics and math is no guarantee (or even a likely outcome) in predicting markets. That is because economics is a human construct based on behaviour not formulae. < smiley to show I'm not nasty I should add that the above is in "my considered opinion" in case my own personal forum moderator (you know who you are) stomps on my head. This view is also shared by eminent people with credibility - it's not just something made up just in my head - but it's also been made up in other people's heads. It can also be termed penis oops "physics envy". < smiley indicates I have credibility Edit to add @ Peter: It's easier if you are a prophet
I mean DO NOT SELL BEFORE 2015 at the earliest. The price will start at the Moon as you put it and travel beyond the Kuiper Belt. The reason for me not converting my property to gold is a little complex and was based on my believing at the time that property prices would increase forever so I intended to purchase a new home quickly. I could not wait until the gold price would hit $2000/oz by Christmas (The capital gains on my gold would be eaten up by taxes anyway if sold in the same year). This was when property prices were going ballistic. As you know property has since moderated and will come down even more. So I intend to purchase a new home with my funds before 2015. If I did not intend to buy I would have bought gold and taken delivery with an eye to keeping it for quite some time(10 years). So hope this clarifies all points. Buy now if you must or even better buy in the third quarter this year and take delivery and store in a private vault(no bank vault). If you have already bought, keep it and don't sell before 2015.
I used to consider that as well although now put stock in the belief that randomness is a human belief construct not the other way round. The common dictionary defines randomness as having no definite aim or purpose. When applied usage in science, mathematics and statistics observes an absence of predictability when citing randomness although accepts regularities in the occurrences of events whose outcomes are not certain. Once the unified theory is discovered man will face the disturbing reality that his life is meaningless. He is merely a cog in a grand machine that turns right or left, he does not decide which, the machine does. Organized religion detests and has an intense aversion against science because the laws of the universe ultimately dictate man's direction not man himself. My five cents.
In terms your ability as a prophet, your credibility and what goes on inside your head, this thread http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-27240-gsr-57.html may go someway towards others trying to understand your somewhat cryptic post Not sure what point you were trying to make with regards penis/physics envy. As you are female, it might only be understandable from your perspective. Irrespective, it was your point but you don't appear to be making sence and instead have your messages/threads mixed up re: being a prophet. Again, the link provides insight into your claims in that arena. On topic though, I am like most on this site, watching the price moves with interest. Logic seems to be lost with many of the short term moves in price. Almost like a game of two up predicting whether gold (and/or silver) will go up or down in price if there is a sharp fall on the stock market. (Your bang on the money on that point Peter). I think long term though, gold is still where my faith lies unshaken. Just look around the world. All the signs are there for worrying trends globally. Despite all the rethoric in the newspapers and from the government about how things are on the improve, nothing to worry about, we're all good here in Oz compared to the rest etc etc etc, the reality (the fundamentals) appear to show a very different story. Just a matter of time before gold takes another run I believe. In the mean time, I'll keep accumulating (both Gold AND Silver). As an exercise in humour, have a read of what politicians were saying in the year prior to the onslaught of the great depression. Lots of rosy promises and outlooks being made when the various nations leaders knew full well that they were in the shit. Politicians don't seem to have changed much.
@ The Road Home OT but what the heck You wrote: Can you rephrase that second sentence please, I don't understand what you are getting at in regards to randomness?
You know, i say Bring It On! If they can crash it, and still are able to maintain a liquid and trading market ( ie. GOLD SPOT $866 - and i can buy Half Sovereigns for SPOT + 10% ( or even %20) ), than i, as a 33 year old male, with the years that i have left in my life, will just CONTINUE AND PILE IT UP - and we will see who will get tired off gold first - them crashing SPOT, or me buying gold at lower prices. If gold goes to sub $1000 figures, than to 'compensate' the next leg up would be $3500-$5000 within 18 mnths. Jig is up and its slowly unwinding. . .
OK, I'll go ahead without your translation. Here's mine. "When applied in scientific or mathematical fields, random means that the outcome of an individual experiment or event cannot be predicted, only the average outcome of many many events or experiments." Economics does seem to have patterns that repeat, but every so often there is an event that takes most by surprise, ie it wasn't predicted. If you want to base your financial decisions on averages, then that is fine as far as I'm concerned, but you must be aware that no scientific system can predict with certainty, the human behavioural product that is economics. Economics is not a science, economics is not a natural or physical phenomena. It is man-made. Without human interaction, it does not exist, and further, it is an inevitable consequence of human evolution. It is constructed solely by humans as an expression of their financial transactions. As such, it is a social system, , in much the same way as religion and politics, not a scientific system. It has evolved as a necessity in order to make human interaction more efficient. For this reason I prefer to follow current events and human behaviour as the main indicators as to how I make my financial decisions. This, as well as the advice of different "experts" and maybe past history. I don't plot ordered pairs or paw over Mandelbrot sets. (Source: out of my head - with reference to a couple of sites) @lucky luke: here, I've done the hard work and googled "penisphysics envy" for you and looky looky - first hit!!! http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1563882 I have just given you 43 seconds of my important life to help you learn. Enjoy and I hope it broadens your mind. Anyway, back on topic? If there is anyone with a foolproof scientific selection method for the horses, I'd love to hear from you.
And further more (re: patterns in economics) - I would suggest that the main reason that patterns repeat in economics is nothing to do with any scientific principle, but rather "herd mentality". Edit to add. Source: my head
edit: Ooops. Posted in the wrong thread! Meant to post on the GSR >57 thread. Moved now so all ok. As an aside, good to see this entire thread didn't disappear along with some earlier questionable posts. Thanks GP.
Did something just happen to make the USD suddenly attractive vs AUD and gold? I get af feeling we'll be psyched out like this for another week or do before QE3 is launched.
